PREDICTION OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS USING LARS-WG MODEL IN GHARE-SU BASIN

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KHOSRAVANIAN J.; ONAGH M.; GOUDARZI M.; HEJAZI S.A.

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Journal: Journal of Geography and Planning Year:2015 | Volume:19 | Issue:53 Page(s): 93-115

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Title

PREDICTION OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS USING LARS-WG MODEL IN GHARE-SU BASIN

Author(s)

KHOSRAVANIAN J. | ONAGH M. | GOUDARZI M. | HEJAZI S.A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ1

CLIMATIC SCENARIOSQ1

DOWN-SCALINGQ1

LARS-WGQ2

GHAREH-SUQ2

Abstract

A stochastic weather generator can serve as a computationally inexpensive tool to produce multiple-year CLIMATE CHANGE scenarios at the daily time scale which could incorporate changes both in mean climate and in climate variability as well. In this paper, LARS-WG model was used to downscale GCM outputs and then tp assess the performance for generated daily data of precipitation, minimum and maximum temperature and sunshine hours. Study area was Ghare-su basin in Gorgan and the station is called Gorgan synoptic station. The first step was running the model for the 1970-1999 periods. Then mean of observation and synthetic data were compared. T-test was used in the 99% significance level, and the difference between observation and synthetic data was not significant. Finally monthly mean of observation and synthetic data were compared using statistical parameters such as NA, RMSE & MAE. As a final result, it was found that performance of model was appropriate for generating daily above-listed data in Ghare-su basin. Thus, it was possible to predict the climatic parameters from GCM output using LARS-WG model. Also minimum and maximum temperatures had the highest and sunshine hours involved the lowest correlation. After ensuring performance of model to simulate above-mentioned parameters, this model used to predict future trends (in 2011-2030 and 2080-2099) with A2, A1B and B1 scenarios of the HadCM3 model was. Results showed that future temperature would increase 0.56-4.04 degrees centigrade while precipitation would increase 10.28-23.71%.

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APA: Copy

KHOSRAVANIAN, J., ONAGH, M., GOUDARZI, M., & HEJAZI, S.A.. (2015). PREDICTION OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS USING LARS-WG MODEL IN GHARE-SU BASIN. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY AND PLANNING, 19(53), 93-115. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/203661/en

Vancouver: Copy

KHOSRAVANIAN J., ONAGH M., GOUDARZI M., HEJAZI S.A.. PREDICTION OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS USING LARS-WG MODEL IN GHARE-SU BASIN. JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY AND PLANNING[Internet]. 2015;19(53):93-115. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/203661/en

IEEE: Copy

J. KHOSRAVANIAN, M. ONAGH, M. GOUDARZI, and S.A. HEJAZI, “PREDICTION OF CLIMATIC PARAMETERS USING LARS-WG MODEL IN GHARE-SU BASIN,” JOURNAL OF GEOGRAPHY AND PLANNING, vol. 19, no. 53, pp. 93–115, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/203661/en

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