Analysis of the Uncertainty of the Simulation-Optimization Model using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithm

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Norouzi Khatiri Khadije; NIKSOKHAN MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN; SARANG AMIN

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Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY Year:2019 | Volume:6 | Issue:1 Page(s): 137-151

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Title

Analysis of the Uncertainty of the Simulation-Optimization Model using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithm

Author(s)

Norouzi Khatiri Khadije | NIKSOKHAN MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN | SARANG AMIN | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

simulation-optimizationQ2

GroundwaterQ1

PSOQ2

uncertaintyQ1

Abstract

uncertainty analysis is an inseparable step in the process of hydrological modeling. Quantitative assessment of the uncertainty in the simulation model outputs and its parameters lead to an increase of confidence in the results of modeling and understanding of the sources of uncertainty. Due to the increasing use of Groundwater management model and predicting the behavior of the aquifer, this research is seeking to analyze the uncertainty in quantitative-qualitative aquifer simulation and its effect on optimization results. Using SWAT hydrologic model, the amount of recharge is specified and inserted into MODFLOW Groundwater flow model and MT3DMS transmission model. In this research, the DREAM (zs) algorithm (based on Monte Carlo Markov chain algorithms) was used to examine the uncertainty of MODFLOW model parameters. Then by linking the model with MOPSO, the optimum head and salinity are obtained in the aquifer. The results show that the accuracy of the inputs of the model leads to the desirability of the results in relation to the intended purpose of reducing the water table.

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APA: Copy

Norouzi Khatiri, Khadije, NIKSOKHAN, MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN, & SARANG, AMIN. (2019). Analysis of the Uncertainty of the Simulation-Optimization Model using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithm. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, 6(1 ), 137-151. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/254155/en

Vancouver: Copy

Norouzi Khatiri Khadije, NIKSOKHAN MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN, SARANG AMIN. Analysis of the Uncertainty of the Simulation-Optimization Model using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithm. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY[Internet]. 2019;6(1 ):137-151. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/254155/en

IEEE: Copy

Khadije Norouzi Khatiri, MOHAMMAD HOSSEIN NIKSOKHAN, and AMIN SARANG, “Analysis of the Uncertainty of the Simulation-Optimization Model using the Monte Carlo Markov Chain Algorithm,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, vol. 6, no. 1 , pp. 137–151, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/254155/en

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