Uncertainty analysis of temperature and precipitation variation influenced by climate change (Case Study: Southern Khorasan Province)

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SHAHIDI ALI; TAJBAKHSH MOHAMMAD; Khasheie Abbas; Khozeymehnejad Hossein; Jafarzadeh Ahmad

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Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY Year:2018 | Volume:4 | Issue:4 Page(s): 943-953

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Title

Uncertainty analysis of temperature and precipitation variation influenced by climate change (Case Study: Southern Khorasan Province)

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Keywords

bootstrappingQ3

LARS-WGQ2

Man-KendalQ2

pricipitationQ2

Abstract

For survey of climate change effects In this research fifteen GCMs models are used. By using downscaling method of LARS-WG large scale projections of GCMs output subgrided from high resolutions to local coordinate. For this aim, observation data (1990-2010) of synoptic stations in province are collected and was assumed as base period. Trend was fulfilled by Man-Kendal as well as uncertainty was carried out by bootstrapping function. Annual simulations of rainfall and temperature were used as entrance to Bootstrap. Confidence interval for each station was determined in 0. 09 levels. Results about performance of GCMs showed that almost all models haven’ t high ability to simulation of behavior of precipitation pattern. However performance of these models for simulation of variation of least and most temperature was very good. Results of trend analysis for stations and province showed that decrease of rainfall and increase of average temperature. By comparison of variation of temperature in future than historical period it is founded that minimum and maximum temperature will have 0. 6 decrease and 2 increase respectively. also uncertainty analysis showed that there are significant sources of uncertainty in simulation of meteorological components. Also annual precipitation variations in future are more severe than historical period.

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APA: Copy

SHAHIDI, ALI, TAJBAKHSH, MOHAMMAD, Khasheie, Abbas, Khozeymehnejad, Hossein, & Jafarzadeh, Ahmad. (2018). Uncertainty analysis of temperature and precipitation variation influenced by climate change (Case Study: Southern Khorasan Province). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, 4(4 ), 943-953. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/254199/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHAHIDI ALI, TAJBAKHSH MOHAMMAD, Khasheie Abbas, Khozeymehnejad Hossein, Jafarzadeh Ahmad. Uncertainty analysis of temperature and precipitation variation influenced by climate change (Case Study: Southern Khorasan Province). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY[Internet]. 2018;4(4 ):943-953. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/254199/en

IEEE: Copy

ALI SHAHIDI, MOHAMMAD TAJBAKHSH, Abbas Khasheie, Hossein Khozeymehnejad, and Ahmad Jafarzadeh, “Uncertainty analysis of temperature and precipitation variation influenced by climate change (Case Study: Southern Khorasan Province),” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF ECOHYDROLOGY, vol. 4, no. 4 , pp. 943–953, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/254199/en

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