A structural and comparative analysis for various trip production models, case study of Qazvin educational trips

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AHMADIPOUR F.; MAMDOOHI A.R.

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Journal: Modares Civil Engineering journal Year:2018 | Volume:18 | Issue:2 Page(s): 1-12

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Title

A structural and comparative analysis for various trip production models, case study of Qazvin educational trips

Author(s)

AHMADIPOUR F. | MAMDOOHI A.R. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

trip productionQ2

linear regressionQ2

TobitQ1

PoissonQ1

ordered LogitQ1

Abstract

Trip generation is the first stage of the conventional four-step travel forecasting framework that estimates the number of trips to and from a traffic analysis zone. Using linear regression model is common in this step and generates an acceptable level of performance from the perspective of transport planning, however this model does not incorporate traveler behavior, integer and non-negative nature of trips. To overcome these limitation, several models have been suggested: censored model such as Tobit for deleting negative values; count data models such as negative binomial and Poisson for deleting continuous and negative values; and discrete choice models such as ordered Logit and probit for incorporating traveler behavior and preventing continuous and negative values. Given the importance of trip generation stage and lack of sufficient and quantitative attention to various trip production models, this paper develops alternative trip production models. The purpose of this paper is a structural analysis for various trip production models and comparison of their performance in prediction. Four representative models (regression, Tobit, Poisson and ordered Logit) are applied to the educational trips in Qazvin city. The modeling unit employed in this study is the household. Research sample includes socio-economic attributes of 4734 households. 85 percent of the data is used for estimation and the rest for validation. The models are assessed by how closely they are able to replicate trips made by each household in the estimation and validation dataset. In order to compare the performance of models in prediction, each of the models is developed on estimation dataset, and used to predict the trips made by each household. Measures assessing how well the predicted number of trips made daily by each household by each of the models compared to the observed number of trip made by the household are evaluated and compared. The four measures for assessing performance are the mean absolute error, regression of the predicted number of household trips against the observed number of household trips in terms of goodness of fit and coefficient of determination, and plot of observed and predicted aggregate trip shares. Results of model building in Stata show that in all four models, number of school students, number of university students, and household car ownership are statistically significant. The performance of each of the models are different in terms of various measures (mean absolute error, regression of the predicted number of household trips against the observed number of household trips in terms of goodness of fit and coefficient of determination, and compare plot of observed and predicted aggregate trip shares). From mean absolute error perspective, ordered Logit and linear regression models have the best performance, but from goodness of fit regression of the predicted number of household trips against the observed number of household trips, Tobit models have the best performance. ordered Logit models have the best performance in terms of coefficient of determination of the predicted number of household trips against the observed number of household trips and comparison of predicted share of every trip rate level with observed share. The performance of each of the models are similar in prediction of validation and estimation dataset.

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APA: Copy

AHMADIPOUR, F., & MAMDOOHI, A.R.. (2018). A structural and comparative analysis for various trip production models, case study of Qazvin educational trips. MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL, 18(2 ), 1-12. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/256791/en

Vancouver: Copy

AHMADIPOUR F., MAMDOOHI A.R.. A structural and comparative analysis for various trip production models, case study of Qazvin educational trips. MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL[Internet]. 2018;18(2 ):1-12. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/256791/en

IEEE: Copy

F. AHMADIPOUR, and A.R. MAMDOOHI, “A structural and comparative analysis for various trip production models, case study of Qazvin educational trips,” MODARES CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL, vol. 18, no. 2 , pp. 1–12, 2018, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/256791/en

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