An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production

Q: How can I download an article?

To download an article from SID, first log in to the site, search for the article title, and click on the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I download an ISI article?

To download an ISI article on SID, enter the keyword or article title in the search bar, view the relevant results, click on the desired article, and select the 'Download Article' option.

Q: How can I access the SID database?

To access the SID database, visit SID.ir, create an account, and log in to access scientific resources.

Q: Is downloading articles from SID free?

Some articles on SID are available for free, while others require payment. Details are specified on the article's page.

Sheykhan Abbas; Hafezi Reza; Omrani Mehdi; Naser Akhavan Amir; SAEEDI AHMAD

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: Modeling in Engineering Year:2019 | Volume:17 | Issue:56 Page(s): 157-168

Download Full-Text

Persian Verion

View:

508

Download:

Cites:

Information Journal Paper

Title

An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production

Author(s)

Keywords

Scenario PlanningQ1

Fuzzy Cognitive MapQ1

IranQ1

Post-SanctionQ1

Oil ProductionQ1

Abstract

In today's competitive dynamic world/markets, providing a desirable framework for exploring future perspectives is a crucial challenge to support robust decision making and proper policy making. This research proposes a novel framework that develops plausible future energy scenarios through the Fuzzy Cognitive Map (FCM) technique. As a new method in Scenario Planning, FCM model attempts to present a set of rational, reliable and credible plausible scenarios together with analyzing dynamic behaviors of parameters. The integrated FCM-based approach encompasses STEEP analysis to identify parameters, Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) to determine key drivers, Morphological analysis for scenario selection, and FCM model to develop semi-quantitative scenarios. This new approach for scenario development brings together the benefits of both quantitative and qualitative analysis and it is not limited to the investigation of few pre-defined scenario drivers. As a research case, the proposed methodology is examined to detect plausible trends for Iran's Oil Production in the post sanction era. The implemented FCM simulations indicate that in three scenarios Oil Production increases and growth will be significant in the first two scenarios. The fourth projection is the most pessimistic scenario that can be imagined in the Post-Sanction era where the country faces massive investment backlogs.

Cites

No record.

References

No record.

Cite

APA: Copy

Sheykhan, Abbas, Hafezi, Reza, Omrani, Mehdi, Naser Akhavan, Amir, & SAEEDI, AHMAD. (2019). An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production. JOURNAL OF MODELING IN ENGINEERING, 17(56 ), 157-168. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/362142/en

Vancouver: Copy

Sheykhan Abbas, Hafezi Reza, Omrani Mehdi, Naser Akhavan Amir, SAEEDI AHMAD. An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production. JOURNAL OF MODELING IN ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2019;17(56 ):157-168. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/362142/en

IEEE: Copy

Abbas Sheykhan, Reza Hafezi, Mehdi Omrani, Amir Naser Akhavan, and AHMAD SAEEDI, “An Integrated Model to Develop Semi-Quantitative Scenarios Using a hybrid Method Based on Fuzzy Cognitive Map: A Case Study of Iranian Oil Production,” JOURNAL OF MODELING IN ENGINEERING, vol. 17, no. 56 , pp. 157–168, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/362142/en

Related Journal Papers