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Information Journal Paper

Title

Analysis of the Effect of Microcredit on Rural Sustainable Development Components: Application of Propensity Score Regression Approach and Bootstrap Algorithm

Pages

  51-93

Abstract

 Introduction Sustainable rural development in the comprehensive and systematic process of regional development programs is one of the basic features and criteria that lead to the continuity and sustainability of these programs. Also, the sustainability of regional development programs in rural areas is affected by the dynamics and complex relationships of sustainable development aspects, so that sustainable development is now considered in many developing countries as the main economic approach for reducing poverty and improving living standards and enhancing environmental protection. Therefore, the use of appropriate tools to achieve the goals of sustainable development in rural areas has been very important. In this regard, the Microcredits has been proposed as an effective tool in sustainable rural development. So the purpose of this study is to answer the question of what will be the impact of Microcredit on the economic, social and environmental sustainability of rural households? Methodology The present study is an applied research in terms of purpose and a descriptive-survey in terms of method. The research tool was a questionnaire and its statistical population was 861 households in Cheshmeh-Gol and Yaghootein villages in 2017. The sample size is estimated at 309 households based on the Cochran method. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to measure the reliability of the questionnaire. In this study, the analysis of the effects of a specific action or policy on the observations has been done in two stages. In the first stage, a Probit model has been carried out to estimate the propensity scores and analyze the factors affecting household participation in Microcredit programs. In the second step, a combination of propensity scoring regression and the Bootstrap Algorithm was used to estimate the effect of Microcredit on the different Aspects of sustainable development. Also, four methods of Z-Score, Morris, McGranahan, and factor analysis have been used to construct the indices of economic, social and environmental sustainability of the household. Finally, the strength of the propensity score matching (PSM) model in terms of tendency to latent bias was investigated using Rosenbaum bounds Sensitivity analysis. Results and Discussion The analysis of the results in this research is set in four stages. In the first stage, the results of the Probit model showed that age, experience of household head, and savings reduce the probability of access to Microcredit. By contrast, variables of shock experience, sown area, access to extension services and number of household sponsors increase the probability of access to Microcredit. In the second stage, assessment of the balance of auxiliary variables showed that the hypothesis of balance of auxiliary variables was confirmed and the bias in auxiliary variables was significantly reduced. In the third stage, the results of the combination of PSM approach and Bootstrap Algorithm showed that Microcredit had a positive effect on the economic and social indices, however, it would affect the household environment index negatively. In addition, at this stage, the confidence interval was estimated to increase the validity of the results. In the final stage, the Rosenbaum Sensitivity analysis was done which revealed that the sensitivity of the results of economic and social indices, even with a fourfold increase in gamma, is still significant. Also, the probability of a difference in the treatment group due to unexplored factors (or gamma) should be increased to 3. 2 to change the effect of Microcredit on the environmental index. Conclusion and Suggestions Given the importance of Microcredit at the rural communities due to the process of economic development (through increasing income, improving the economic situation of businesses, growth and reconstruction of rural economies), social development (through improving the level of awareness, increasing literacy, increasing the rate of participation and improvement of social structures of rural households), and also, its impact on the reducing of negative effects on the environment) It is recommended that the government should first support microfinance institutions in poor, remote and deprived areas; Secondly, provide a legal and environmentally friendly framework to expand Microcredit; thirdly, improve the skill and knowledge level of borrowers by providing additional services through cooperatives and extension services and institutions.

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