AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS (ECONOMICS AND AGRICULTURE JOURNAL)
Year:2020 | Volume:14 | Issue:1|Papers Count:6

Introduction The agriculture sector is one of the most important sectors of the Iranian economy that various factors affect its growth. Drought is one of the natural factors affecting this sector. Nowadays, knowledge is the main factor of growth, production and solving different problems in different countries. Research and development (R&D) costs and the rule of law index are component of the knowledge economy. The purpose of this study was to investigate the impact of drought, R&D costs and rule of law on the growth rate of Iran's agriculture sector. For this purpose, the casual Bayesian network method was used and data were collected for the period 2002-2017. Materials and Method In this study, casual Bayesian network method was used to investigate the effect of different variables on Iran's agriculture growth. The Bayesian network provides a framework for showing the uncertainty of variables in the network, such as the effects of variables not included in the network. A common way to overcome the uncertainty of variables in the network is to measure the confidence level of variable on the condition of its parent value. The process of measuring confidence is the same as determining the prior probability of a variable given the value of the parent in the network. The Bayesian network consists of two stages, qualitative and quantitative. In the qualitative stage, the graphical structure of the network is designed, which includes directional and non-rotational connections and expresses the dependent relationships between the variables. Directional connections are arrows pointing in a certain direction, and the non-rotational connections are meant to be a way to start from one point and pass through a series of directional connections and back to the starting point of existence. Then, in the quantitative stage, the dependent relationships between the variables are expressed as conditional probability distributions. The most important point to determine the elasticity of the connections on the network, is to determine the probability distribution. In this study, variables such as agricultural growth rate, water productivity in agriculture, drought, water use in agriculture, carbon dioxide emissions, R&D costs, rule of law index and population were considered to construct causal network. One-way sensitivity analysis was also performed on the causal network. Results and discussion The results showed that increasing growth rate of R&D costs and the rule of law index and placing Iran in wet conditions increase the water productivity in agriculture and growth of this sector. Increasing R&D costs showed the best performance in improving the drought index. With higher growth rate of R&D costs (high probability, by 100%), the highest probability of drought index with the probability of 24. 2% was in the high status. The rule of law scenario showed the best performance in reducing water use in agriculture. So, with higher growth rate of the rule of law index (high probability, by 100%), the highest probability of growth rate of water use in agriculture with the probability of 50. 5% was in the low status. Therefore, increasing R&D costs and targeting them, as well as enforcing laws and policies in various fields such as water resources can help to increase water productivity in agriculture sector and growth of this sector. Suggestion Therefore, in order to improve drought, it is recommended to increase research and development costs in various fields such as water. The government also proposes new policies aimed at reducing water use in the agriculture sector, increasing production, thereby increasing the income of farmers and increasing the productivity of inputs and thus increasing the profits of farmers. As a result of drought-related problems and decreasing water use in the agriculture sector, the growth of the agriculture sector is also increasing.

Introduction The growing population of the country, along with changes in global prices of agricultural products, has made food security one of the most important priorities of the country's agricultural sector. On the other hand, the study of the historical trend of energy and protein supply between 1989 and 2017, among basic food products, the share of wheat in the per capita supply of energy and protein has been 40 and 44 percent, respectively. Since the selection and investment of technologies and industries, especially the use of emerging technologies, regardless of capabilities, advantages and disadvantages will cause inefficient use of capital, so determine the priority of inventory, science, technology and technology, taking into account storage and conditions. And looking at the future, it becomes necessary. Given the importance of wheat in the country and the need to plan to provide part of the energy of the people's food basket through wheat, the aim of this study is to study the future of wheat in the country up to the horizon of 1420. For this purpose, first the theoretical foundations of future research were discussed and then the results of the study were examined by presenting the research method. Method According to the aim of the study, which is the future of wheat research in the country, and according to the available information, the future framework of Veros 2012 was selected. The steps in the framework of foresight (Voros, 2012) are as follows: A-Input (environmental scanning): In the first stage, project data are examined using future research methods, environmental scanning and field research, library study, documents, books, articles and internal and external reports. B. Analysis: At this stage, several environmental components affecting the agricultural sector are analyzed, and among these, the main and opposite currents of influence, emerging issues and weak signs are summarized and determined. C-Interpretation: At this stage, the effects of environmental components on agriculture are directly and indirectly monitored. Using the prophecies and the outcome of the environmental components, the components are identified and finally these works are deepened based on different scenarios and finally recounted in the form of several selected scenarios. In order to implement each of the parts of this framework, executive methods are needed. In the input stage, PESTELD analysis was used for environmental scanning, and in the experimental analysis, interpretation and interpretation stage, the global business model (GBN) was used. Results and discussion Out of the total results, three propulsion systems, climate change, wheat patrol technology and wheat price were selected as the proponents for scenario writing. It is worth noting that choosing these three propulsions does not mean abandoning other propulsions. The three drivers of climate change in three ways, the positive effects, the current trend and the negative effects of climate change, the pioneers of wheat cultivation technology in three ways, the continuation of the current trend and the lack of attention to improving wheat cultivation technology and the price of wheat are two dimensions of wheat price liberalization. The guaranteed price is selected. Three desirable scenarios were selected: Scenario 1-Towards Food Security: In this scenario, by 1420, the cultivated area has decreased by 26% compared to the current situation of wheat cultivation, but in contrast to the combined yield of rainfed and irrigated wheat, it has increased by about 30%, which has led to an increase. Is produced. This increase in production has been accompanied by a decrease in per capita consumption of wheat to about 40 percent and wheat waste to 44 percent. These cases have led to self-sufficiency in wheat and its export. Improvements in the use of new cultivars, accurate agriculture and overall improvement of wheat cultivation technology by 18, 18 and 50 percent, respectively, compared to the current situation have caused water consumption per hectare of wheat cultivation to decrease by 27 percent. . Scenario 2-Never change: In this scenario, the area under cultivation will be reduced by 11% compared to the current situation. has it. Using the growth of startups, wheat subsidies, private sector organizations, the direct effects of climate change, crop rotation and overall improvement in wheat production technology by 20, 13, 5, 10. 5 and 20 percent, respectively, compared to the current situation in the country, in some Self-sufficiency in production has been achieved for years, but water consumption per wheat crop is still a problem, and there are concerns about wheat waste. Scenario 3-Historical reversal: In this scenario, due to social pressures and meeting the nutritional needs of wheat cultivation, the yield did not decrease much and decreased by only 4% compared to the current situation, while wheat yield increased by only 4% due to lack of attention. Per capita consumption of wheat, which had a downward trend until 1396, has become almost an upward trend, and the price of wheat is still determined by Dobat, which has made the cultivation pattern in the country ineffective. Suggestion In general, the purpose of developing scenarios is not to provide an accurate prediction of the future, but rather to be a tool for better and more coherent thinking about the future. None of the study scenarios are completely acceptable or undeniable. Overall, there is a very good picture of wheat in the country in the scenario of "food security prevention", there is a very good interaction between policymakers, research centers and farmers. The market and price play a decisive role in wheat, and the government achieves its food security and security policy goals with targeted support. Energy and protein are provided according to the standard patterns of the Ministry of Health, and the problems and problems of wheat in the country are solved by relying on the knowledge and technologies of the graduates of this field. The change scenario is never a scenario in which the country has not made significant changes in the way the country's agricultural sector is managed, and short-term policy decisions are still in place in the ruling sector, and wheat is in line with the implemented policies.

Introduction Sustainable rural development in the comprehensive and systematic process of regional development programs is one of the basic features and criteria that lead to the continuity and sustainability of these programs. Also, the sustainability of regional development programs in rural areas is affected by the dynamics and complex relationships of sustainable development aspects, so that sustainable development is now considered in many developing countries as the main economic approach for reducing poverty and improving living standards and enhancing environmental protection. Therefore, the use of appropriate tools to achieve the goals of sustainable development in rural areas has been very important. In this regard, the microcredits has been proposed as an effective tool in sustainable rural development. So the purpose of this study is to answer the question of what will be the impact of microcredit on the economic, social and environmental sustainability of rural households? Methodology The present study is an applied research in terms of purpose and a descriptive-survey in terms of method. The research tool was a questionnaire and its statistical population was 861 households in Cheshmeh-Gol and Yaghootein villages in 2017. The sample size is estimated at 309 households based on the Cochran method. Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used to measure the reliability of the questionnaire. In this study, the analysis of the effects of a specific action or policy on the observations has been done in two stages. In the first stage, a Probit model has been carried out to estimate the propensity scores and analyze the factors affecting household participation in microcredit programs. In the second step, a combination of propensity scoring regression and the Bootstrap algorithm was used to estimate the effect of microcredit on the different aspects of sustainable development. Also, four methods of Z-Score, Morris, McGranahan, and factor analysis have been used to construct the indices of economic, social and environmental sustainability of the household. Finally, the strength of the propensity score matching (PSM) model in terms of tendency to latent bias was investigated using Rosenbaum bounds sensitivity analysis. Results and Discussion The analysis of the results in this research is set in four stages. In the first stage, the results of the Probit model showed that age, experience of household head, and savings reduce the probability of access to microcredit. By contrast, variables of shock experience, sown area, access to extension services and number of household sponsors increase the probability of access to microcredit. In the second stage, assessment of the balance of auxiliary variables showed that the hypothesis of balance of auxiliary variables was confirmed and the bias in auxiliary variables was significantly reduced. In the third stage, the results of the combination of PSM approach and bootstrap algorithm showed that microcredit had a positive effect on the economic and social indices, however, it would affect the household environment index negatively. In addition, at this stage, the confidence interval was estimated to increase the validity of the results. In the final stage, the Rosenbaum sensitivity analysis was done which revealed that the sensitivity of the results of economic and social indices, even with a fourfold increase in gamma, is still significant. Also, the probability of a difference in the treatment group due to unexplored factors (or gamma) should be increased to 3. 2 to change the effect of microcredit on the environmental index. Conclusion and Suggestions Given the importance of microcredit at the rural communities due to the process of economic development (through increasing income, improving the economic situation of businesses, growth and reconstruction of rural economies), social development (through improving the level of awareness, increasing literacy, increasing the rate of participation and improvement of social structures of rural households), and also, its impact on the reducing of negative effects on the environment) It is recommended that the government should first support microfinance institutions in poor, remote and deprived areas; Secondly, provide a legal and environmentally friendly framework to expand microcredit; thirdly, improve the skill and knowledge level of borrowers by providing additional services through cooperatives and extension services and institutions.

Introduction Customer loyalty is defined as a customer's repeat purchase behavior while including the emotional commitment or expression of a favorable attitude toward the service provider. Since the cost of attracting a new customer is about six times that of retaining an existing customer, creating customer loyalty saves marketing costs. Finally, it can be said that a large number of loyal customers to a brand is the property of the company. Edible oil is one of the most important foods consumed in the Iranian household basket, that’ s why there are numerous brands in the edible oil market such as Tabiat, Ladan, Bahar, and etc. Due to the importance of this product in Iranian cuisine and the high proportion of volume consumed per purchase, consumers are more sensitive to product selection. Loyalty literature in the world has a long history and numerous studies have been carried out in various fields such as cosmetics, smartphones, restaurant types and cars. The food industry has also been a focus of loyalty in the literature, but this area has been less studied by domestic researchers. Theoretical and empirical analysis of the loyalty literature reveals that consumers are the key to corporate success. Because in the competitive market for food products, consumers are simply making more purchases and introducing more products and brands to others, resulting in increased market share and more profitability. The purpose of this study was to investigate the factors affecting edible oil brand loyalty among Tehran citizens. Methodology Multinomial Logit (MNL) Model was used to investigate the factors affecting customer loyalty. The reason for this choice is non-ordinal Brown’ s (1953) classification. Therefore, the results of multinomial Logit are appropriate in comparison with ordered Logit model. The loyalty variable is classified into four groups according to the Brown's (1953) loyalty category: (1) consumers who always use the one specific brand; (2) consumers who use two or three specific brands; (3) consumers who use various brands; (4) Consumers who brand does not matter in their purchase. The study sample consisted of edible oil consumers in Tehran. According to Cochran's formula with a confidence level of 95 percent, the sample size was 230 people. So, 250 face to face questionnaires were completed to ensure reliability. Results and Discussion According to the data analysis of the questionnaire, the average consumer consumes 2. 5 kg of edible oil per month. Of the 135 edible oil brands available in the market, consumers know up to 8 and at least 1 edible oil brand. Also, 91% of people also care about the brand of edible oil which they use. The most frequent group is the "consumption of two or three specific brands" with a frequency of 62 percent, whereas “ consumption of a specific brand" group has a 30 percent frequency. As mentioned in methodology section, multinomial Logit model is used in this paper. The first step in estimating multinomial Logit model is to designate a group of dependent variables as the base group. In this study, the second category of dependent variable consisting of people consuming two or three specific brands of edible oil is considered as the base group and the probability of loyalty of the other two groups is compared with this group. According to the results, if the brand of edible oil consumption is important for a consumer, the probability of its inclusion in the "consumption of a specific brand" group increases by 0. 283 units. If the price is important for oil consumers, the probability of consumers being relatively priced on their loyalty in the "consumption of a specific brand" group will decrease by 0. 076, respectively. The results also show that the probability of consumers being placed on the price of their loyalty is significantly reduced in the "consumption of a specific brand" and "consumption of various brands" groups of 0. 270 and 0. 059, respectively. The results of the variable quality effect indicate the fact that, the importance of brand quality variables for consumers increases their probability of being in the "consumption of a specific brand" group by 0. 137 units. Conclusion This paper aims to investigate the effective factors on enhancing loyalty level of edible oil consumer in Tehran city, Iran. For this aim, multinomial Logit (MNL) model is used. Based on the results of brand importance for the consumer, quality and packaging (at a very effective level) have a positive effect on the loyalty of the group "consumption of a specific brand". Among the variables of the first group of loyalty, the variables of brand importance, quality, number of known brands, price (at the very effective level) and price benefits (at the very effective level) at the 10% level were significant. In relation to the third group of dependent variables, the variables of packing (at both levels of effectiveness), brand access, priority of cash benefits, share of cost of edible oil, gender, number of known brands and quality have a positive effect on consumer loyalty. In the "consumption of various brands" group, five variables of packing (at the highly effective level), brand access, price (at both levels of effectiveness), and price benefits (at the approximately effective level) were significant in the model. Based on the results, the following suggestion is proposed: Given the negative effect of knowing more brands on consumer loyalty, applying proper marketing policies in introducing the brand and its distinctive features can be an effective factor in customer retention. Effective efforts in this area include choosing a simple, creative and effective brand for ease of remembering and allocating a slogan to connect consumers with the brand.

Introduction Optimal use of inputs and increasing energy efficiency are economically and environmentally important for sustainable agricultural production and lead to less production costs also, less negative effects on the environment. Considering the importance of efficient use of energy inputs, this study aims to examine the energy balance of sugar beet production in Iran and compares the economic and environmental dimensions of expanding sugar beet production. Sugar beet is one of the agricultural products that consumes a lot of energy due to the need for many farm operations. Use of old agricultural machinery technology and lack of access to technical facilities increase greenhouse gas emission in sugar beet production process. The entry of monogram seeds into the sugar beet production increased share of mechanized sugar beet cultivation to more than 70% of the area under cultivation of this crop. Also, this increased the yield of sugar beet from about 22 tons to about 49 tons per hectare. In 2016 the amount of sugar beet production in Iran was about 6 million tons. The provinces of West Azerbaijan, Khorasan Razavi, Kermanshah, Fars and Hamedan, with more than 80% share, are the largest producers of sugar beet in the country. This study seeks to answer these questions: What is the net energy gain in Iran's sugar beet production system? What are the indices of energy efficiency in sugar beet production process? Which one of the sugar beet production inputs is involved in more energy consumption and more carbon dioxide emission? Is the sugar beet production increase desirable economically and environmentally? Materials and Methods To analyze economic and environmental dimensions of sugar beet production, production function was estimated by using converted values of inputs and output to energy equivalents per hectare. Panel data of five provinces of Hamedan, Kermanshah, Khorasan, Fars and West Azerbaijan for 2000-2015 period was used for production function estimation. The marginal physical product of each input (MPP) was used to find the output sensitivity to the energy inputs. To evaluate the efficiency of energy consumption, four main indices: energy ratio, specific energy, energy productivity and net energy gain were used. Another index was used to answer this question that is it acceptable environmentally to add an input with the aim of achieving higher economic performance? This index evaluated the changes in amount of emitted CO2 after increasing input usage. Results and Discussion The calculated efficiency indices showed that the highest energy inputs are chemical fertilizer, machinery and labor, respectively. Also, with a net energy gain of about 643 GJ, 23. 53 energy ratio and 1. 4 MJ/Kg energy productivity, the increase in sugar beet production is desirable in viewpoint of energy balance. The Cobb-Douglas production function was estimated using the generalized least squares method for sugar beet. The coefficients of estimated model showed that only machinery and farmyard manure were used in the economic range. The energy inputs of seeds and chemical fertilizers had negative significant effects on the energy output per hectare. The MPPs of two inputs of machinery and farmyard manure were higher than other inputs. Also, changes in green house emission index showed that an increase in sugar beet yield using these two inputs causes less CO2 emission. The highest amounts of negative MPPs were allocated to seed, chemical fertilizers and pesticides, respectively. The coefficient of Dummy variable showed that the yield of sugar beet in Fars and Khorasan provinces is significantly lower than other provinces. The sum of the significant coefficients of the energy inputs was equal to 0. 044, which indicated a decreasing returns to scale. Suggestions Based on the results of this study, to increase economic and environmental efficiency, some policy instruments and programs should be considered to reduce the use of chemical fertilizers and, if necessary, substitute farmyard manure for chemical fertilizer by policymakers and producers. These programs may include reducing subsidies and realizing the price of chemical fertilizers. The positive, high and significant coefficient of the machinery and relationship between mechanization and monogram seeds indicate the existence of capacities to expand the mechanization of sugar beet cultivation. To expand mechanized cultivation and optimal use of monogram seeds it is suggested that incentives be used in production contracts. Zero labor productivity requires policymakers to pay attention to the issue of unemployment in the agricultural sector. Adopt policies to create sustainable employment and diversify rural activities are recommended to use labor at optimum level in agricultural production.

Introduction How to transmit price of agricultural products and its changes are considered as one of the most important indices of market performance and the main means of resource allocation in the economy. Assessing how price changes are transmitted among various market levels is important for production management and marketing. A distortion in the price transmission mechanism causes the market system not to function properly and asymmetric price transmission can disrupt price signals and force the government to intervene in the market to redistribute resources. Materials and methods In this research, vertical price transmission between wholesale and retail levels of pulses in Fars province was investigated during 1999: 03-2017: 02. The HEGY unit root test and unit root test with structural break were used due to the nature of the data studied and the occurrence of structural break in the variables. Also, due to the spillover effects in the market of alternative products, the retail prices of the alternatives were also included in the models. The error correction approach with structural break was used to investigate price transmission patterns. Results and Discussion The results showed that in the short term the price transmission is asymmetric for tiny pea and large lentil and symmetric for large pea and tiny lentil. In the long term, price transmission from retail to wholesale level is asymmetric for pea but from wholesale to retail level for lentil, that could be due to the continuation of negative effects of economic sanctions and high pulses storage capability as well as existence of other factors including market power for pea and increasing demand for pulses such as lentil that is substitute for other protein products such as red meat. Moreover, due to high inflation and creating price expectations in the society, it seems that the increase in prices for many goods is naturally absorbed in the society and this issue endangers the welfare of different groups by increasing the benefits of marketing factors. Also, the spillover effect of prices on alternative products have encouraged consumers to consume products with lower prices and quality, the price spillover effect on wholesale and retail levels are relatively stronger than alternative products and have caused the most price volatility.