Forecasting Sustainable Urban Transportation Demand for Management and Improving the Safety of Routs by System Dynamics: A Case Study of Tehran

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Noroozian Maleki Pegah; IZADBAKHSH HAMIDREZA; ghanbartehrani Nasim

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Journal: JOURNAL OF RESILIENT CITY Year:2020 | Volume:2 | Issue:8 Page(s): 00-00

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Title

Forecasting Sustainable Urban Transportation Demand for Management and Improving the Safety of Routs by System Dynamics: A Case Study of Tehran

Author(s)

Noroozian Maleki Pegah | IZADBAKHSH HAMIDREZA | ghanbartehrani Nasim | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

forecasting travel demand

sustainable urban transportation

improving safety

policies analysis

system dynamics ph

Abstract

Today’ s urbanization growth is causing crowds, and the people in urban zone often deals the travel demand in order to carry out daily activities. In general, travel demand by personal transportation is higher than public transportation such as subway and bus in Tehran, that identify as problem. Additionally, due to the high demand for personal transportation, the number of injuries, accidents, and fatalities will be high, so improving the safety of citizens on the urban routs is critical. In present study, the system dynamics approach is proposed to investigate the behavior of variables that affect the transportation’ s modes demand. The structure of system dynamics model for forecasting travel demand consists of four subsystems including population, travel demand, investment in transportation, and traffic congestion subsystems. Based on subsystems, the stock and flow diagram is built, after implementing mathematical relations is simulated, finally, the model is validated. In this regard, several policy scenarios are predefined for increasing the demand of public and rail transportation, and decreasing the demand of personal transportation such as 1) reducing and increasing public transportation fare, 2) reducing and increasing rail transportation fare, 3) increasing investment in public and rail transportation and 4) controlling fuel price. According to this study, controlling fares and fuel price are more effective policies for travel demand management.

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APA: Copy

Noroozian Maleki, Pegah, IZADBAKHSH, HAMIDREZA, & ghanbartehrani, Nasim. (2020). Forecasting Sustainable Urban Transportation Demand for Management and Improving the Safety of Routs by System Dynamics: A Case Study of Tehran. JOURNAL OF RESILIENT CITY, 2(8 ), 00-00. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/386908/en

Vancouver: Copy

Noroozian Maleki Pegah, IZADBAKHSH HAMIDREZA, ghanbartehrani Nasim. Forecasting Sustainable Urban Transportation Demand for Management and Improving the Safety of Routs by System Dynamics: A Case Study of Tehran. JOURNAL OF RESILIENT CITY[Internet]. 2020;2(8 ):00-00. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/386908/en

IEEE: Copy

Pegah Noroozian Maleki, HAMIDREZA IZADBAKHSH, and Nasim ghanbartehrani, “Forecasting Sustainable Urban Transportation Demand for Management and Improving the Safety of Routs by System Dynamics: A Case Study of Tehran,” JOURNAL OF RESILIENT CITY, vol. 2, no. 8 , pp. 00–00, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/386908/en

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