Study of Current and Future Meteorological Drought Conditions Using the CMIP5 Model under RCP Scenarios

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MESBAH ZADEH T.; MIRAKBARI M.; MOHSENI SARAVI M.; KHOSRAVI H.; Mortezaie Farizhendi GH.

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Journal: IRANIAN JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING Year:2019 | Volume:13 | Issue:46 Page(s): 11-21

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Title

Study of Current and Future Meteorological Drought Conditions Using the CMIP5 Model under RCP Scenarios

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Keywords

CanESM2

Meteorological drought

SPI

SPE

Abstract

Reducing or increasing the climatic parameters such as temperature and rainfall as a result of the climate change process, causes a variety of droughts. In this study, the effect of climate change on Meteorological drought is investigated in Yazd province. For this purpose, the drought time series were determined in two periods: historical (1961-2005) and future (2017-2100) by SPI and SPEI. Historical data obtained from Yazd's synoptic station and the future data were generated by the CanESM2 model under RCP scenarios. Drought characteristics such as severity, duration and frequency were extracted based on run theory in order to compare and evaluate the trend of drought changes. The results showed case study experiences more severe droughts in the future than historical period based on SPI under 3 RCP scenarios while based on SPEI under RCP2. 6 and RCP4. 5, the drought characteristics decrease in the future compared with historical period and under RCP8. 5, the severity and duration of the drought increase. The severity-frequency and duration-frequency curve showed that increasing the return period increases the severity and duration of drought.

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APA: Copy

MESBAH ZADEH, T., MIRAKBARI, M., MOHSENI SARAVI, M., KHOSRAVI, H., & Mortezaie Farizhendi, GH.. (2019). Study of Current and Future Meteorological Drought Conditions Using the CMIP5 Model under RCP Scenarios. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, 13(46 ), 11-21. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/964851/en

Vancouver: Copy

MESBAH ZADEH T., MIRAKBARI M., MOHSENI SARAVI M., KHOSRAVI H., Mortezaie Farizhendi GH.. Study of Current and Future Meteorological Drought Conditions Using the CMIP5 Model under RCP Scenarios. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING[Internet]. 2019;13(46 ):11-21. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/964851/en

IEEE: Copy

T. MESBAH ZADEH, M. MIRAKBARI, M. MOHSENI SARAVI, H. KHOSRAVI, and GH. Mortezaie Farizhendi, “Study of Current and Future Meteorological Drought Conditions Using the CMIP5 Model under RCP Scenarios,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF WATERSHED MANAGEMENT SCIENCE AND ENGINEERING, vol. 13, no. 46 , pp. 11–21, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/964851/en

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