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Information Journal Paper

Title

Identifying the main drivers of urban development using futuristic approach (Case study: Tehran metropolis)

Pages

  16-32

Abstract

 Introduction: Today, a different view of the future has caused the intelligent man not to seek to find the future, but to build his desired future by using various tools. Futurism as an emerging discipline has received a great deal of attention in recent decades from governments, academia, and businesses, and the achievements of futurists are now very important in the decision-making of governments, institutions, and private companies. Examining the studies conducted in the field of Urban development, it was found that no research in this field in the field of sociology of development and economics has been conducted so far, and this shows the uniqueness of the subject. In order to study and identify the different dimensions and characteristics of Urban development, especially Tehran, in the articles and research conducted so far, an in-depth study was conducted to obtain sufficient knowledge of the various dimensions of the issue. Background examination shows that modeling and identification of key forces has not been done so far. Materials and Methodes: The present study has identified the main drivers of Urban development in Tehran metropolis using the interaction analysis technique, which is one of the common and accepted methods of Futurism, and using MicMac software. In order to analyze the data, a futuristic toolbox including expert opinion, trend analysis in the field of urbanization and urbanization, interaction analysis and scenario planning has been used. For this purpose, by studying the sources of domestic and foreign libraries, all the factors affecting the development of Tehran were examined and after preparing a list of these factors, in research sessions with experts, the research findings were completed and a questionnaire was developed based on them. And the poll process began. First, the main factors of the category of city and urbanization are identified and in the next stage, using the method of interaction analysis, the interaction of these factors on each other is measured and key factors are identified. In the next stage, after selecting the Delphi methods to determine the relationship between the selected indicators, the first stage Delphi questionnaire was prepared and presented to the experts. Then, according to the answers of the first stage of Delphi, the questionnaire of the second stage was designed and the required data were extracted by referring to the mentioned elites and experts. Finally, with the help of software (MicMac) and interaction analysis method, data were analyzed and research scenarios were presented. Findings: According to the research findings, according to the results of Mick Mac, four factors of integrated urban management, economic situation, poverty and good urban governance were identified as the first four factors influencing the system. According to the score of direct and indirect influence of 51 factors, finally the first 12 factors affecting the future of Tehran metropolis development were selected to determine the final uncertainties and were scored according to the importance and predictability. And the drivers that had the most uncertainty in the future development of Tehran in order to present future scenarios of Tehran development were identified that the three variables of integrated urban management, economic status and poverty were selected as the most influential variables and uncertainty. According to studies, among the 15 key factors with high net impact, considering that the two variables of social capital and social harms are located in the southeastern part of the chart and their impact is low, as well as improving worn-out tissue in the area of independent variables with impact and the impact is low, key factors can be omitted to expand the selection. So in the end, 12 factors remained, of which 12 final key factors, 4 variables are in the first zone or influential variables, and 8 variables are in the second zone or twodimensional variables, of which 2 are economic status and poverty in the dual zone, 4 The variables of social and spatial justice, good urban governance, responsibility of citizens and promotion of education and culture are in the risk area and the two variables of participation and security are in the target area. Also, no factors were selected from other influential and independent areas. Also, based on the type, out of the 12 key factors and final drivers, 6 were economic factors, 4 social factors and 2 managerial factors, which indicate the role and importance of economic factors in the development of Tehran and its development prospects. Conclusion: The study of trends in the metropolis of Tehran, which has been done in the current situation studies, the views of high-level projects and points of view and the results of interviews with all managers in Tehran indicate compliance with the results of the futures questionnaire in identifying and determining key factors affecting the future, Metropolitan development. Inequality in development and the problems in the metropolis of Tehran will more or less continue until the resource allocation system succeeds in achieving spatial balances, justice in space, and economic and social justice.

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    APA: Copy

    Alamati, Zeinab, KALDI, ALIREZA, & NAVABAKHSH, MEHRDAD. (2022). Identifying the main drivers of urban development using futuristic approach (Case study: Tehran metropolis). JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS AND PLANNING, 3(1 ), 16-32. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/985935/en

    Vancouver: Copy

    Alamati Zeinab, KALDI ALIREZA, NAVABAKHSH MEHRDAD. Identifying the main drivers of urban development using futuristic approach (Case study: Tehran metropolis). JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS AND PLANNING[Internet]. 2022;3(1 ):16-32. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/985935/en

    IEEE: Copy

    Zeinab Alamati, ALIREZA KALDI, and MEHRDAD NAVABAKHSH, “Identifying the main drivers of urban development using futuristic approach (Case study: Tehran metropolis),” JOURNAL OF URBAN ECONOMICS AND PLANNING, vol. 3, no. 1 , pp. 16–32, 2022, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/985935/en

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