ENERGY ECONOMICS REVIEW
Year:2007 | Volume:4 | Issue:13|Papers Count:6

The trends and developments of energy consumption and planning for energy supply is an inevitable issue for every country. In economics, energy consumption like others variables such as labor and capital, has an important role in production. This clearly justifies its importance in economy and economic activities. Therefore, every country tries to define a security level for energy. This is an important reason why countries apply many methods for calculating and estimating size of energy resources and prices, as well as the supply and demand models of energy. There are several institutions devising models for estimating and forecasting energy. The EIA and IEA, from the costumer side, and OPEC, from the supplier side, are the organizations that have developed world-scale energy models to estimate and forecast trends of energy markets in the different world regions. They also publish reports on a monthly, quarterly and annually basis. The IIES World Energy Model (IWEM) is one of these models that have been developed recently. The IWEM is a long run and econometric model and has four sub-models which estimate and forecast demand, supply and price equations for different energy carriers in different regions and sectors of world. This model is run by Eviews software and is compatible with Windows system. It employs up to 450 equations and relations (about 150 stochastic equations and 300 relations). Two specific features of IWEM make it different from other large scale models: It is user friendly and results are easily accessible. Each sub-model considers a region. Furthermore, every region is divided into different sectors (these sectors are: transportation, industry, commercial-residential and power sector) and equations have been devised for these sectors. This model also has equations for estimating gas demand, supply and price. The estimation of model for period of 1960-2001 and forecasts for 2002-2010 are indicative of an ascending trend for gas in all regions. For example, the table below shows the results of the IIES World Energy Outlook (IWEO) for average growth of natural gas in OECD different regions and sectors.

To become a mass-market product, compressed natural gas (CNG) vehicles need to enjoy an extensive network of filling stations. At the moment, CNG is mainly carried via pipeline. However, an alternative way is carrying CNG modules by trailers that are considered one of the easiest ways to supply temporary demand, especially in the rural areas. For this reason, the CNG modules filled in the main stations (mother stations) are transported to substations (daughter stations) by trucks and trailers. To this end, the first step is to determine the number of trailers and trucks used to supply the demand points. The capacity of daughter stations and the distance between mother stations and daughter stations are two important factors affecting the economics of the system. For the purpose of this study, a mathematical model of transporting CNG modules was presented and the mobile CNG transport system was analyzed. The cost of the mother stations and daughter stations was also determined using the CNG Station Cost Model (CNG-SCM). The ultimate goal was to gain an insight into the total cost of mobile CNG transport networks considering different capacities and the distance between mother stations and daughter stations.

In Iran's 4th development plan, the contribution of productivity to the projected economic growth is planned to be 31.3 percent. It is obvious that the first step towards developing a plan for promoted productivity in different economic sectors is to assess and analyze productivity in the sectors and analyze the factors contributing to the promotion. Although many studies have been carried out on the productivity of different sectors, only a few studies have been done about oil sector due to its specific characteristics. To this end, the present study has attempted to focus on crucial issues of measuring productivity in oil sector. Moreover, the production function was examined elaborately and eventually a recommended production function was provided. Then, the production function was examined taking natural resources into consideration and then it was generalized to oil sector. Such dominant factors affecting productivity as fiscal regime, compliance to the OPEC quota, managing spare production capacity, insufficient data and the country's current oil production trend considering the Hubert Curve which affecting the productivity have been discussed extensively. 

It is for a long time that energy security is the major concern for industrialized energy consumers. The idea of the security of energy supply coincided with the formation of the IEA and setting up of the response mechanism for oil emergency. Since oil and gas account for the biggest share of energy basket, energy security mainly alludes to oil and gas. However the concept of energy security has evolved ever since. It incorporates security of supply security of demand equally. Political and social stability of oil producers and the regional stability and economic development is very meaningful to the security of energy supply. Without socio-economical stability of oil producers, a missing point in the eyes of major industrial powers, a robust energy security will be far from materialization. This paper shows that a multi-dimensionally defined energy security where producers, consumers and the investors share their views, interests, risks and opportunity costs is able to contribute to the emergence of a more secure energy market.

The idea of an ‘Organization of Gas Exporting Countries’ (Gas OPEC) has been discussed many times in the past decades. It began to attract attention with the growing importance of the international trade in natural gas and particularly with the rise in the price of oil and the increased importance of OPEC (the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries) in the 1980s. The growing influence of OPEC in the international oil market has encouraged the idea of a similar organization for natural gas. Although the concept of Gas OPEC is a fruitful one and such an organization could indeed play an important and useful role in the future, many stages of consultation and planning are required among the gas producing nations to establish such an organization. In order to prepare for these consultations and to pursue any suggestions or outcomes from them, at each stage detailed studies and analyses have to be carried out. Open-mindedness and flexibility will be of utmost importance in all stages. Ultimately, the final decision will be a political undertaking by the leading authorities in gas exporting countries.

Natural gas has yet to be traded as an international commodity in the global energy markets so natural gas prices can vary from one region to another. Therefore, a debt arises over the future of the relationship between oil and natural gas prices. At the present time, Europe, Asia and the United States put their own specific pricing mechanisms into practice. In Europe, natural gas prices still correlate substantially with those of alternative energy carriers, particularly heating oil and fuel oil. In other words, natural gas markets and oil markets have become interrelated where through liberalization of natural gas markets such interrelation will face developments and experience the trends similar to what has happened in the US market before. Although LNG transaction contracts follow a similar example, considerable differences are noticeable in LNG prices in such local markets as Asia, Europe and the United States. In the European and US markets, prices of natural gas carried via pipelines are considered as a basis for LNG pricing since there is a competition between LNG and pipeline in these markets. In Asian markets, Korea and Taiwan follow the example of Japan closely in concluding LNG contracts. Therefore, average imported LNG prices in Japan are regarded a benchmark for LNG prices in Asian markets. It should be noted that LNG price discrepancies have roots in different formulae and pricing mechanisms used in different regions.