Journal of Economic Research
Year:2004 | Volume:- | Issue:65|Papers Count:8

An empirical analysis of demand for international reserves for twenty Resource- Based Countries is investigated, which is based on a error correction model, and panel data is used for estimation. Besides addressing conventional issues, the model explicity incorporates the impact of expected exporting revenues and the impact of the exchange rate system on reserve demand. The result reveals that, shortrun money market disequilibrium have not any significant effect on demand for international reserve in resource based countries. In addition, expected exporting revenues have positive longrun effect, while exchange rate flexibility has negative effect on demand for reserve in these countries.

The multiple objective of this paper was: 1) to identify the effective detenninants of labor factor productivity and 2) to measure the extent of the effect of labor productivity on production costs and export of manufacturing products in Iran. For this purpose, based on (ISIC-2 digit) time-series manufacturing data for (1994-99) period, a system of simultaneous equations system was utilized, using an I2SLS regressiontechnique. The results indicatedthe educationand dexteritylevel of industrial labor force in Iran has had an appreciableand meaningfuleffect on labor productivityduring the study period.Moreover,increasedlabor productivitythat was experiencedby the industry, has resulted in a reductionin the unit labor cost, which in turn, has led to reductionin average cost of production, making Iranian manufacturing exports more competitive. The results do not show any significant and meaningful effect of manufacturing exports on industrial labor productivity, and thus, gives no support to the "learning-by-exporting" hypothesis.The papercalls for an effectivegovernmentpolicyto strengthenthe integrationand consistencyof the industryslabor forceeducationand specializationrequirementswith the educationalprogramswithin the higher education system in order to enhance the international competitivenessof the manufacturingsectorin Iran.

In this paper, we investigate about the concept of justice in Imam Khomeinis Opinion, who was the founder of an Islamic revolution in Iran. We have illustrated that in his ideas and policies equality and providing the basic needs for all of the people form the core of his thoughts in relation of justice. We identifYa general framework of performing pattern of justice in lmam Khomeinis Opinion by extracting 14 principlesamong his statements about justice. A noticeable point in this study is a relative coordination and harmony between Imam Khomeinis Opinion and the idea of "Basic Meeds" in development econom.

Inflation decreases the actual tax revenues, if tax collection lag prolongs and tax system is inflexible (Tanzi hypothesis). In order to test Tanzi effect in Iran in short and long run seasonal data in 1360- 1380(1981-2001) has been used and OLS and MLE have been applied. Resultes "indicatesthat the lag length is almost 23 months and elasticity is more than unit (OLS). In MLE method, lag is 16 months and elasticities less than unit and with war dummy variable, the lag islO month. In short-run, lag is estimated to be 18 months and, instead of increasing, inflation decreases nominal tax revenues.Thus Tanzi effect in shortrun is strongerthan longrun in Iraneconomy.

It is assumed the exchange rate would affect resources balance through a switching- expenditure mechanism. Accordingly, the behavior of real exhange rate can be examined empirically. Of all structuralmodels, the most applicableprocedurerelies on the partial trade model, which is specifiedbased upon the basic equilibriumof Williamsonexchangerate. Consideringa specificconcept of desired current account, this sort of model identifies a ftame of the real exchange rate (Borowski and Couharde 2000). In a new classical ftamework,savingcan be equivalentto differencebetweenproduction and consumption plus payments of external debt interests. Consumptionis also invarianton the basic of the life cycle theory.An optimal (desired) current accuntcan thus be as a result of difference betweeninvestmentand savingplus interestsof externaldebt. Hence, developmentin real exchangerate can providethe desired conditions of the current account blance,which is called as a basic equilibrium (Williamson1994). Due to assumptios of a trade model, the relative gap between potentialand actual productionis one of the maindeterminantsof realexchangerate, whichis computed,in the presentstudy,bythe filtering Hodrick-Prescott method for Iran. Determining optimal current account, the paper concludes that the relevant values obtained are negative for pre-revolutionary perod, whereas positive for postrevolotionaryperiod. The results are quite well-matchedwith Irans presenteconomiccondition. Overall,empirical~esultsof equilibriumtrademodelfor Iran reveal the fact that deviation from long-run equilibrium path of the real exchange rate has gradually diminished, even though it has been accompanied by correspondent fluctuations in Irans economic situation.

Estimation Methods of inflation effects on the income (expenditure) distribution can be divided into three groups: parametric, semi-parametricand non-parametric. In this paper the inflation effects on the expenditure distribution inequality in Iran during 1971-2001is estimatednon-parametrically.In order to do so, the ConsumerPrice Index is divided into 5 food groups of bread & rice, meats,dairy products,fruit&vegetablesandother food products, and 7 non-food groups of clothing & shoes, hosing & energy, furniture, transportations & communications, heath and cares, educations& hobbiesand othernon-foodproducts.Then, expenditure distribution in terms of current prices, corresponding to the combinationof quantity consumptionbasket and accordingto CPI in the baseyear is transformedintothe constantexpendituredistribution. After that, comparingthe sharesof the twentiesandthe corresponding inequality indices (Gini coefficients) of the current (pre inflation removal) and fix (post inflation removal) expenditure distributions, the extent and direction of the inequalitychanges is estimated. The results indicatedthat the relativeprice changesin the urbanareas have had an egalitarianeffect until 1980,but the trend has changed since. The relativeprice changesin the rural areas have had cyclicaleffects on the fixed inequalitysince 1982.

The government of Iran arranged the budget structure in a new method on the basis of InternationalMonetary Fund prescription since the year of 1381.1nthis method the two balances ,that is, current operationalbalanceand net transferringof assetsbalancehave changedthe form of fmancingthe budget.In this paper time series annual data for the period 1358-1380are used for studyingthe effect of changingthe financingstructureof budgeton economicgrowthby the use of Auto RegressiveDistributedLag (ARDL),exogeneitytest and super exogeneitytest. The results show that size of the current budget has negative effect on economic growth and surplus of net transferring asset balance rationed the capital expenditures and decreasedthe positiveeffectof the expendituresize on the growth.

The purpose of the present paper is quantitativedeterminationof optimal monetary and fiscal policies under floating exchange rate regime for the countrythird developmentplan (1383-1379).For this purpose, first, a welfare loss functionis designedin which penalized on the quadratic deviation of objectivevariables such as: economic growth, inflationrate, unemployment,currentaccountand the ratio of government budget deficit to GDP from their optimal control algorithm"OPTCON"the optimalvaluesof governmentsinvestment and consumption expendituresand tax revenues and money stock (liquidity) are calculated by minimizing the welfare loss function subject to a dynamic nonlinear system. The comparison between optimalmonetaryand fiscalpolicieswiththe-third plans proposed macroeconomic policies shows the optimal values of liquidity, governmentconsumptionand investmentare lower and the optimal values of tax revenues are greater than the proposedvalues in third plan. Also, under optimal monetary and fiscal polices, the rate of economic growth, the ratio of budget deficit to GDP and current account will be better compared with the third plans proposed macroeconomicpolicies.The results of the present paper could help policy makers in designingfiscal and monetarypoliciesof the fourth developmentplanandthe optimalvaluesof instrumentvariables