Journal of Economic Research
Year:2012 | Volume:47 | Issue:3|Papers Count:10

Depending on the assumptions that are made in new Keynesian models, one can attain different new Keynesian Phillips curves. In this study, three different new Keynesian Phillips curves and two different central bank behavioural functions are presented which leaves six new Keynesian DSGE models to study. The purpose of this study is the comparison of these six models and selecting the best model that fits to Iranian economy. The results show that the Phillips curve with both lagged inflation and expected inflation can be the best model in explaining the economy of Iran. Considering the formation of inflation in each period, it seems that the weight of lagged inflation is greater than the weight of expected inflation. The selected model forecasts a continuous recession during 1387, but the economy will be in expansion in 1388.

The paper examines for the first time the foreign exchange intervention policy in foreign exchange market of Iran. And in this framework, the study designs and simulates the foreign exchange intervention model in Iran. In the first section, the paper shows that the injection of oil revenues directly to economy and also the absence of potent structure of output are inclusively caused the central bank intervention in the form of foreign exchange buying in the market. This directs to high inflation and low output. So, the survey is designed the foreign exchange intervention model in Iran in the form of nonlinear dynamic continuous-time stochastic model. But because there is no exact numerical solution for the model, the paper presents the Monte Carlo simulated model program base on R package.

Urbanization agglomeration that is named Jacobs externalities, refers to the role of economic diversification in urban. Localization agglomeration, Marshal-Arrow-Romer (MAR) externalities, is related to the concentration of firms activated in a special industry within a specified place. The purpose of this research is to explore the impact of different types of agglomeration economies on employment growth for provinces of Iran in 1996-2006. Empirical results demonstrate a U-shaped relationship between specialization and urban growth We find a positive impact of Jacobs's externalities on employment growth in provinces of Iran.

This paper studies housing choice under fuzzy circumstances. In this article, fuzzy distance method is employed for selection process. Methodology of housing choice with fuzzy distance approach is based on the minimizing fuzzy distance of features from desired amount under fuzzy condition. Meanwhile, in the discrete choice models, housing choice is based on utility maximizing of available option. If available and desirable options have fuzzy values, we can measure distances between them and choose minimum distance as the best option. This study is conducted for dwelling units in urban regions of Hamedan province in Iran. Estimated results of model show that among owners group considering some features the fourth decile has the lowest fuzzy distance. This means that the residential units located in this decile are ideal for choosing. In the case of tenants, the third decile with amount of 659 units, has the minimum fuzzy distance.

Dual job holding is widespread in Iran's labor market, 18% of work force are holding second job in 1993, which increased to 19% in 2003. Using a rich three years panel data-set of socioeconomic characteristics of Iranian households, the article aims to examine the determinants of dual job holding across the individuals who have participated in the labor market. Since the issue of dual job holding is the result of a two selection processes by the individuals, we apply a dual sample selection technique in the econometric analysis, which is based on the Tunali (1985). Our findings explore that age, gender, marital status, education are the main determinants of work hours in the first job, and wage rate in the first job, gender and age are the main driving forces of the second job holding probability.

In this paper, the effect of financial liberalization on household's budget liquidity constraint is analyzed with the use of an error correction model. Financial liberalization will decline liquidity constraint, with expanding means of making future incomes available for present consumption. Here a financial liberalization index for Iran is defined using Principal component Analysis technique, based on 6 variables. After dividing the time period into 2 sub periods, the income ratio of people confronting liquidity constraint is estimated for each sub group. The results show that financial liberalization has not declined liquidity constraint in Iran.

Exchange rate prediction, as one of the main variables in macroeconomics, has been one of the aims of the economic research for a long time. For modeling and predicting exchange rate we apply stochastic differential equation, specifically we use Geometric Brownian Motion (GBM) and Jump-Diffusion process (MJDP) attributed to Merton. We show that the result of simulation based on GBM and MJDP outperforms linear time series models, such as ARIMA, for both in sample and out of sample predictions based on RMSE criterion.

This paper focuses on the residential sector demand for electricity, natural gas and petroleum products (Kerosene, gas oil and LPG) in Iran in the context of a popular locally flexible functional forms – "the almost ideal demand system (AIDS)". We pay explicit attention to the theoretical regularity conditions of positivity, monotonicity, and curvature. We treat the curvature property as a maintained hypothesis and provide a comparison in terms of models' ability in estimation and in terms of violations of the theoretical regularity conditions. Finally, We provide a policy perspective, using annually data set from 1971 to 2005 (a total of 35 observations) and parameter estimates and a full set of elasticities (price, income and Allen & Morishima elasticities) that are consistent with full regularity.

The conventional theory of adverse selection is not supported by most of the empirical works. These studies conclude that low-risk individuals demand more insurance services than high-risks. They refer to this situation as advantageous selection theory. This theory states that loss ratio of insureds may be lower than the population loss ratio while the conventional theory of adverse selection claims the reverse. under the assumptions of theory of advantageous selection, insurers end up with relatively low-risk individuals and the selection effect will be propitious to insurers as more risk-averse low-risk individuals are not only willing to pay more for precautionary efforts but also are more inclined to insure.This paper examines the presence of advantageous selection in the Iranian Car collision insurance market and concludes that there exists considerable advantageous selection behavior in this market.

A medium scale structural macro econometric model is constructed to investigate the effects of energy price liberalization on the main macroeconomic variables. The analysis is conducted under 3 different scenarios of increasing the price of energy sources to the level prevailed in the countries of the Persian Gulf region. These 3 scenarios are a sudden increase, a gradual increase within a 5 years time span and a gradual increase in energy prices together with some compensation of household and the industry.The simulation results show that under the first scenario, inflation rate goes up to 94%, GDP growth rate reduces to 1.2% and unemployment rate rises to 11.5%. Under the second scenario, in the first year of rising energy prices, inflation rate increase to 27.7% and GDP growth rates falls to 2%. If the third scenario is chosen, the inflation rate will increase to 95.2% in the first year, while GDP growth rate and unemployment rate will be 1.2% and 11.5% respectively.