JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL ECONOMICS RESEARCH
Year:2013 | Volume:5 | Issue:2 (18)|Papers Count:14

Reliable predictions on import prices of agricultural products can result in appropriate timing of import and saving of exchange resources. Linear time series models including ARIMA, GARCH and EGARCH have frequently been used in time series forecasting during the past three decades. Recent studies on forecasting with artificial neural network (ANNs) suggest that ANNs can be a suitable alternative to the traditional linear models. But neither linear time series models nor ANNs can be adequate in modeling and forecasting time series since the linear model cannot deal with nonlinear relationships while neural network model alone is not able to handle both linear and nonlinear patterns equally well. Hence by integrating linear time series with ANN models and designing the hybrid model, patterns in the data can be explained more accurately. In this research, a hybrid. methodology that combines time series model ARIMA, GARCH and EGARCH and ANN models is designed and results are compared with those of competitive models. In order to compare forecasting accuracy, in addition to the usual criteria such as RMSE, MAD, MAPE and Theil Coefficient with introducing Granger and Newbold statistic, significance of forecasting accuracy difference have been investigated. Main finding for price of three import products including Wheat, Corn and Sugar indicate that hybrid model significantly improves forecasting accuracy. In order to save more exchange, application of hybrid models for agricultural price prediction, especially for strategic import products, is recommended.

In this study multi criteria decision making and analytical hierarchy process (AHP) were used to identify the preferred utilization system in the rangelands of Ardebil Province according to economic, social and ecological criteria. In this respect ten rangeland experts expressed their preference and priorities. Results showed that private utilization system with weight equal to 0.534 was first and traditional utilization system with weight of 0.234 was second and state system with 0.230 was third in priority ranking. On this -basis extending private utilization system was recommended.

n r n ent nd res s rt nt ssue for all men. We must try to keep that from destruction. Taxes used for reduce environmental pollution. This article tries to create tax simulation model for reduce chemical pesticides pollution in agricultural area. Therefore used as maximize utility for farmers, chemical producer, and consumer. Continued make use of econometric to test tax model, where are used of ARDL, GLS & SUR methodology, Unit- Root test, Zivot- Andrews test and etc. result reported at the end of article, this result showing variables behavior truly. The research using Monte Carlo simulations for reducing pollution uncertainty in the model and simulation of VaR, to calculate the maximum reduction of pollution for factors have been implicated. Also, the pollution function optimization to calculate the optimal percent reduction in pollution of various factors; and the optimal distribution of population reported logarithmic normal distribution.

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Protection of vital water resources along with economic considerations has made a major revision in decision making of agricultural systems. Under such circumstances, it is necessary to use efficient planning approaches which allow decision makers to access multiple objectives. Accordingly The present study applied multi-objective programming, cluster analysis, and compromise programming to develop an optimal cropping pattern providing gross margin maximization and water use minimization in Seidan-Farough Plain, Marvdasht Township. The required data is related to crop year 2010-2011 and collected from 106 questionnaires using two stage cluster sampling. Considering different combinations of weights for the objective functions, the optimal cropping patterns were presented under three scenarios. All patterns proposed by the model made it possible to increase gross margin and reduce water consumption. Moreover, when the objective weight of minimizing water use across patterns increased, crop combination changed in favor of the crops with lower water requirement. Comparison of current and optimal cropping patterns showed that farmers in both small and large farms had relatively similar performance in achieving the objective of gross margin maximization, while the objective of water use minimization was more successfully provided in large farms than that of small farms which in turn represents more efficient management of water use in large-scale farms. In addition, the tradeoffs between objectives, especially in small farms, indicated that decreasing a certain amount of gross margin would result in a more substantial reduction in water consumption providing farmers with a variety of acceptable options in order to reduce water use.

Today, agriculture is an economic activity which has an important role in te P, r d n t e d se ur t e untr seen t e other hand environmental side effects, agricultural activities can have along with. Many of economic analyzes without having ecological concerns emphasize the increasing economic welfare of farmers. In this study, using goal programming model considering economic and environmental goals the. Beiza Plain of Fars Province optimal cultivation pattern was set. Statistical data from a sample of 100 producers in the region, which randomly selected at 2011-2012 crop year and Additional information from Agricultural Organization Sepidan was collected. The results showed that in the goal programming model, tomatoes and bean omitted from the model, onion and com entered in the model. Rice accounted most acreage area with 11940.1 hectare. In addition, the consumption of water, fertilizers and pesticides compared to current conditions declined. According to the findings, with considering the environmental goals, increasing profits and productivity of resources under current conditions is possible.

This paper studies the factors may cause purchasing or not purchasing the qualified vegetables, as consumers' conception of products' quality is an important element in each marketing strategy. The purpose of this study is to determine the effective factors and the way they affect the consumers' purchase decision and willingness to pay more than market price. In this study using the contingent valuation, individual's preferences and tastes in monetary domain were extracted according to the change in the product's quality and in February 2012, the effective factors on consumers' willingness to pay were studied through 446 questionnaires and by interviewing inside and outside the Tehran municipality markets. The amount of willingness to pay for safe vegetables was measured by two-step Heckman model. The results showed that in relative to the market prices, the average amount of individual's willingness to pay for the ones who have accepted it, is 222 Tomans per kilogram.

Considering the growing concerns about environmental problems and the burden placed by different activities on environmental quality, accommodation of models of productivity and efficiency with joint production of good and bad outputs have importance. So in this study, we are computed efficiency and factor affecting of 60 beef cattle industrial farms with emphasis on environmental aspects. Results indicated that efficiency of farms with environmental factors was significantly less than without bad outputs. This shows that environmental conditions were influenced on efficiency. Age, Education, experience and contribution of feed and health classes had significant impact on efficiency of fanners.

Exchange rate pass-through is a subject that has always been discussed and analyzed due to its impacts on the trade balance and export prices. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate empirically the relationship between exchange rate and Iran's pistachio export prices. Using a panel of data from twenty-three destination markets over the period 1992 2010, fixed effects regression model is used to test this relationship. The results of model estimation with a common exchange rate coefficient for all destination markets indicate that Iranian exporters absorb a portion of the change in the exchange rate and so pass-through to export prices is incomplete. Another important result from this paper is that there are no competitive conditions in none of destination markets. According to the pattern of demand in destination markets and high degree of exchange rate pass-through for pistachio, it is concluded that Iranian exporters should focus on non-price competition for increasing market share.

Research on asymmetric price transmission is the topics that have been discussed in term of agricultural economy seriously. Analysis of price spatial relationships are generally looking to show convergence between local markets and reviewing the performance of these markets. Price spatial transmission is interpreted to assess the degree of convergence of markets and reduce functional impairment of markets and effort to reduce transaction costs. Because of the importance of saffron as one of the major items of non oil exports, aggregation of producers of this crop in Khorasan province, and distribution of consumer of this product in other provinces of Iran, the main objective of this study is to investigate the spatial transmission of saffron price in provinces of country. In the present study, by using the monthly retail price of saffron in the years 1385-1390 and by using threshold error correction model, price spatial transmission patterns between Khorasan province and other provinces in the country are estimated. studied-provinces, there is positive price asymmetry. price transmission coefficients show that in the short term, price reducing at the retail level are transmitted faster to other markets than price increasing, and in long term, any deviation from the long-term equilibrium relation is moderated and markets are converge. Efforts to create favorable conditions for buying the product from the manufacturer, and highlighting the role of stock markets and futures markets of saffron and the creation of producers' organizations or cooperatives of saffron production in the EU to increase their bargaining power and finally lowering the role of brokers in the market seems to be necessary.