Journal of Economic Modelling
Year:2009 | Volume:3 | Issue:1 (7)|Papers Count:8

In this article, the effects of economic integration on the balance of payments in the selected developing countries have been examined through generalized Gravity Model by applying consolidated data during 1971-2006. Results indicate that trade balance is positively oriented in the long term period, leading to the improvement of BOP in the long-run, after applying economic integration plan. Furthermore, more trade liberalization in the member countries of the integration plan would lead to the increase of mutual trade (both export and import) among the member countries; therefore, both trade liberalization policy and economic integration plan would contribute to the economic development strategy, based on the export development.

In this article, the structure of Iran telecommunication market, its performance and the cost structures of telecommunication companies have been investigated by estimating appropriate cost function and applying panel data during 2004-2008.  Results show telecommunication market has additivity function and introducing new, competitive enterprises in this market would lead to the efficiency decrease, so current monopoly seems to be more efficient.

In this article, two models of Reward Beta and Fama & French Three-Factor Model have been compared to estimate the expected returns in Tehran Stock Exchange. Results show Fama & French Three-Factors Model is more effective than RBM; meantime, there is a direct relation between the size of the company and the expected returns, whereas the ratio of book value to market value has reverse relation with the expected returns.

Shortage of energy sources - especially fossil fuels, which is our main sources of energy, made many researchers consider the issue of improving energy efficiency and decreasing energy intensity in different industries in recent years. In this paper, energy use in Tehran Cement Industry Group has been decomposed into three levels of structural, output and net energy intensity changes, during 1996-2006 by using special fourfold method for analyzing the intensity of energy use. Results show AVE_PDM1 model is the best model for having minimum residues and showed that structural changes has the least effect on the changes in energy uses, while output and net energy intensity changes affect the changes in energy uses most. We can conclude that although effective measures have been taken in decreasing energy intensity and as a result increasing efficiency in Tehran Cement Industry Group, they have failed in different periods due to the inflexibility of production function.

In economic literature, it is expected that globalization increase the role of external factors in the inflation process, while decreasing the effects of internal factors on inflation. In this article, Reaction Functions and Variance Analysis have been analyzed by using VAR model.    Results show domestic inflation is affected by some variables, including Expected Inflation, Import Inflation and Internal and External Production Gap.

In developing countries, the amount of foreign debts is high, while their military costs have been increased in recent decades. In this article, the effects of military costs and national income on foreign debts have been investigated in 77 developing countries during 1993-2007, using GMM. Results show military cost has positive effect (0.33) and national income has negative effect (-0.38) on foreign debts.

The relationship between financial markets and economic growth depends on factors such as financial deepening; fiscal and monetary policies. The aim of this study is analyzing the long-term relationship and convergence between financial development and the growth of industrial sector during 1974-2008. Using ARDL and ECM methods, the results indicate that there is a long-run relationship between financial development and the growth of industrial sector. Our finding demonstrates the necessity of applying suitable policies to allocate credits and create competitive opportunities in financial markets in order to improve the process of allocating financial resources to the industrial sector.  

In this article, the performance of sugar industries in different towns of both East and West Azerbaijan have been modeled in different periods by applying Logit & Probit Model, and through identifying effective factors on the establishment of sugar industries in the said areas. Results indicate that the variables of distance (as a transport cost index) and the lands, brought under cultivation of sugar beet are the most effective parameters on establishing the said industries and some cities, including Naghadeh, Miandouab, Orumieh, Khoy and Mahabad are in priorities for establishing sugar manufacturing plants.