Journal of Economic Modelling
Year:2009 | Volume:3 | Issue:2 (8)|Papers Count:12

Instability of Phillips Curve can be considered as the most important application of Lucas Critique. Based on this critique, changes in the policymakers' behaviors cause changes in the macroeconomic parameters through affecting the expectations of the economic factors; therefore, while some economists believe in the existence of short-term correlation between inflation and unemployment due to the inflexibility both in the wages and prices, instability of Phillips Curve is considered as a major impediment to policy making, because of the existence of structural breakdown, resulting from endogenous shocks or changes in the policymaking regimes. The aim of the article is to investigate the structural stability of the inflation persistence and Phillips Curve parameters in the form of Bai and Perron Model during 1961-2008. The result show that in addition to the high fluctuations of the inflation rate in Iran, its persistence is also high. Meantime, Phillips Curve parameters have been changing in different periods and long-term Phillips Curve is not linear during the said period of time.

In this article, the effects of economic freedom on inflation in the Middle East and North of Africa (MENA) region have been evaluated during 1996-2006 by applying panel data regression analysis on the basis of Gordon Triangular Inflation Model. The results show that economic freedom leaves no significant effects on inflation in the menthioned region during the specified period.

In this article, the income and price sensitivity of the urban households have been evaluated during 2006-2007 based on AIDS and Rotterdam Differential Model. The results of Marshall, Hicks and Allen elasticity indicate that all the commodity groups are complied by the demand rule. Marshall price elasticity show that the most price sensitivity lays first in the transportation and then in the furniture groups. Findings of Hicks elasticity show that food with furniture group is considered as complement of Hicks-Allen, while food with other commodity group seems to be replacement of Hicks-Allen. Meantime, findings of Allen replacement elasticity reveal that the most Allen replacement is in the housing and transportation groups.

In this article, the asymmetric co-integration of trade balance, export and import and exchange rate is investigated by applying Endres-Siklos Method, so TAR and M-TAR models are used. The results of estimating the said models show that there is an asymmetric co-integration between trade balance (non-oil), export (non-oil), import and exchange rate. Meantime, Threshold Error Correction Model has been estimated to investigate short run dynamics of the said variables with regard to the exchange rate. The findings indicate that the main hypothesis of the model, i.e. asymmetric co-integration between real exchange rate and trade balance, is approved. Furthermore, based on the results, the adjustment speed of the trade balance is higher when standing above its equilibrium point.

In this article, Hedonic Method has been applied to estimate a model for market value of the farmlands in Sabzevar during the farming periods of 2008-2009. Based on this Method, a price of the commodity is used for valuation of its properties, having been negotiated informally in the market. The required data have been gathered by distributing 350 questionnaires throughout the irrigated lands. The results indicate that the irrigation volume of the groundwater, the distance of the traded land from Sabzevar and the soil structure mostly affect the price of the surrounded lands.

In this article the effects of the changes in the gas price on its consumption in Iran have been investigated during 1971-2008 by applying VAR method. The variables include real gas price, gas consumption, GDP (non-oil) and the number of automobiles. The results of the reaction functions show that gas consumption is slightly decreased at the first steps of price changes, but will be increased within a short period of time. Furthermore, the number of automobiles and GDP (nonoil) are variables, having significant, positive effects on gas consumption in Iran.

In tandem with the development of information and communication technology (ICT), world's integration is increasing. The hypotheses in this article suggest that applying ICT in the countries of the trading parties results in the decrease of the trading costs. The goal of this article is to assess the effects of technology on the economic integration in the developing countries including Iran, applying gravity model during 1971- 2006. The results indicate that development of ICT in the developing countries bears positive effects on the economic integration, but in some countries it is not still significant.

Maku Sardar Palace is located in Maku Town, East Azerbaijan province and is considered as one of the important historical monuments in Iran for both its tourist attractions and its location on the transit road to Turkey and Europe. The aim of this article is to estimate the recreational value of Sardar Palace by applying contingent valuation method. To achieve the goal, a questionnaire has been designed and distributed randomly among 180 visitors in 2008. The results indicate that about 68 Percent of the people accept to pay the offered price and based on the estimated model, the average price that the visitors are willing to pay for each visit is IRR 8,437. Findings of this article can be a suitable guide for the policymakers and planners of the country's cultural heritage in determining appropriate prices of the tickets and financing the costs of providing services and renovation of the said monument.