Journal of Economic Modelling
Year:2010 | Volume:4 | Issue:1 (11)|Papers Count:10

In this paper, the monetary policy transmission process within the channels of the credit, exchang rate, assets prices and interest rate is studied for the Iranian economy using Vector Autoregressive Approach during 1988Q1 to 2007Q4. The results represent that the effect of changes in money supply (monetary base) is not statistically significant on output. but; the inflation impact is instantaneous and noticeable. The variance decomposition results are, also, consistent with this finding. In particular, a monetary innovation explains 5.7 and 72 percent of output and inflation innovations, respectively. Likewise, the channels play no role in transmitting the effect of monetary policy to output. But, in respect to inflation, they have a significant effect. Specifically, the contribution of asset, interest rate, exchange rate and credit channels in nine quarter horizons amount to 35.7, 30.6, 19, and 3.2 percent, respectively. They, all together, explain 88.5 percent of the general price level of changes.

The purpose of this paper is evaluating the effect of environmental and voluntary variables on level of happiness in developed and developing countries. In this paper, the effect of environmental and voluntary variables on happiness was estimated using extreme-bound analysis (EBA) and group panel data technique in 1990-99 and 2000-2008 periods. The level of happiness in developed countries (in average 7.1) is more than developing countries (in average 5.9). Environmental factors (high income per capita and low inflation and unemployment) and health care (such as high life expectancy as resultant of environmental and voluntary factors) are key factors which can explain the difference of happiness in developed and developing countries.

By using contingent valuation, this research examines people willing to pay in Polesefid of mazandaran province also, based on the estimation of Logit model we are going to determine factors such as income, ago, number of small children and level of education affecting the willing to pay. The data are collected through a survey questionnaire and personal interviewing with 180 households in Polesefid. Also, according a pretest, the embedding effect is examined. Results indicate that 83 percent of households have a willing to pay for improving the quality of city water. In particular, average willing to pay for the save water is about 32000 Rials per household. Also by this research of the variables such as worrying about the quality of drinking water. Income and age have a positive and significant effect on the willing to pay. since, average values for willingness to pay in the pretest study is 32000 it seems that the embedding effect is minimum and the willing to pay has the minimum biased.

This paper is an effort to find an adaptable model to investigate about the presence or absence of significant relation between inflation and the size of government in Iran. To study the long-run relationship between inflation and the factors affecting it by emphasizing the size of government during 1974-2006, an auto regressive distributed lag model (ARDL) will be used. The findings indicate that the import price index, liquidity and real interest rate are effective factors on inflation in Iran and there is a negative but significant relationship between inflation and the size of government in Iranian economy. Based upon the results, the government protective and supervisional roles is necessary to control the inflation.

This study measures the total factor productivity in the agriculture of Iran and analyzes the relationship between TFP, domestic agricultural research, human capital and foreign agricultural R&D during 1979–2008. The Divisia index approach is applied for the measurement of total factor productivity in Iran agriculture. Almon distributed lag model involving different lag length specifications will be estimated taking TFP as a dependent variable. The results indicate that agricultural researches (both domestic and foreign R&D) have positive and significant impact on TFP in agricultural sector.

The aim of this paper is to evaluate the macroeconomic variables on Tehran stock exchange by using cointegration method and seasonal data during 1998–2008. The estimation with 5 indicators for stock output (cash return, stock price index, and cash return and stock price index, industrial price index and financial price index) represent that Gross Domestic Product, money stock and liquidity are the main effective variables on the return of stock market. Coin is a week substitution for the stock exchange but, exchange rate and housing, based on selected indicator for stock exchange, affect the return of stock exchange. Although, the impact of real interest rate is negative, but it is not stable. Also, the findings show that periodical election influences the return of stock exchange.

In this paper we test the relationship between industrial export and industrial sector growth over the period 1338 to 1386 by using VECM. We carried out Johansen test for finding cointegration relations. This test shows two cointegration Equations the first relation represents the effect of industrial export on industrial sector growth and second indicates the effect of industrial export on employment of industrial sector. Results of coefficient estimations show that the growth of industrial sector in addition affected by factors such as capital and labor, also importantly affected by industrial exports which act through increasing productivity in sectors producing for export and through externalities of export for non-export sectors.

This paper examines the effects of trade and financial openness on economic performances of D8 countries in both real and financial sectors by using Panel Data model. Results indicate that there is a positive effect of trade openness on financial sectors, while negative effect on economic growth. On the other hand, there is no significant effect of financial openness on real and financial sectors. Since the positive effect of trade openness on financial sectors is much higher than the negative effect on real sector, trade openness policy would be recommended in those countries.