Journal of Management Future Research
Year:2016 | Volume:26 | Issue:105|Papers Count:7

Nowdays, using a process framework for extracting uncertainties and driving forces specially in dynamic and turbulent environment is essental to perform a broad extent of futures studies like strategy design and assessment, scenario planning. In this environment, managers and decision makers require methods for identifying factors that shape the future in the shortest possible time based on the results of previous studies. Traditional methods couldnot meet this requirement. In this paper, a process framework has been designed for extracting uncertainties and driving forces in a reasonable time based on the previous studies. In order to show the practically and usefulness of the proposed framework an empirical study of the oil and energy industry is demonstrated. The results show the effectiveness of the proposed model for extracting uncertainties and driving forces.

This paper presents a structural model for the commercialization of knowledge took place in private universities. The study of the purpose and the method of collecting data was cross-correlation. This study done has been mixed. The quality and the use of expert opinion through semi-structured interviews and the results of the analysis of interviews and a questionnaire was developed to account for commercialization index was 109. Exploratory factor analysis of variance factors and matrix rotated, 5 of intersectoral collaboration, knowledge creation, intellectual capital, strategic orientation, knowledge of factors affecting business were identified. Factors and factors identified in the Structural Equation Modeling and partial least squares (PLS) was analyzed And after determining the impact of each factor on the business aspects and components of knowledge was evaluated. Results showed that external factors, intellectual capital, knowledge creation, intersectoral collaboration, strategic orientation and the ability to have a positive and significant relationship Tjary Sazy knowledge with the commercialization of knowledge.

In 1394, Research and Planning Management of Islamic Advertising and Communication Department of Astan Quds Razavi in order to their inherent missions had defined a research project about the future of its own cultural services. In this regard, futures studies expert team was formed and they selected scenario development method (GBN) as a favorable futuristic planning. So library and field studies concluded by huge volumes of baseline studies, review of dozens of articles and administrative documents in addition to interviews. After recognizing key elements and driving forces, experts accredited these factors by their interactions in four specialized PEST panels, and potential defects were resolved. Then researchers identified two elements of "economic situation" and "cultural integrated management" as critical uncertainties and constructive scenario development axes based on the findings and Cross Impact Analysis. We have been considered level of integrated management (organizational and more broadly) and caused to describe total six inductive scenarios including preferable, probable and possible ones. Meanwhile guidance indicators and advices were described in order to make fields to shape better decisions and policies besed on Astan Quds Razavi vision.

Recent bankruptcy of big companies all over the world and fluctuations in Iran's stock market require that some methods be developed for the evaluation of companies' financial potential. Different models are used for the prediction of bankruptcy and the evaluation of organizational financial situation. Environmental changes and increasing competition among agencies led to companies' and organizations' limited access to expected profit. Thus, financial decision making is, nowadays, more and more important, forcing managers to apply modern control methods through sophisticated techniques. The present study aims to evaluate the performance of companies' situation. For this purpose, we use the two models of data envelopment analysis and Zemijsky and compare results derived from them. The research data were gathered from 10 accepted in stock market. Results from data envelopment analysis model indicated that only one company was in a proper financial situation while results from Zemijsky's model showed that there were two companies in good financial condition. We also managed to develop strategies for the improvement of financial situation in other companies using data envelopment analysis model.

Detection of Structural break in trend analysis methods is one of the important issues in futures studies field. Fundamental changes in environment of system lead to structural breaks and discontinuousness of trends. Therefore, parameters of quantitative models are not reliable to apply in trend extrapolation. In this paper we discuss the structural breaks in trend analysis and compare the methods of detection and estimate location of structural breaks. First, Classic frequentist approach and Bayesian approach are considered as two main categorizes and their capacities and limitations are compared to each other. Second, Bai and Perron’s methods for detecting multiple structural breaks are used to investigate structural breaks in trend of electrical industry index in Tehran stock exchange. Test results demonstrates that two breaks occurred simultaneously with changes of economic policies of government in trend of electrical industry index in Tehran stock exchange. Initial break happened after implementing of subsidy reform plan and later break occurred when cabinet of government changed. Those structural breaks caused to ascending of electrical industry index and changing parameters. This paper introduces methodology of identifying structural breaks which is applicable in every economic trend analysis.

Identifying the future is one of the main concerns of disaster managers to properly prepare for future circumstances and prevention of events that caused surprises. In this regards, foresight methodologies is provided a systematic set of concepts and patterns to ensures the accuracy of outcomes of futures studies. Despite various efforts in developing foresight patterns in disaster management, the patterns have diversity in forms and contents. The main objective of this paper is to identify how these patterns classified globally in the past decade. In this regard, the famous patterns of disaster management foresight gathered and they are compared with each other.The methodology used in this paper in terms of data collection and literature review is qualitative. This research has an applied research orientation and seeks to provide a specific classification to clarify the application of foresight patterns in disaster management. In this article nine foresight pattern in disaster management were identified and studied comparatively.The results of this study in shown in comparative tables. These results signify that there will be a great evolution in foresight patterns in disaster management by a delays according to the Technology Foresight previous path, it is going the same path now. In this regard, using futures studies tools discretely, using variety of approaches and applying strategic foresight in disaster management just denote that there are no axis methods in this field identified yet.