Geography and Environmental Sustainability
Year:2018 | Volume:8 | Issue:26 |Papers Count:7

Quality of Surface water is one of the important criteria to determine the health of watershed. So its changes determine the state of health and sustainability of environment and human societies. Since in the last decade, due to the use of water resources and its pollution, this vital source has changed, the information of its status in the coming years can play an important role in environmental planning and sustainability of human geography. Taleghan watershed in Alborz province is one of the areas that are affected by these changes. In this research, using the Galinak hydrometric station data and the values of 10 parameters of water quality K, Na, mg, Ca, So4, Cl, Hco3, PH, Ec, TDS in the years (1990-2016), the health status of this area was evaluated using gene expression planning model. Data for years (1990-2006), (2007-2014), (2015-2016) were considered as training, test and error data respectively, and at least one year (from September 2016 until September 2017) as predictive data fitted using an algorithm with R2 0. 87 and RMSE 3. 003. In this study, the data were normalized and actual data. The results showed that by training in the model, the values of surface water quality variables of Taleghan watershed can be predicted with acceptable accuracy by investigating the data pattern. In general, when the data are normalized, the accuracy of the model is relatively 10% lower than accuracy of model with real data. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction The agricultural and industrial activities within the catchment area, as well as the disposal of urban sewage and industrial wastewater, affect the quality of water resources and, in most cases, reduce water quality. The set of changes and behavior that humans create in the watershed changes the state of normal life. One of the manifestations of these changes is to reduce or increase the quality of water. In recent years, we have generally encountered a decline in water quality and quantity. One of the criteria to assess the health and sustainability of a watershed is the study of surface water quality changes. Considering this criterion, the process of watershed changes can be determined. Using normalization of data or data in normal mode plays an important role in research results. We should use models that have the highest accuracy with the least computations and the ability to teach other people to use in all watersheds in Iran. In this study, the gene expression algorithm for modeling water quality data and its changes has been investigated. The current health status of the watershed is determined using the reference table. The proposed algorithm predicts the health status of the watershed until the end of September 2018. 2-Materials and Methods One of the methods for assessing the existing status of watersheds is to review the water quality and its changes. Considering that Taleghan watershed has different land use changes, these changes have reduced the quality of water resources in this watershed. In order to investigate these changes in different years, the gene expression has been used in data modeling and prediction. Normal mode and normalized data usage are two methods to check data on entering the model. First, the variables that had the most effect on the model were determined and then the gene expression algorithm was created. In order to evaluate the generated model, three factors of determination coefficient, mean error of absolute and root mean square error were used. 3-Results and Discussion Using the obtained results, it was found that during investigated time, the use of normalized data provides different results than normal data. As well as, variables whose trend is close to the linear trend shows higher modeling accuracy. Among the variables studied in the model training section, the highest correlation between natural data is related to the amount of PH and the lowest amount is magnesium. In the test section, electrical conductivity has the highest correlation, while magnesium has the lowest correlation. During the period of this study, the EC and TDS are 483. 33 and 271. 50, which are categorized as "healthy". Recorded data does not show any better value in this watershed. Water quality values, used from variables related to the watershed potential, show a relatively stable trend over time. The results show that data normalization has reduced the accuracy of the model and the impact rank in the model is different. Environmental data often has a nonlinear process which reduces the modeling accuracy. According to the average coefficient of determination 0. 87, it is expected that by the end of September 2018, the health status of the watershed will have been reduced to 27 and fall within the scope of recurrent cancer. 4-Conclusion This study was carried out using water quality data at Galinak station in Alborz province. The results of this study indicated that normalizing data to reduce the amount of data for increase the speed of their analysis, can affect the true results of modeling. The reference values of variables in each vary watershed according to their potential, and it is not possible to provide the same reference points for all watersheds in Iran. Changes in the natural data process, especially in annual scale, are slow, and it is recommended to pay attention to the causes of these changes. The results of this study showed that data modeling using the gene expression in terms of speed in data processing and accuracy in the results is acceptable and gives accuracy of over 70% in all variables. It is suggested that modeling of water quality data using normalization of numbers and natural conditions in other watersheds should be done in order to evaluate the accuracy of the model in both modes.

Tectonic and constructional movements have always played an important role in geomorphological changes. Identifying the nature of recent constructional movements has been of importance in understanding and interpreting landforms. In this research constructional movements in Eshtehard and Qazvin, located in the south and southwest of Tehran and southern slope of Alborz Mount, are investigated using Radar interferometry and geomorphological map of the basin. This technique is done using the images of Sentinel 1, which is located in band C radar range, with the average wave-length of 5/6 GHz. Geomorphological map of study area is provided in ArcMap GIS software, using Google-Earth images, DEM, Geological map, field visit, and sampling of landforms. Sentinel 1 Radar images are received from European Satellite site. Monitor changes are applied in SNAP software. According to the results of Radar Interferometry from 2015/10/3 to 2017/10/2, the whole study basin is tectonically rising. However, the rate of uplift in west and northwest of basin is greater than eastern and southern parts. Investigating geomorphological evidences such as consecutive alluvial fans, deviation of alluvial fans and remnants of lake terraces is totally in accordance with results from Radar interferometry indicating a high tectonic deviation speed in northwest of basin, that is around the city of Qazvin and Takestan, comparing with south and south-western of the basin. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction Neo-tectonic movements have created new surface landforms and controls their shapes and positions. So in the areas locating in tectonic activities’ range, there are forms which have been created under the influence of these activities. By investigating the forms mentioned above, it is possible to understand tectonic movements in most regions. However, using geo-morphological evidence for investigating tectonic movements is not useful in all regions, especially in the regions where erosion and other factors may reduce tectonic effects on geomorphology. In such regions using geo-morphological evidence is either inapplicable or very difficult and the results come with great doubts. A way used in computing displacement of events on earth’ s surface, is Radar Interferometry including unique capabilities in terms of dimensions, cost, time and accuracy over other techniques. However, it should be noted that the use of this technique yields accurate results, especially in obtaining tectonic displacement rates, depending on the special features such as the base line, the polarization, the time interval between the two images, the time taken to take two images, passing sensors and so on. By following these tips, you can get great results from this technique. Therefore in this research we try to assess the rate of movements and its evidence in Qazvin and Eshtehard Plains in the past years. 2-Materials and Methods In this study, sentinel 1 images and geomorphology map are used to investigate tectonic dynamics. The date in which first image was taken is 2015/10/02, and the second day is 2017/10/03 with 731-day interval. The baseline rate is 47 meters than the original image that shows an acceptable rate in doing Radar Interferometry. For both images vv polarization has been used which is suitable for surface change measurement. In order to draw geomorphological map of the study area for recognizing geomorphological shapes, we used geological map of the region, Hill-shade, Satellite images, Google Earth images, Aerial Photos and Digital elevation Model (DEM). So, basic information about geomorphological landforms was obtained and an initial map of the geomorphology of the region was drawn. Then, in a field visit of the area, the landforms drawn on the map, were matched within the landforms on the earth and the items that were hard to detect on the map, were recognized. Finally, the supplementary map was detected. And in another field visit, the map bugs have been fixed. 3-Results and Discussion Consistency between images is more than 0. 2 and in a range between 0. 23 and 0. 25. The pixel density above 0. 6 is very small including 10% of all pixels. The phase difference values for pixels in Radar Interferometry, are between 3. 14 to-3. 14. Extensive patterns of fringes are related to tectonic movements in the region that are visible on plain margins and highlands. However, obtained maps of the phases are very complicated and in order to show them in real forms, they must be unwrapped. Opened phases indicate the general trend of phase changes in the region. But to investigate tectonic evidence reflected in landforms, the region’ s geological map has also been used. The major sequences of alluvial fans are seen in the north basin and around Qazvin and Takisatan. Between these two cities sequence of three young alluvial fans and one old alluvial fan are noticeable. 4-Conclusion Having a look at this study, we conclude that the rate of tectonic uplift in northern margins of Qazvin and Eshtehard Plain Basin is more than that of southern parts. However, in the whole northern margins of the basin, this uplift is not the same; in northwest and west is more than northeast and east. In other words Qazvin and Eshtehard Plains around the cities of Qazvin and Takestan have the most uplift resulting in 3 new consecutive alluvial fans and an old one. In the north of Eshtehard plain there are low stretched hills that are 5 meters higher than surrounding areas. These parallel hills are stretched from south to the north with a west to east direction consisting of clay without layers that include a very calm and low slope deposition not so long ago. The erosion and direction of these clay deposits shows tectonic uplift in the west and north of the study area.

The development of discussions about industry and its effects on the environment, along with population growth, led to a sustainability paradigm in the world. Sustainability roots in environmental thoughts which is a multidimensional phenomenon nowadays including social, economic, and environmental issues. Therefore, this study aimed to evaluate and assess the sustainability of development in economic, social and environmental aspects in the counties of Ardabil Province. The research method is descriptive-analytical and quantitative. The population consists of 10 counties of Ardebil Province, based on census in 2015 and 2014. 3 economic, social and environmental components consisting of 10 economic indices, 16 social indices, and 14 environmental indices were used to evaluate. In this study, Analytic Network Process model (ANP) was used to express the relative importance of each indicator, and the sustainable barometer model was used to analyze the data. The results show that among the triple sustainability aspects, the economic aspect has more sustainability in comparison to the social and environmentally aspects. Indices of economic and social with the value of (0. 485) and (0. 469) have an average level of sustainability and the environmental aspect with a value of (0. 383) has a nearly unsustainable level. According to human well-being, among the 10 counties studied, only the city of (Sareyn), has an almost unsustainable level, eight cities (Khalkhal, Kosar, Garmi, Nir, Meshgin Shahr, Namin, Pars Abad, and Bableh Savar) have an average level of sustainability and a city of (Ardebil) has at an almost sustainable level. Also in terms of well-being of ecosystems of the counties studied, it suggests that seven cities (Garmi, Nir, Sareyn, Namin, Bableh Savar, Meshgin Shahr, and Khalkhal) are almost unsustainable, and three cities (Kosar, Pars Abad, and Ardabil) have an average level of sustainability. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction With the beginning of the industrial revolution in Europe and spreading it around the world, significant changes was made in human life. Increased food production and improved health, led to the increased population of the world. In accordance to this increase, it is anticipated that the population of the world increases to nine billion, from the existing six billion (United Nations, 2008). The increased population along with the development of industrial society, pollution and destruction of the environment, are turned into new problems and they have alarmed a danger in the world. It was here when the focus on development, was considered rather than the growth (Sarai & Alizadeh Shoorki, 2015: 452; Newton, 2012: 81; Baker, 2006: 18). Major development approaches in the twentieth century to respond to crises and problems caused by the above events included the approaches of modernization, dependence, neo-liberal economics, alternative development etc., which were all ineffective, hence the sustainable development approach was publically accepted as the subject of the day of the last decade of the twentieth century, in the late 1980s, after being raised in Our Common Future conference known as the Brundtland report. The result of this conference was a global agenda for a change in the concept and the practice of development (Cowen & Shenton. 2005. 2; Withford, 2009: 6; Barton et al. 2003: 18; Roseland, 1997: 199). Sustainability, as one of the important concepts of planning, is emerged in economics and environmental thought since its beginning, and then widely used to evaluate development (Hiremath et al. 2013: 555). 2-Materials and Methods The research method is descriptive-analytical and quantitative. The population consists of 10 counties of Ardebil Province, based on census in 2015 and 2014. 3 economic, social and environmental components consisting of 10 economic indices, 16 social indices, and 14 environmental indices were used to evaluate. In this study, Analytic Network Process model (ANP) was used to express the relative importance of each indicator, and the sustainable barometer model was used to analyze the data. Besides, three economic, social, and environmental components including 10 economic indices, 16 social indices, and 14 environmental indices are used for assessment. Based on the results of the literature and source of the following indicators were used as indicators of evaluation and research. 3-Results and Discussion According to the results of sustainability barometer of 10 counties studied, 7 counties including Garmi (0. 264), Nir (0. 276), Sareyn (0. 289), Namin (0. 318), Bilesuar (0. 381), Khalkhal (0. 382), and Meshgin Shahr (0. 395), respectively have an almost unsustainable status, and the counties of Kosar (0. 438), Pars Abad (0. 499), and Ardebil (0. 586) have an average sustainability status. Radar movement towards environmental sustainability of Ardabil Province presents the movement of the top of the chart to the county of Ardabil. Ardabil as the capital of the province has the best environmental performance compared to the rest of the counties. Indices like the population under coverage drinking water network, urban green space, the number of wastewater branches and waste amount under management of hospitals with a score of (1. 000) have the most positive effect on the sustainability of Ardabil, and the indices such as the area of natural forests (0. 000) have the least positive impact on sustainability. Also, the reason of unsustainability of the city of Garmi, was that among the 14 economic indices assessed in this study, 8 indices had the least positive impact (0. 000) in the sustainability of Garmi, and only the inverse index of percent of annual drainage of underground waters resources (1. 000) had a complete positive impact. Moreover, the whole of Ardabil Province in terms of environmental sustainability, with a score of (0. 383) is in a state of almost unsustainable. 4-Conclusions Rapid growth of cities’ populations in the developing countries due to the high rate birth and immigration from countryside to city, has increased the resource consumption and emission of pollution in them, and today, not only has it disrupted the economic and social balance within cities, but it has led to lack of regional ecologic balance within which they are located. Cities on the one hand, are considered as the centers of social, economic, and space development and on the other hand, they are the best places within which economic, environmental and social problems occur. In order to develop a scientific and rational basis for the policy maker to solve these shortcomings and sustainable spatial organization, the first step is to identify the effective factors on urban unsustainability and quantitative measurement and its spatial representation. Accordingly, the present study aimed at assessing and evaluating the sustainability of development in the counties of Ardabil Province in terms of the economic, social and environmental components. In this study, in order to express the relative importance of each index, the ANP model, and to analyze the data, the barometer sustainability model have been used. The results show that, based on economic sustainability, Sareyn County has a unsustainable status, counties of Pars Abad, Namin, Khalkhal, Meshgin Shahr, Garmi, Kosar, and Nir have an average sustainable status and the counties of Ardabil and Bilesuar are almost sustainable. According to social sustainability, county of Kosar, Nir and Bilesuar are almost in an unsustainable status and the counties of Garmi, Sareyn, Khalkhal, Meshgin Shahr, Namin, Ardebil, and Pars Abad are in an average sustainable status. Based on the environmental sustainability, the counties of Garmi, Nir, Sareyn, Namin, Bilesuar, Khalkhal, and Meshgin Shahr are in an almost unsustainable status and counties of Kosar, Pars Abad, and Ardabil are in an average sustainable status.

In arid and semiarid regions, the water quality of some rivers decreases by salinization while passing through some geological formations. This study aims to find the source of the hydrochemical salinity of Namaklan River. Sampling was performed at 6 points along the Namaklan River for 4 seasons and also from before and after the confluence of Godarkhosh River with the Namaklan River. Namaklan River water type is sodium chloride, and due to the persistence and insignificant changes of these elements in water, the chemical composition of river water is constant along the path, which was analyzed by independent samples t-test in Gachsaran and Aghajari Formations. The results showed that, the concentration of different ions and salts before the confluence is low in the Godarkhosh River while it increases at the point of conjunction. This is due to the arrival of different salts and ions from Namaklan River to Godarkhosh River. So that the amount of EC, SAR and RSC in Namkalan River in January were 336, 75 and 23 times more than before joining to the Godarkhosh River, respectively. Based on the chemical analysis and the existence of specific compounds in water samples, it was found that the source of salinity was the influence of Gachsaran formation, because the minerals and salts in the water of the river correspond to the chemical composition of Gachsaran formation. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction Increasing the salinity of natural sources of drinking water has been reported as one of the problems affecting low-income countries, but it has not yet been thoroughly investigated. Since sodium chloride is the main salt solution in water, even at a considerable distance from any evaporate formation, and understanding the chemical properties of water in sedimentary basins is important for several geological processes, such as the exchange of liquids and their transmission routes in rocks and the mechanisms for absorbing hydrocarbons. Salinity, which is one of the primary parameters to assess the quality of river water and its increase, has negative impacts on river consumption and river ecosystems, also leads to decrease the quality of surface water and underground water. The factors that negatively impact the quality and quantity of water resources include the geographic location, topographic features, and the expansion of the impervious geological formations, as well as the impact of these formations on water resources. Among the above-mentioned factors, geological formations, especially the Fars group (Gachsaran, Mishan, and Aghajari Formation), have the highest impact on water quality. Therefore, the general objective of this paper is to determine the salinity of the Namaklan River using the hydrochemical method, to study the spatial variation of salinity in the river, and to study the effect of geological formations on the salinity of this river. 2-Materials and Methods The Namaklan River is located in the southwest of Ilam province in a hot region near Iraq border, and the water of the Namaklan river flows into a large river in the south, called Godarkhosh River. Some of the saltwater is evaporated during the river path and the remains salt on the riverbanks, especially in the warm seasons, forms the special and interesting features. Initially, base map of the study area, stream network and geological formations were prepared, and then, the suitable sample points were identified. Formerly, by field survey, data of the source of water and the other 7 points were obtained at random interval method during the four seasons of the year, which the point 7 and 8 were located on the Godarkhosh River. The first six sampling points are located on the Namaklan River, with its first three points in the Gachsaran Formation and the next three points in the Aghajari Formation. The points were selected in areas where the flow of water was stable and without turbulence which can mix sediment to the water sample and at each point, the water samples collected by 1-liter bottles. Meanwhile, at the time of sampling, temperature, Electrical Conductivity (EC), pH and Total Dissolved Solids (TDS) were measured by portable electrical conductivity meter (EC meter). The samples were then transferred to the laboratory, and different ions (Ca, Mg, Na, HCO3, SO4, CL, NO3, PO4, Br, B, Zn, Hg, Pb, As, Mn, Fe, and Al) were measured. Finally, by examining the results using independent samples t test, the amount and trend of ion changes in the points and the different seasons were determined, and the river salinity source was determined based on measured parameters. 3-Results and Discussion After the analysis of water samples, the values of Na, Sodium Adsorption Ratio (SAR), Electrical Conductivity (EC), and Residual Sodium Carbonate (RSC) parameters were measured at different sampling points to determine different water grades based on the Wilcox classification. Based on the SAR and EC at points of 1 to 6, water quality was classified as C4-S4 (very salty-unsuitable for farming), but for the point 7 as the C4-S3 class (very salty-unsuitable for farming) and point 8 as the class C3-S2 (salty-usable for agriculture). Accordingly based on the percentage of sodium, the water quality for the point of 1 to 6 was bad, at point 7 in the susceptible class of and at the point 8 in the class of acceptable. Also, water quality based on RSC is suitable at all points. To determine the ionic frequency, first the concentration of anions or cations calculated, then the anions and cations ordered based on concentrations decreasingly. The water type is, in fact, the dominant anion and water facies are the dominant cationic. The water type in the 1 to 6 points was chlorine type and at the 7th and 8th places was sulfate type. Water facies at all sampling points was sodic. The abundance of ions indicates that from 1 to 6 points, which is related to the Namaklan River, the abundance of chlorine ions is due to the dissolution of salt at the depths of the Gachsaran Formation by intrusive waters. Based on the results obtained from the analysis of the samples, the amount of salts and different ions varies from place to place, which is influenced by the Gachsaran Formation. 4-Conclusion Gachsaran is one of the most important formations of the Zagros zone. The unique features of this formation have been given a special status from the point of view of earthquake, geology, engineering, hydrology and mechanical stratigraphy. Due to the similarity of the composition of the elements in the river water of Namaklan as well as Gachsaran Formation, it is concluded that the source of salinity of the spring is due to the geological formation of the area and also the mechanism of salinity of the spring water, which is penetrated by water and its composition with the bottom layer Gachsaran Formation shows that the salinity of the river is due to the geological formation.

Agriculture is one of the most important aspect of human life that has strong relationship with climate condition. Therefore, any changes in climatic condition lead to significant changes in agriculture. The main object of this study is to analyze the spatial dynamics of suitable agro climatic area of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan Province under climate change condition. Two types of date were used to determine the suitable agro climatic area for Alo-Vera Cultivation in Hormozgan Province namely: minimum and maximum temperature, long term mean annual rainfall and environmental factors such as slop, aspect, soil type and elevation. The analytic hierarchy process (AHP) also has been used to determine the special weight of each factor. The results from combination of variables showed that the southern coasts are the best regions to cultivate this herb. However, some parts were regarded as salt domes causing some limitations. The Northern parts was recognized as less significant regions for Aloe Vera growth. The Results indicated in 4 RCPs scenarios the agro climatic zones of Alo-Vera significantly changed in compared to current climatic condition. The results indicated that under RCP, 6 the spatial changes of Agroclimatic area of Aloe-Vera were greater than other scenarios. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction Climate change and agriculture are interrelated processes, both of which take place in a global scale. Climate change affects agriculture in a number of ways, including the changes in average temperatures, rainfall, and climate extremes (e. g., heat waves); changes in pests and diseases; changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide and ground-level ozone concentrations; changes in the nutritional quality of some food and changes in sea level. Climate change has been affecting agriculture unevenly distributed across the world. Future climate change will likely affect crop production negatively in low latitude countries, while effects on northern latitudes may be positive or negative. Climate change will probably increase the risk of food insecurity for some vulnerable groups, such as the poor. Agriculture contributes to climate change both by anthropogenic emissions of greenhouse gases and the conversion of non-agricultural land such as forests into agricultural land. Agriculture, forestry and land-use change contributed around 20 to 25% to global annual emissions in 2010. A range of policies can reduce the risk of negative climate change impacts on agriculture and greenhouse gas emissions from the agriculture sector. Aloe Vera is a succulent plant species of the genus Aloe. An evergreen perennial, it originates from the Arabian Peninsula but grows wild in tropical climates around the world and is cultivated for agricultural and medicinal uses. The species is also used for decorative purposes growing successfully indoors as a potted plant. This plant naturally occurs in extremely dry and poor soils. It will grow well in many different types of soil, from sandy to moderately fertile loam, as long as it has good drainage. As a succulent plant, aloe requires very little water and does not respond well to overly wet soil. It can tolerate drought, but a small amount of water will do wonders for the plant. The main object of this study is to analyze the spatial dynamics of suitable agro climatic area of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan Province of Iran under climate change condition. 2-Materials and Methods According to the main goal of this study, the analysis of the spatial dynamics of suitable agro climatic area of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan province under climate change condition, two types of date were used to determine the suitable agro climatic area for Alo-Vera cultivation in Hormozgan province. First type of the data includes climatic data that contain minimum and maximum temperature and also long term mean annual rainfall. Second type of the data included environmental factors such as slop, aspect, soil type and elevation. The Analytic hierarchy process (AHP) also has been used to determine the special weight of each factor and consequently the weighted overly according to assigned weighted has been applied to produce the Agro climatic map of Aloe-Vera cultivation suitability in Hormozgan Province. Four representative concentration pathways (RCPs) have been used to simulate the agro climatic condition of 2050. They describe four possible climate futures, all of which are considered possible depending on how much greenhouse gases are emitted in the coming years: RCP2. 6, RCP4. 5, RCP6, and RCP8. 5. The agro-climatic factors of Aloe Vera cultivation have been simulated under four RCPs and the Agro climatic map of Aloe-Vera cultivation suitability in Hormozgan province has been produced again for each RCP and compared to the agro climatic map of based period. 3-Results and Discussion The results of AHP algorithm based on 45 questioners, lead to developing the overlaying function to produce the Aloe-Vera cultivation suitability map as equation 1: Equation 1) the overlying function producing Aloe-Vera cultivation suitability map: Based on this equation the feasibility map of Aloe Vera cultivation in Hormozgan province has been produced which showed that the southern coasts are the best regions to cultivate Aloe Vera. The northern part of studying area suffered from low minimum temperature during the growing season of Aloe Vera that limited the Aloe Vera cultivation. Therefore, the northern parts of the study area was recognized as less significant regions for Aloe Vera growth. However, some parts have stains and regarded as salt domes and cause some limitations. The results indicated in 4 RCPs the agro climatic zones of Alo-Vera significantly changed in compared to current climatic condition. The results indicated that under RCP 6 the spatial changes of Agro climatic area of Aloe-Vera were greater than other scenarios. 4-Conclusion Climate change, as one of the main human faced challenges, leads to various and significant side effect in human life. Agriculture, as one of the most important aspect of human life, a has strong relationship with climate condition, so that any changes in climatic condition lead to significant changes in agriculture. The results of this study reveal that the southern portion of Hormozgan province is more suitable for Aloe Vera cultivation. In 4 RCPs the agro climatic zones of Alo-Vera cultivation significantly has changed in compared to current climatic condition.

Planning and deciding about consuming water in future, and optimized management of water in line with sustainable agriculture development, need the information the climate change. In this study, the effect of climate change on temperature, solar radiation and precipitation, were evaluated. Daily weather parameters of 30 synoptic stations during 1991 to 2010 were used. HADCM3 in downscaling model of LARS-WG under r scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for three 34-year periods from 2011 to 2045, 2046 to 2079 and 2080 to 2113 were applied to produce future data. The results of evaluation of model in basic period showed that the maximum accuracy of model belongs to the maximum temperature and the minimum accuracy is related to precipitation. In fact, NRMSE and r values of Tmax were 0. 005 and 0. 999, while they were 0. 079 and 0. 996 for the precipitation respectively. The prediction of weather parameters in future years indicated that the temperature and the solar radiation values will increase. However, the similar trend was not observed in precipitation. The scenario A2 was considered as the most crisis scenario, so that the increasing 2. 13% solar radiation and 24. 56 % temperature and decreasing 11. 59 % precipitation until 2113 are predicted. In general, with continuing the present condition and prediction of future climate change, the optimized management in agriculture and water resources is necessary. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction Planning and deciding about consuming water in future, and optimized management of water in line with sustainable agriculture development, need the information the climate change. During the last few decades, global climate change has been an important research task throughout the world. Therefore, its consequences have been addressed in many research works. The simulation of weather in a place can lead to predict the climatic events significantly. The assessment and prediction of future changes is regarded important to mitigate climate change impacts on water resources mostly due to economic and socio-economic affairs. The purpose of this research is to predict the weather parameters changes under different scenario of LARS-WG downscaling model over the country in future. 2-Materials and Methods In this study, the effect of climate change on temperature, solar radiation and precipitation, as the most important parameters of country in future years, were evaluated. Daily weather parameters of 30 synoptic stations during 1991 to 2010 were used, including minimum temperature, maximum temperature, precipitation and sunshine in daily scale. HADCM3 in downscaling model of LARS-WG under scenarios A1B, A2 and B1 for three 34-year periods from 2011 to 2045, 2046 to 2079 and 2080 to 2113 were applied to produce future data. 3-Results and Discussion The calibration step of model based on the weather parameters during 1991-2010 years in each station was done with high accuracy. The results of model evaluation in basic period showed that the maximum accuracy of model belonged to the maximum temperature, while the minimum accuracy is related to the precipitation. Although the accuracy of solar radiation was more than the minimum temperature, the accuracy of precipitation was less than the minimum temperature. The same results have been reported by Goodarzi et al. (2015) and Akhavan et al. (2015) what are in line with the present study. The NRMSE and r values of Tmax were 0. 005 and 0. 999, while they were 0. 079 and 0. 996 for the precipitation respectively. Although, in studies of Ansari et al. (2014) and Nasiri and Yarahmadi (2017), the accuracy of prediction of minimum temperature by LARS-WG was more than maximum temperature, the results difference can be due to area extent. In this investigation, the average of weather parameters in all station was used while the results as case study can be different. However, the calibration condition of model and time period are other effective factors in the results (Moradi et al., 2015). The prediction of weather parameters in future over the country under different scenarios by LARS-WG showed that the air temperature of country will increase in future as the maximum values to 4. 04 o C. Moreover, the increasing air temperature in cold period will be more tangible than warm period. The evaluation of spatial distribution of air temperature in both of cold and warm periods showed that in all scenarios the minimum temperature and the maximum temperature will happen in half north of country and in half south respectively. Similar to the air temperature, the amount of solar radiation will be more than the present value, although this increase will occur with less speed. According to results of precipitation, the temporal distribution of precipitation will have more changes in next years. Its trend will be increasing and decreasing. Spatial distribution of precipitation over country area in the future indicated that the less precipitation will be received in southeast region, while the most value will belong to the sea coast and southwest area. The scenario A2 was as the most crisis scenario, so that the increasing 2. 13% solar radiation and 24. 56 % temperature and decreasing 11. 59 % precipitation until 2113 are predicted. 4-Conclusion In general, the changes of air temperature will be slightly higher than other parameters changes in the future. Continuing the present condition and prediction of future climate change, the optimized management in agriculture part and water resources is necessary. Also, due to prediction of solar radiation increasing, it can be used in optimized management of energy and produce the power in future which can be more effective on water resources management.

Natural resources including forests, rangelands, rivers, sea shores, water fall, some mountainous landscapes such as caves, debris and alluvium fan are considered as unique heritages due to their contributions on environmental services and sustainability. However, these valuable resources are degraded mainly through anthropogenic land-use. Overcoming climate change and land resources degradation depends on controlling land-use change and saving our natural heritages, so that it is Achilles heel for overcoming environmental crisis. There are many factors contributing to land-use change mainly including climate change, land tenure and ownership, urbanization, official and legal shortcoming. Based on literature review and field verification, the climate change is more serious in semiarid areas due to lower precipitation and higher hydrological lost. Despite the drastic increase of water demand during drought both runoff losses and deforestation processes severely accelerate the land-use change. Decline the forest and rangeland area as well as soil nutrient and organic carbon depletion are the important on-site impacts of land-use change. Furthermore, the areas of fair rangeland are being shifted to poor condition due to both conversion to rain-fed lands and overgrazing. Climate change is the main aspects of land-use alteration due to negative change in soil quality, particularly the critical extrinsic characteristics including SOC, soil nutrients, soil aggregates and bulk density. If current land degradation and land-use change continue, other impacts in terms of water deficit, desertification and migration can be spread throughout the semiarid region of Iran. Absolutely, overcoming these challenges depends upon saving our heritages including natural resources, unique landscapes, and an attempt to do proper agricultural activities. Extended Abstract 1-Introduction Natural resources including forests, rangelands, rivers, sea shores, water fall, some mountainous landscapes such as save, debris and alluvium fan are considered as unique heritages due to their contributions on environmental services and sustainability. Furthermore, they are main adapting sources for combating climate change impacts in terms of erosion, flash floods, drought, dust and desertification. However, these valuable resources are degraded mainly through anthropogenic land-use change in terms of deforestation, converting to steep rain-fed lands, overgrazing and improper tillage practice. Declining of forest and rangeland areas as well as soil erosion are more severe in mountainous and hilly lands of upper catchments of dry-lands. This occurs because of population pressure, government policy, market demand and climate change as well as urbanization in the lowland areas, resulting in expansion of cultivation in the highlands. Most parts of natural resources in the mountainous and hilly area of Iran located in geological marly formations comprising fine grained materials such as clay and silt contents. Thus, due to accelerated land-use change and improper agricultural activities, both on-sit and off-site consequences in terms of siltation, dust blown, water scarcity, pests, flood, landslide incidence and soil carbon emission are spread throughout semiarid region of Iran. By and large, overcoming climate change and land resources degradation depends upon controlling of land-use change and saving our natural heritages, so that there is Achilles heel for overcoming environmental crisis. 2-Materials and Methods The review paper focused on land-use change and its impacts based on several research works in relation to land-use change in the semiarid regions, their study in other countries as well as reviewing recent relevant research reports worldwide. The conclusion and some main approaches solution were pointed based on climate change conditions. 3-Results and Discussion There are many factors contributing to land-use change mainly including climate change, land tenure and ownership, urbanization, official and legal shortcoming. Based on literature review and field verification during recent decade, the climate change is more serious in semiarid due to lower precipitation and higher hydrological lost such as runoff and evaporation causing forest mortality and drying of rivers borders, grasslands and spring territory promoting tillage practice and converting to arable lands. In addition, drought stress promotes outbursts pests and outbreak diseases in the forest, especially Zagros Forest. Despite the drastic increase of water demand during drought period, both runoff losses and evaporation agents severely accelerate the land-use change. Although rangelands and forests in Iran have been nationalized, the protection and rehabilitation programs could not be done successfully, because the current laws and administrative office were unable to confine the current level of land-use alteration, even though cause conflict of interest between land owners and environmentalists on the extraction of natural resources. The rapid expansion of urban areas due to rise in population and economic growth is increasing and additional demand on natural resources thereby causes land-use changes especially in megacities. It is estimated that about 4000 ha suitable irrigation lands with fertility soils are being converted to seven megacities annually in Iran. Consequently the agricultural lands have been drastically reduced from 0. 6 (1945) to 0. 16 (2004) ha per capita. There are several aspects of land-use change which can be divided into on-site and off-site effects. Declining of forest and rangeland area, soil organic carbon (SOC) and soil nutrients depletion are the important on-site impacts of land-use change. SOC decline resulted in both on-site and off-site impacts because of its multi-functions including primary source of plant nutrients, water holding, soil infiltration, soil aggregation and atmosphere carbon sink. Due to high clay and silt content and dominant smectite mineralogy in the Zagros regions, extreme on-sites consequence such as gully erosion and landslide occurrence with off-site impacts such as flood and even dust phenomena are aggressively being spread. In these regions, annually 130 thousand ha oak forest are degraded. Furthermore, the areas of fair rangeland are being shifted to poor rangeland and steep rain-fed lands due to both conversion to rain-fed lands and overgrazing. Climate change is the main aspects of land-use alteration due to negative change in soil quality, particularly the critical extrinsic characteristics including SOC, soil nutrients and soil aggregates and bulk density. According to several studies, the spatial variability and depletion of mentioned soil characteristics at least are triple in the rain-fed lands which was rangelands and forest before. Moreover, wind erosion, soil salinization, intensive sediment yield and flood hazard reduce water resources and reservoir dams’ capacities. Land-use change, urbanization and over applications of chemical fertilizers and pesticides attribute to reduction in arable land and harmful agricultural crops. In addition, water crisis, hydrological lost, eutrophication event from land-use change and improper agricultural activities should not be ignored. 4-Conclusion We concluded that splash flood and dust are tangible hazards during rainfall and dry season, respectively due to land-use change and improper agricultural activates. If current land degradation and land-use change will continue, other impacts in terms of water deficit, desertification and migration can be spread throughout the semiarid region of Iran. Absolutely, overcoming these challenges depends upon saving our heritages including natural resources, unique landscapes and an attempt to do proper agricultural activities.