JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS STUDIES IN IRAN
Year:2017 | Volume:5 | Issue:20 |Papers Count:12

This paper examines the possibility of natural gas pricing in assumed hub formation in Northwestern Iran, in the Turkey border line for exporting natural gas to Europe by the Schwartz-Smith (S-S)two factors modelas a reduced form model. In the recent years European countries would like to purchasing natural gas in order to short term contracts and it seems in near future market movment is toward mentioned contract. However it is a good chance for Iran’s natural gas export to European countries additionaly evral ntruption of natural gas export convey from Russia to Europe will highlight Iran’s position in the natural gas trade to Europe. Based on the S-S model results stochastic range of natural gas price simulated for oil price between 35 to 100 $/bbl. Natural gas CIF dynamic simulation is based on average of six main European hubs,then according to net back calculation estimated natural gas FOB price in Iran’s North-East hub.According to the model results FOB average price ranges is between 232 to 335 $/1000 cubic Meters. Comparison long term and short term simulated price has not any significant diffrences and if Iran exercise short term contract can increase trade flexibility in market and also made an advantage from transit fee of nighburing countries who interested to develop natural gas export to European market. Hub formation can be applied as a natural gas pricing focal point for all the buyers.

In this study to evaluate the wealth effect of increasing stock prices index on consumption and macroeconomic variables and also study the behavior of central banks in financial instability condition, a model of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) was designed. then, variables impulse response functions against technology shocks, monetary shock, government consumption expenditure shock and the stock price index were evaluated under two scenarios Central Bank. According to the first scenario, the central bank only reacts to the output and inflation gap through changes in money and by the second scenario, the central bank also reacts to stock price index gap in addition to output and inflation gap. According to variables response functions against one standard deviation of stock price index shock, at the moment of shock, inflation under both scenarios increased, but the consumption and production under both scenarios the central bank initially dropped and then began to rise as after just five of consumption and production increase. Thus it can be seen that the wealth effect increase in the stock price index on consumption and production is small and is created After some period. Therefore, it is recommended due to Lag and small increase of the stock price index on consumption and production, Central banks in order to financial stability and economic does not reduce money growth (as a political tool).

The undeniable fact in Iran is water restrictions. For this purpose, virtual water trade, could be a solution to reduce the impact of water restrictions. Also, wheat is a basic commodity that has a crucial role in food security. Therefore, the effects of wheat self-sufficiency policies on virtual water trade flows have been investigated by using the spatial equilibrium model. As a result, according to the region and the use of panel data method, the price elasticity of supply and demand function was estimated and by using price elasticity, the wheat market modeling has been performed. The results showed that the wheat self-sufficiency policy, increase in domestic production (20 %), falling demand (-8.3%) and rising prices in this market. Hence, reduces the welfare of society. On the other hand, by applying wheat self-sufficiency policy, the virtual water trade is affected, and more pressure is imposed on water resources, so that the supply of wheat in the country has increased, and more water is withdrawn at a rate of 2.30 liters.

According to the increasing in the usage of electricity, saving energy is so important. It can be occurred by both, optimizing consumption and the increasing of production efficiency. Small scale power plant (Distributed Generation (DG)) by reducing the distance of power production and consumption, declines a large part of this industry loss that is related to the distribution. The generators also have the ability to transform into the cogeneration system; As a result, by increasing efficiency, a great saving will happen in the production side of electricity industry. The issue of this article is the determination of priority of location of building DG. In this regard by using deviation from the optimum method and Human Development Index (HDI), according to data published by the Statistical Center of Iran and the Ministry of Energy, 9 provinces in the central area of Iran were selected and evaluated with 9 indicators. The results show that among the selected provinces the priority execution of power plant is first in Tehran, and then Isfahan.

The correct forecasting of oil prices plays an important role in conducting the monetary policy of different nations. Its importance is obvious in the countries exporting and importing oil. This paper uses the genetic algorithm to optimize the neural network model and structure. During the optimization process, the weights, biases and structure of the neural network are calculated. The aim of this work is reducing the complexities of using artificial neural network in forecasting. The performance of the proposed method (GADNN) is investigated by applying it WTI oil price time series prediction problems from 2012 to the end of 2015. The results show better performance and accuracy when we compare it with other neural networks model in prediction oil price.

One of the theoretical results of Solow-Swan neoclassical growth model is the convergence of per capita GDP in different regions. Conditional convergence model, in addition to the initial per capita GDP, concerns other variables that can affect long-term growth in areas under consideration. This study is to examine the disincentive role of crime in the establishment of the convergence of real per capita GDP among Iranian provinces (1379 to 1392). Conditional beta convergence and spatial econometric used to check integration. Crime index is calculated using TOPSIS method. The results show that the convergence of growth, though slow, is established. Crime index has negative and non-significant impact on the integration. ICT and human capital variables (education and health) have a positive impact on the province's average growth. Also negative sign for the spatial coefficient of dependent variable show that the concentration of economic power in one area for growth, reduces the power generated growth in adjacent areas.

The key notion of debt illusion implies that the determined level of government’s revenues and the short term and long term structure of tax influence the level of government’s expenditures and debts. The concept of debt illusion is of vital significance for an important discussion of macroeconomics, i.e. examination of the effects of fiscal policies on the behaviors of private sector. Keynesian theory of macroeconomics argues that in a determined level of government’s expenditures tax reduction as a result of financing the debts increases the total demand, while according to the alternative perspective better known as Ricardian Equivalence only replaces the current tax with the equivalent amount of the current value of the future tax. Ricardians argue that debt financing and financing by tax are equivalent and thus tax reduction is insignificant. This research seeks to study the effects of budget deficit and debt on private consumption. The difference between the present study and previous similar researches lies in using debt Ricardian hypothesis as means for comparing the traditional outlook with the equivalence problem. The research results show that replacing the government’s debts with tax leads to the increase in private consumption and it is a sign of debt illusion in Iranian economy.

The aim of this paper is to analysis of the enterprises institutional environment impacts on stone industrial clusters development of Isfahan metropolitan region (Mahmmoudabad, Najafabad, Dolatabad, and Khomeinishahr) in order to determine what extent is the impacts of enterprises institutional environment on stone industrial clusters development of Isfahan metropolitan region in term of its intensity and desirability. In this regard, the literature about “industrial clusters”, “institutional environment” and “the role of institutional environment on industrial clusters” were reviewed and a multi stage sampling method (stratified random sampling and systematic sampling methods) were used for data collection. Then, second order confirmatory factor analysis (as one of the structural equation modeling techniques) and linear scaling transformation technique were used for data anlysis. The results show that despite the potential influence of enterprises institutional environment on stone industrial clusters development of Isfahan metropolitan region, the enterprises institutional environment of selected industrial clusters have not still a very favorable impact in "enterprises regulations status", "enterprises worker’s characteristics", "enterprises manager’s characteristics" and "relationship between workers and managers status" and the impact remains in moderate level. In addition, "vision and goal clarification for managers", "awarenaess of workers about their work", "awarenaess of managers about their work" and "the relationships between managers and workers" have more role than "vision and goal clarification for workers", "workers satisfaction about their work", "managers satisfaction about their work", and "workers relationships" on the industrial clusters development within enterprises institutional environment respectively. Thus, it can be said that the institutional environment of selected industrial clusters is still at the primary level especially in workers status and need improving actions.

Extending non-petroleum export and diversifying export revenues were vital in order to reduce Economic development goals vulnerability. Due to importance of Medicinal Plants in Iran’s non-petroleum export, present study determined market structure and Ranks of Exporting Target Markets of Iranian Medicinal Plants (case study: Anise, badian, fennel, coriander). The investigation period is 2001 through 2012. For determine Irans’ export market structure of Medicinal Plants, herfindahl and concentration ratio indices and For ranking export target markets were applied numerical taxonomy analysis. Whereas, reverse value of the Herfindahl index fluctuated during the studied period from one to four. Therefore Irans’ export structure during the period always followed a dominant firm and Closed oligopoly and Iran does not have export diversity.Also according to the share between 4 to 92 percent of Iranian exports, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and UAE were the biggest commercial parties of Iran. The results revealed that Viet Nam, Kyrgyzstan, Zimbabwe, Uzbekistan, Georgia, Cameroon, Jamaica, Armenia, Bangladesh, India, Libya were selected as Iran’s Medicinal Plants exports target markets.

Productivity along with other factors is one of the determinants of economic growth. The main objective of present study is to investigate the impact of financial development and bank credit payments on factor productivity of industrial sector; Using ARDL model. For this purpose, time series data for the industrial sector during the period of 2013 -1983 and numerical index of total productivity factor was used. Further, to specify the econometric model, in addition to bank credits other crucial variables such as the cost of research and development and capital to production ratio, as the main variable affecting total factor productivity of Iran industrial sector was used. The results of the study indicate that in the period under review, the capital credits rendered through banking facilities has a positive impact in short term with one year lag (0.027) as well as in long term (o.o44) on total factor productivity of Iran industrial sector. Moreover, the Current credits rendered through banking facilities have a positive impact in short term (0.032) and no meaningful impact in long term on total factor productivity of Iran industrial sector. On the other hand, the research and development costs have significantly positive effect on productivity of the entire industry, in the short term (0.013) and in long term (0.039). Finally, the Error Correction coefficient (ECM = -0.35) obtained in the short term was statistically significant and in accordance with the expected amount, that represents a 35 percent adjustment of short-term imbalances total factor productivity output per period to the long-term trend in the industry.

With respect to the role of the uncertaity of oil price in the Iran's economy, this study analyzing the response of economic activity and monetary policy to oil shocks on the Iran's economy by using structural vector autoregressive model (SVAR) and impulse response functions techniques in Iran for 1990-2014 periods. The results indicate that a shock in oil price uncertainty and increase fluctuations in oil prices caused adverse reactions in economic and industrial growth. Also results indicate that an oil price uncertainty and increase fluctuation in oil prices cause the direct reaction from inflation and liquidity as indicators of monetary policy.In other words, the long-term effects there are an inverse relationship between oil price uncertainty and increase fluctuations with economic growth and industrial growth, as an indicator of economic activity. Also, there is a direct relationship between uncertainty and fluctuation of oil price (in total long-term effects), price index and monetary aggregates.