JOURNAL OF APPLIED ECONOMICS STUDIES IN IRAN
Year:2012 | Volume:1 | Issue:2|Papers Count:7

This paper estimates the long term trend in Iran real GDP using a new econometric technique, Adaptive Least Squares (ALS). ALS is a special case of the Kalman Filter that allows for a time varying parameter model to be estimated relatively easily. The estimated trend is then used to estimate the output gap. According to results, coefficients of gaps in models with gap, are not significantly different from zero, there up on model with intercept and trend and without any gaps have been tested. The output gap estimation that has been provided in this paper can be used in monetary policies. The comparison of results of ALS, OLS and HP filter shows that the ALS method provides a better estimate.

Studying the relationship between government size and providing of public good by devising an empirical test that would provide information on the validity of the demand-driven theory against all of the remaining Theories which explaining government size seems important for assessing the welfare implications of government size. In this paper, we use a panel estimation method for OECD and OIC countries over the period 1995 -2008 to evaluate the theory of government as a public goods provider by studying the relationship between government size and the provision of a particular, public good, namely environmental quality. We have found that the government size has a negative effect on air quality but for government quality this relation is inverse. That is, countries with a larger government size tend to suffer from higher levels of air pollution. This result suggests that besides the known factors there are additional channels, corruption, bureaucratic, through which a large government may have harmful consequences for the environment.

Despite the widespread usage of input-output analysis among economists, enormous amount of time and resources for construction of survey-based tables made a serious constraint for their analysis. This fact leads researchers to innovate non-survey-based techniques for updating tables. For using these methods, we have to, first; decide which of them estimates the best tables. Also, some studies in different countries show high priority for RAS and modified RAS methods, current study doesn't support this outcome for Iranian economy. This means that however researchers in Iran used RAS method widely for updating I-O tables, this method doesn't estimate target tables in the economic context of Iran tolerably. Authors conclude following foreigner studies without any attention to uncertainties and institutional breaks of domestic economic and statistical structures, can lead us to unacceptable consequences.

The main objective of this paper is to investigate the impact of exchange rate volatility on the exchange rate pass-through in Iran during the 1975-2009. For this purpose, the exchange rate volatility has been developed by GARCH approach and the research model has been estimated by applying TVP technique.The empirical results of this study indicate that exchange rate volatility has positive and other explanatory variables such as output gap, marginal cost of exporting countries and exchange rate have had positive and significant effects on the import price index.The main conclusion reveals that the exchange rate volatility reinforces the exchange rate pass-through in Iranian economy.

Applied researches in many financial markets show that Stock price index will fluctuate with changes in macroeconomic variables. Since the stock value in theory is equal to the sum of discounted future cash flows and these cash flows are affected by macroeconomic events. Therefore they can be also affected by oil shock. This study aims to investigate asymmetric effects of oil price shocks on the stock price index in Iran. In this regard, SVEC model with Bootstrap Confidence Interval in Impulse Response Functions are used.The estimation results of Impulse Response Functions and Forecast Error Variance Decomposition indicate that positive oil price shock has an increasing effect on stock price index while negative oil price shock decreases the stock price index. Also the results show that the effects are asymmetric, So that the effect of negative oil price shock on the stock price index is far larger and more lasting than the positive oil price shock. The results of confidence intervals in IRFs indicate that impulse responses of stock price to oil shocks are reasonable and significant in all cases.

This paper investigates the casual relationship between human capital, social capital and economic growth of Iran for the period 1971-2008. We examine unit root properties of the time series. Along with the traditional unit root test, we use the procedure developed by Zivot and Andrews (1992) to test the null of unit root against the break stationary alternative. We use a modified version of the Granger causality test due to Toda and Yamamoto (1995). Then we use eight variables as indicator of the social capital. Although the results were sensitive to them but most of the indicators of the social capital show that:1. Human capital causes Social capital.2. There is bidirectional causality between economic growth (with oil) and social capital.3. Social capital causes economic growth (without considering oil).

Inflation as a major economic index has been considered by many researchers whom studied its effect on different economic variables including the performance of financial markets. For this purpose we employed the ratio of liquid liabilities to GDP, the ratio of credit allocated to private enterprises to total domestic credit, the ratio of credit allocated to private enterprises to GDP, ratio of commercial banks domestic assets to the banking system assets and also a multilateral indicator –which calculated by Principle Component Analysis through a weighted mean of the four indicators- as financial development measures. Besides, for considering of effect of inflation on financial development we use Quintile econometric method. The empirical results revealed that high inflation rates in Iranian economy made that financial intermediaries are not able to perform at their highest level of efficiency and effectiveness. In fact, inflation had had a negative significant effect on financial development in Iran, so it can be considered as one of the critical challenges of financial intermediaries in Iran.