ECONOMIC STRATEGY
Year:2018 | Volume:7 | Issue:25 |Papers Count:6

Five development plans evaluation experiences shows that the used models and methods have not been effective, efficient and unable to give suitable and timely feedback to policy makers. However, current evaluation system give some feedback, but this feedback not accurate and timely. In recent years, public policy evaluation with causal relationships and feedback structures attract public policy scientists. This paper used system dynamics approach to present the evaluation model based on feedback loops. Research data collected through exploratory interviews with experts, then using qualitative content analysis to analyze data. When variables and their relationships identify, the feedback loops designed and combined to design evaluation model by causal loop diagram. This model create feedback loops between leadership, resources, processes and results. Feedback structure helps to better understanding causes of goals not meeting and formulation solutions for effective implementation.

The study has been done to predict the total factor productivity in Iranian economy in 1996 to 2016 years. In this study, the feed forward neural network whit back propagation algorithm used to predict. 5 different configurations of inputs are used to design 5 models and 30 different scenarios in each model on the number neurons, designed and implemented to predict. Best models of neurons and networks of neurons fourth model with 19 active functions TANSIG input and output function is LOGSIG and by correlation coefficient (R) Mean Square Error (MSE) and root mean square error (RMSE) and normalized root mean square error (RMSE N), a Best model has been selected and they are equal to 0. 9985, 0. 0111, 0. 1055 and 2. 62, respectively. This indicates that the artificial neural networks were designed in this study have the ability to predict the Iranian economy's total factor productivity.

Policies are the crystallization of words and slogans, and this is one of the most complex and valuable capabilities in terms of the magnitude of the dimensions of work and the multitude of deterrents. By studying and studying the complex process of energy policy in the country Oil and gas by the relevant institutions, we are witnessing inadequacies in the full realization of the country's oil and gas policies due to shortcomings in the executive model. In this paper, quantitative research method and using random sampling method with questionnaire due to the high population of oil and gas society of the country were estimated to be 384 people. The validity of the content validity method was used for all. Variables CVR values above 0. 49 and CVI above 0. 79 were obtained and Cronbach's alpha coefficient was used for reliability. Overall, this coefficient was 0. 956 for each of the 14 research variables above 0. 70. According to the statistical analysis of research questions and the relationship between factors affecting the implementation of oil and gas policies in the country, the highest priority was given to the following factors: energy sector policy and its nature, sanctions, policy tools, Regional political developments, oil and gas players' behavior, funding for oil and gas policies, behavioral and personality characteristics.

One of the main macroeconomic phenomena that has affected Iran's economy for many years is inflation. In line with the importance of this phenomenon and the need to identify the factors affecting it, In the present study, the existence of non-linear relationships between inflation and other influential variables, especially the monetary base, has been examined and in fact, it has been evaluated the threshold effect of high power money on inflation. For this purpose, the Sidesrakis approach and the framework of the nonlinear smooth transition auto-regressive have been used in the period of 1354 to 1392. Among variables such as monetary base, exchange rate, capital and time preference rate and internal rate of return; monetary base was chosen as variable transition. The results showed that: A) Nonlinear Logistic Model, based on the Terasvirta test, has a better estimation than a linear models. B) Inflationary pattern follows regulations of two regimes. In the first regime, the high power money has a positive effect on inflation and is multiplied in the second regime. C) Capital, time preference rate and Internal rate of return have a negative effect on inflation in the first and second regimes; so that the negative effect of variables is reduced in the second regime. D) The transfer speed is 0. 9 and show that the speed of adjustment in the first regime is higher than the second regime.

In this research, the net energy import dependency index of energy imports for the world and Iran’ s markets have been used to establish a criterion to analyze conditions of Iran’ s natural gas and oil exports. NEID Index is one of the most popular and most widely used indexes in energy supply and security demand studies. There are various forms of this index due to energy and market studies. In the current research, we used the index to investigate three energy markets of China, India and the European Union. We provide a detailed description of the conditions of selected energy markets and the significance of them in delineating the amount of global energy demand. Next, a scenario has been developed for each market. Considering various energy carriers, the amount of NEID index on energy imports of each market are computed in 2015, and in horizon 2020 and 2030. Having analyzed the quantity of indexes of each market on three-time horizons indicate that dependency on India imports is more than China and the European Union in 2020, and 2030. Moreover, it will become more dependent on India imports over time. On the other hand, despite the fact that EU has lowest energy dependency in 2015, it will have passed through China and gain the most degree of dependency on energy imports in comparison to India. The acts of Iran’ s energy exports in line with priorities of NEID index to imports of important global energy markets, can be the first step towards good policy-making of oil and natural gas exports.

Although the issue of integration and analysis of import components has often been considered by policy makers and economic analysts of the country, but after communicating the general policies of resilient economy and focusing on paragraph 6 of these policies, it is intended to increase domestic production and prioritize the production of strategic goods and services and create Variety in the supply of imported goods with the aim of reducing dependence on limited countries Considering the composition of the main import items can be a solution. In this study, the import of 200 major imported goods in 1395 with four components of the tariff, type of consumption, currency allocation and distribution of goods accounting for about 60% of the total value of imports, has been analyzed to link with the support of domestic production And import management. The results of this study show that although it is possible to manage the import of some of these 200 commodities through tools such as short-term and targeted import restrictions to boost domestic production, unfortunately, no measures have been taken to reduce the impact of national production. According to the general policies of the resistive economy, urgent measures must be taken.