IRANIAN JOURNAL OF EPIDEMIOLOGY
Year:2022 | Volume: | Issue: |Papers Count:8

Background and Objectives: The COVID-19 epidemic and its subsequent effects have become a significant global challenge. In addition to being affected by this crisis, Iran is also facing many other problems, including sanctions and economic problems. So, there is a concern that it will suffer more severe consequences. Methods: Scenario planning is one of the ways to recognize future changes and environmental uncertainties. This study used the so-called global business network (GBN) method, also known as the scenario matrix method. This method is based on two key uncertainties and six steps have been taken to examine variables related to health and socio-economic factors and use the opinions of relevant experts. Results: To be expected, Iran's health system will be able to manage the epidemic in the face of various conditions with severity and weakness, and only in the pessimistic scenario or in Worst-case scenario with the default assumption of the continuation of sanctions and the spread of the epidemic. It leads to global restrictions, loss of foreign exchange reserves, loss of performance or collapse of the health system, increasing the number of deaths and diminishing the quality of life. Conclusion: Regarding the COVID-19 epidemic and the existing background factors, scenarios of Iran’, s health and economic conditions were narrated. Given the ability of the scenarios to understand the complexity and help in decision-making, it is considered a useful tool for policy makers to have a broader, comprehensive and reasonable look to achieve a correct consensus. This situation leads to the preservation and continuation of society health and conventional economic decisions.

Background and Objectives: Colorectal cancer is the second and fourth most common cancer in Iranian women and men, respectively. This cancer ranks fourth and fifth in men and women, respectively, among Yazd population. This study aimed to estimate the burden of colorectal cancer in Yazd province in 2016. Methods: This descriptive cross-sectional study was performed on the population of Yazd province in 2016. CanMod software was used to calculate the burden of colorectal cancer. The required information included the population of Yazd province, the incidence of colorectal cancer, the death rate due to colorectal cancer, the death rate due to all causes and the survival rate of patients,The Cancer Registration System, the Provincial Death Registration System and the opinions of provincial experts were collected and included, respectively. Results: The total burden of colorectal cancer in Yazd province was 632 years (382 years in men and 250 years in women),The YLL and YLD of colorectal cancer in both genders were 478 years and 154 years, respectively. The burden of colorectal cancer in men was 65 years and in women 45 years (per 100, 000 population). The peak age of disease burden was estimated in the age group over 60. Conclusion: Due to the high incidence and treatment in the early stages of the disease, screening and diagnosis in the early stages can be one of the health priorities of the province. However, the final judgment is made when the burden of other diseases and injuries is calculated in the province.

Background and Objectives: Faster than expected, the COVID-19 disease changed people's lives on an unprecedented scale. The present research aimed to shed light on the economic challenges of the pandemic and the efforts made concerning economic resilience. Thus, this study delved into the experience of families residing in a suburban town. Methods: The present study was qualitative in type. It used a qualitative content analysis with a guided approach conducted through 17 in-depth semi-structured individual interviews with subjects over 15 years of age living in Tawheed Gonabad town. These subjects had lived in the area for at least three years. The interviews were held and audio-recorded in a purposive sampling method after gaining informed consent from the participants in the spring of 2021. In order to estimate the validity of the data, Lincoln and Goba's criteria were used. Results: The economic resilience of families during the pandemic was marked by three main categories and nine sub-categories. The categories were: 1) changes to the economic dimension of the family (the sub-categories: employment, income, consumption and socioeconomic status), 2) solutions to the economic changes of the family (sub-categories: reliance on internal resources, family and receiving support from outside of the family), and 3) the effectiveness of economic resilience of families at higher levels (sub-categories: macroeconomics, family social capital and regional resilience). As more detailed results showed, the pandemic has caused a decrease in the income and consumption of essential items in quantity and quality and imposed excessive costs on the target community. The dominant solution to economic problems has been changing consumer’, s behavior and income diversification. The lack of supportive plans, poor social networks and the identity of the neighborhood are the significant barriers to the increase of economic resilience. Conclusion: The families investigated in the present study were vulnerable in many ways and had low economic resilience. In order to improve the families' level of economic resilience, it is necessary to know the context and carry out interventions and support plans based on the families' internal and external capacities, including the neighborhood's empowering conditions.

Background and Objectives: Human resources are the center of sustainable development in advanced management. Health, Safety and Environment (HSE) is a system that consistently and by means of human resources, facilities and equipment and tries to create a healthy, pleasant, fresh environment away from accident, damage and waste. This study was conducted to assess the health performance, Safety and Environmental Indicators (HSE) in the field of human resources development of Tehran Municipality. Methods: This study was conducted as a descriptive cross-sectional and, the study base was all 22 districts of Tehran municipality. After designing and validating of HSE performance evaluation protocol, HSE status was evaluated in 22 districts of Tehran. The aforementioned protocol contained seven sections: leadership and commitment, policy and strategic goals, organization and documentation, risk management, planning, implementation and monitoring, audit and review). Its validity and reliability were determined by obtaining corrective opinions from specialists and experts inside and outside the municipal organization. Results: In most areas of Tehran municipality, the inter-organizational communication index was the highest score. The highest score (68%) is related to this index. The mean overall score for performance evaluation was 46. 6. Conclusion: The HSE situation was undesirable (less than 70%) in more than half of Tehran's municipalities. Regions 4 and 7 were in desirable status (above 70%). Thus, for current situation improvement, we should use long-term strategy planning in the field of HSE.

Background and Objectives: Serological studies are based on the detection of antibodies. However, the produced antibodies decrease over time,therefore, such methods cannot provide a valid estimate of prevalence and incidence. The present study aimed to determine the serum prevalence and cumulative incidence in the Ravansar cohort population (Youth and RaNCD Cohort) in October 2020. Methods: A random sample of 716 people aged > 18 years old were selected from the participants in the Ravansar cohort study in October 2020. Euroimmun anti-SARS COV-2 IgG ELISA kits (Lü, beck, Germany) were used to measure antibody levels. Seroprevalence was estimated with considering of cut-off = 1, and cumulative incidence (modified and modified based on test specificity) was determined using modeling. Results: In the present study, the serum prevalence of COVID-19 viral infection in the Ravansar cohort population from 22 October 2020 to 18 November 2020 was estimated to be %35. 16 (95%CI: %31. 64, %38. 79). Modified Cumulative incidence and modified based on test characteristics from 20 February to 18 November 2020 were estimated to be %68. 85 and %67. 71, respectively. Conclusion: Although very high cumulative incidence may be a sign of approaching herd immunity, adherence to health protocols is still recommended due to the potential role of asymptomatic cases in transmitting the disease to other members of the community,and the presence of new variants of the virus and reduced antibody levels should be considered.

Background and Objectives: The socioeconomic factors affecting health include various variables that are not clearly and consistently classified in the studies. This study aimed to identify and classify the main socioeconomic variables affecting household health. Methods: This applied study was conducted with a quantitative approach and a systematic review method in 2019. A systematic review of the studies with PRISMA protocol was used to search and identify the main socioeconomic variables affecting household health in international and national scientific databases. The inclusion criteria included focusing on socioeconomic variables affecting health at the household level, providing a specific model for influencing socioeconomic variables on health, publishing in English or Persian, and accessing the full text of the study. The qualitative evaluation of the studies as well as their conformity with the inclusion and exclusion criteria, were performed by peer review. All socioeconomic variables were extracted in researcher-made form, classified using MAXQDA 2018 software and finally synthesized narratively. Results: Twenty-one conceptual models were identified to influence socioeconomic factors on household health. Researchers and international organizations provided all models, and no native models were found in Persian regarding socioeconomic factors affecting household health. Content analysis of the studies showed that the three main variables of education, income and employment in all models (100%) were used as socioeconomic factors affecting health. After that, household health behaviors (81%), age (71%), family support (71%), housing area per capita (67%), place of residence (67%), social capital (62%) and gender (57%) were the most commonly used socioeconomic variables affecting household health respectively. Conclusion: In addition to vital socioeconomic variables (education, income, and employment), other contextual variables such as household health behaviors, family support, per capita housing area, and social capital need to be considered for policy interventions. In addition, it is suggested that a native model of socioeconomic factors affecting health be designed for Iranian households' socioeconomic conditions.

Epidemiology is generally defined as the basic science and art of disease prevention and health promotion. Historically, it began with the accounting of death in major epidemics in the Middle Ages. Over the years, it has evolved into the basic science and art of dealing with mass phenomena of disease occurrence and public health. It is now gaining eminence in dealing with all kinds of mass phenomena beyond disease and public health. Prior to the 1970s when teaching of epidemiology became a distinct training in academia, most epidemiologists were highly experienced practitioners of infectious and parasitic diseases and drew from their vast experiences in suggesting interventions for infectious disease control. With the prominence of non-infectious and chronic diseases, the need for special training with particular emphasis on biostatistics became apparent and has extensively developed to the present state. In Iran, epidemiological practice and training began with the national efforts in combating the main scourges of Malaria, Trachoma, Schistosoma infestation, cholera, and other diseases that impacted the country with high endemicity and regular epidemic outbreaks. This brief paper describes the development of epidemiology training in Iran in more detail.