Journal of Fiscal and Economic Policies
Year:2024 | Volume:11 | Issue:44|Papers Count:6

The economic literature shows that the increase in the level of inflation can affect the economic welfare through different ways and cause a loss of well-being in the society. Therefore, considering the importance of measuring the welfare cost of inflation, in this study based on neoclassical model and various utility functions in the Sidrauski model in the framework of an equilibrium model, we investigate the steady state path of the welfare cost of inflation based on the parameters in Iran's economy. The findings of this research show that in all three scenarios based on the linear utility function, the Lucas utility function and CES utility function, the increase in inflation leads to the loss of household consumption in the equilibrium state and as a result the welfare cost increase. But when inflation is at Friedman's optimal level or zero rate, the welfare cost of inflation is very small or close to zero. Also, other results of this research show that an increase in the level of inflation, in addition to an increase in the welfare cost of inflation, will lead to a decrease in the equilibrium level of household utility, as well as a decrease in the real balance of money and an increase in the inflation tax in the economy. Other findings of this research show that in the 90s in Iran's economy, when we have seen the highest growth in the price level in the period after the revolution, in all the existing scenarios, the welfare costs of inflation were significantly at the highest level. Therefore, monetary and financial policymakers are advised to always pay special attention to the role of inflation in reducing economic well-being in the implementation of their policies and measure the potential losses caused by deviation from Friedman's rule and zero inflation rate and put policy solutions to reduce these losses on the agenda.

Every economic and financial variable has a series of fundamental variables that have a significant impact on its price. In fact, researchers consider price deviations in financial assets as pricing bubbles. In this regard, the present research has investigated the price bubble in the exchange rate in Iran's economy by considering two important fundamental variables of the exchange rate, i. e. Inflation and liquidity growth. Therefore, the generalized Dickey-Fuller test based on the Markov rotation model and seasonal data of the Iranian economy has been used during the period of 1990-2021. For this purpose, first, the generalized Dickey-Fuller test was specified in the form of a Markov switching model for the exchange rate, and then, based on the Monte Carlo method, estimated coefficients and t-statistics were used to investigate the stationary or price bubble in the exchange rate. The results showed that there is a possibility of a price bubble in the regime of fluctuating exchange rates. Therefore, in order to ensure this issue, the fundamental variables of the exchange rate were specified in the form of a Markov switching model in order to determine whether the fluctuations and jumps observed in the exchange rate are due to a price bubble in the exchange rate or due to a natural reaction to changes in inflation and Liquidity growth.

Dollarization is one of the issues that occurs to maintain the purchasing power of economic units in a country during sudden exchange rate shocks, and it can affect all markets, especially the stock market. The purpose of this article is to use the Lag-Augmented Vector Autoregressive (LA-VAR) model to evaluate the dynamics of Granger causality relationships between the exchange rate, partial dollarization and stock market in Iran's economy. For this aim, monthly data was used for the period from March 2009 to November 2022. The findings of the Recursive Evolution (RE), Revolving Window (RO) and Forward Expansion (FE) algorithms showed that there was no causal relationship between the exchange rate and the stock market return. Only in the period of April 2017 to November 2019, there has been the bidirectional causality between the exchange rate and stock market return, and after that, the causality direction has been from the exchange rate to stock market return. Also, the exchange rate and dollarization causality results indicated that the exchange rate was the Granger causality of dollarization from January 2012 until November 2013, after which the exchange rate has increased from 18000 IRR to 30000 IRR and the index of dollarization increased from 0. 3 to 0. 5. On the other hand, in most of the period from 2018 to the fall of 2020, the exchange rate has been the dollarization Granger causality. So, according to the shocks source, an appropriate policy should be considered for the exchange rate or the dollarization possibility.

Regarding the important role of inflation in Iran's economy, the various studies using different methods and periods have been done on the factors affecting inflation. Due to the many studies on explaining the causes and roots of inflation in Iran's economy, the aim of the present article is concentrated on the meta-analysis of inflation studies and the measuring of effect size for all affecting factors. Based on the minimum number of study criteria in doing the meta-analysis, the effect size has been calculated by combining inflation with the explanatory variables, including liquidity growth, budget deficits, exchange rate and inflation expectations. The results reveal that the combination of estimated coefficients for all explanatory variables is statistically positive, significant and homogeneous, which are 0. 805, 3. 344, 5. 36 and 0. 585, respectively.

The purpose of this study is to investigate the experimental effect of non-renewable natural resources on the quality of regulation and economic growth in Iran, as a rich country in natural resources, for the period of 1997-2021. In order to achieve these goals, a model including the production function, regulatory quality changes and the creation of new technology has been designed, assuming the distribution of productive labor in these three economic sectors. The results show the negative effect of non-renewable natural resources on economic growth, so the elasticity of production with respect to the mentioned resources is-0. 043%. The elasticity of production with respect to the quality of regulation is estimated to be equal to 0. 10, so the improvement in the quality of regulation has led to an increase in production. The effect of non-renewable natural resources on changes in regulatory quality has become statistically insignificant, but the effect of GDP per capita on changes in regulatory quality has been positive. Therefore, both regulatory quality and economic growth are endogenously determined and mutually affect each other. It is recommended that policymakers should simultaneously focus on solving the institutional and non-institutional issues of the resource curse.

For decades, researchers of tax systems and tax payment have investigated the factors affecting taxpayers' inconsistent behavior. Several experimental and survey results obtained by these researchers have identified the characteristics of non-committed taxpayers and factors affecting tax evasion, as tax revenues are seen as the main source of income in financing government expenditures. In this study, we aim to identify the key drivers of tax evasion in Iran with a future research approach. In this research, using the Delphi method and the participation of 31 experts, the results were analyzed in the environment of MicMac software, and then these factors were determined based on the degree of importance and uncertainty, prioritization and the most critical factors, and to identify the drivers. Key features of the software (Micmac) have been used. The results according to the matrix of direct influence in the output of this software indicate that the index of weak understanding of organizational ethics and social responsibilities in the ethical decision-making of professional accountants, weak trust in the government and legal requirements based on the possibility of detection and punishment, in the rank The first to third direct and variable influence of the lack of tax culture in the society has been placed in the first rank of indirect influence.