Protective and Security Researches
Year:2018 | Volume:7 | Issue:26 |Papers Count:6

The main purpose of the political systems from establishing and providing a license to the security institutions is to use these intelligence activities to protect policy makers from the loss of security or security threats. In this regard, the main philosophy of the intelligence cycle is to warn against future anti-security events; on this basis, intelligence defeat is defined as surprise and unpredictable crisis. The purpose of this study is to explain the 'optimal warning cycle' in intelligence – security activities and to answer the main question of “ what stages form the optimal warning cycle? ” . In order to answer this question, this study uses library study and the Delphi method in three phases and the idea of 7 experts in intelligence and security field to reach a theoretical stability and consensus. As a result, the proposed optimal cycle was formed with five peripheral stages: need assessment, warning, vigilance and prevention and a connecting core in the form of assessment and production of 'knowledge'.

Regardless of the dimensions and components of any organizational architecturalpattern, the academic framework that is characterized by the knowledge ofthis domain as an important process and perspective, is necessary to completeany organizational architectural pattern. Indigenizing scientific patterns does notmean to backtrack on its scientific principles. Knowledge dimension of architectureas the scientific form of organizational architecture prevents the patternfrom losing its effectiveness and provides a basis for measuring scientific efficiencyof the pattern. In security organizations such as other organizations, theexistence of an organizational architectural pattern is essential and knowledgedimension is regarded as one of the main and regulatory elements of it. This isan applied-developmental study and employs quantitative approach and librarycollection tools and questionnaire (with content validity and Cronbach’ s alphaof. /82). The purpose of the study is to determine the place of scientific principlesof organizational architecture in security organizations, which indicates that inthese organizations, knowledge dimension as part of organizational architecturalpatterns is equal to the common frameworks of organizational architectureand consist of the components of elements and concepts, functions, requirements, products and direction makers. A common understanding in the field ofbases and concepts is more important than other components. The scientific dimensionof architecture requires optimal performance of cognitive, supervisoryand executive functions of security organizations and plays a role in providingthe security of security authorities.

There is no doubt about the necessity of creating security for the entire population and the totality of society by the ruling political system. The claim of Islam and the progressive school of Shiite Islam about having practical program for all periods and acts and human needs, also necessitates the implementation of studies for exploiting security concepts and methods of creation and protection of it, so that the framework and guidelines for Islamic societies can be achieved. Most of the researches on religious texts take place in the field of jurisprudence and other dimensions are of lesser interest. Among them, it can be said that security and intelligence dimension has the least research interest in the religious heritage. Nahj al-Balaghah was not an exception to this rule as the legacy of Islam and Shiism and so far the vast majority of researches have focused on the ethical orders of Amir al-Mu'minin Ali (PBUH). This study employs descriptive-analytical method and by focusing on the letter of 53 Nahj al-Balaghah addressed to Malik bin Ashtar Nakha'i as the governor of Egypt, attempts to focus on the pure heritage of Islam and Shiite on the one hand and the study of the only era that the imams have been at the top of the political administration to explains the security and protective dimensions and components that Imam Ali (PBUH) describes as the behavioral characteristics of an Islamic ruler to his governor. The study results show that among the six protective dimensions, three dimensions of personnel security, document security and security of places are more emphasized in this letter of Imam Ali (PBUH). In this regard, personnel security with the most frequent components is at the top of the commands of the Imam and in the two other aspects, the main attention of the Imam is on the human factor and this can be a reason for showing the human making nature of the school of Imams (PBUH).

In security research studies, conventional patterns of threat estimationfor the analysis and prediction of threats surrounding Islamic republic of Iranare ineffective, due to neglecting the function of religious values, consideringmaterial elements exclusively and the lack of consideration of spiritual anddivine factors. Hence, the main question of the study is that “ what are themost basic components explaining the intrinsic and inherent characteristicsof the Islamic republic of Iran, for the estimation of threats? ” . The semioticmethod was used to answer this question. The summary of this research isthat as values penetrate from the level of behavior and social actions to theinner layers of emotions and beliefs, the security coefficient increases andthe immunity forms against threats are formed and if the opposing signs ofvalues penetrate from the outer layer to the heart and belief layers, providedthat there are hostile intentions, geographic range, time sequence, socialbackground, and change in the threat wave from the social level to the securitylevel and weakness of management power, threat gets deeper andintensifies.

Terrorism is a fixed attribute on the horizon of the future of humanity and technologicaladvancements, thought, tactics and terrorism’ s weapons have led governmentsto make a vision in order to reduce the possible vulnerability factor andadopt an active and proactive position rather than passive and reactive positionon how to deal with terrorism. The purpose of this study is to study the terrorismand the security of the international system as a future problem, using the Delphimethod. For this purpose, participants in this article are 20 experts in the field ofterrorism and futures studies. Furthermore, Judgmental and snowball samplingmethod was used to select the experts and in the process of the Delphi implementationexperts reached consensus on 17 questions. The study results indicate thatthe continuation and escalation of terrorism in the next decade will be the mostlikely scenario and the stimulus of technological change, globalization, the worldpopulation rise and climate change are effective factors in the creation and spreadof terrorism. Threats from cyber and internet terrorism will increase in the nextdecade and terrorist groups will use unconventional weapons and suicide attacksthroughout the world to achieve their goals and terrorist groups in the future poseserious threats to military, economic, human, and environmental security. Theseresults indicate that three strategies; 1. integrated global approach to terrorism, 2. preventative strategy in the form of confronting with terrorism and destroyingroots and thinking principles and beliefs of it, 3. the strategy of suppression andtechnical and operational confronting with manifestations of terrorism could beeffective against these threats.

In this study, the comprehensive package of threats against the administrationsystem of the Islamic republic of Iran is analyzed by two perspectivesof threat effectiveness and threat importance. Enemies of this country havebeen designed and implemented different threats for many years with an all-out approach against this system and country. The effect based approachin the structure of the ways of addressing these threats requires that the differentforms of these threats be recognized and analyzed. For this purpose, the pattern of the seven-headed dragon of war, which has been developed toexplain the gradual change and transform pattern of war from the hard circuitto soft and semi-rigid circuits is employed. This study utilizes the exploratoryapproach to extract the threats and the data are extracted using the focusgroup research method. According to the results of this analysis, among thefields of military, political, economic, social, cultural, and ideological warfarebattlefields, the field of psychological warfare is the most efficient war battlefieldagainst the Islamic republic of Iran. In each battlefield of war, specific anddifferent threats are designed against the Islamic republic of Iran’ s system inwhich twelve main threats have been identified. Among the twelve threats ofoverthrowing the system, overthrow through the political war arena is the mostimportant threat that is known. This assessment shows that in the ideologicalbattlefield we have encountered a strategic neglect that the casualties of theIslamic republic of Iran in this field are very considerable.