JOURNAL OF ENERGY PLANNING AND POLICY RESEARCH
Year:2016 | Volume:2 | Issue:2 |Papers Count:8

The aim of this paper is to utilize a scenario-building method to create a framework for the future of the Iran’s energy industry and to examine the robust strategies for managing energy sector in Iran. The increasing growth rate of technology and consequently, the growth of energy consumption on one hand and sequence of highly uncertain changes on another hand reveals the necessity of novel foresight methods to deal with these challenges which energy sector management is encountered. This framework helps to develop more resilient conservation policies when faced with uncontrollable, irreducible uncertainty. This method is based on significant factors and critical uncertainties that potentially have an impact on the future of the energy industry. In this paper, a combination of the foresight methods such as Delphi, Environmental Scanning, PEST analysis, and Cross-Impact Analysis was used. Furthermore, MICMAC as a strategic foresight software program has been used for scenario-building. The semi-structured interviews regarding key factors of the energy industry are gathered and categorized into four main fields with using a PEST strategic analysis tool. Cross-impact analysis is performed via a questionnaire. Foreign investment in the energy industry, sanctions, the probability of war and terrorist attacks are identified as the three main factors and critical uncertainties of the Iranian energy industry. Using these critical uncertainties, and all the gathered information from experts, three scenarios were developed: Technology-driven, Stagnation, and Self-sufficiency. Finally, robust strategies for each scenario were determined by robust planning method.

The formulation of a fiscal policy framework in resource-rich countries with respect to other countries' experiences and local requirements is important in implementation of economic development programs. The evaluation of the effects of oil revenue and productivity shocks on macroeconomic variables is the main purpose of this study, which is addressed within the context of a DSGE model with features such as infrastructure development needs and public investment inefficiencies. Base on RBC model, Results shows that the oil revenue shock increases the consumption, the current and capital spending of the government and reduces the inflation in the short run, although because of the demand side, in medium term push, inflation increase. The results reveal that with an increase in oil revenue the National Development Fund and consequently, the financial resource for concessional facilities to the private sector will be raised. Furthermore, because of the structure of the economy that was largely unproductive and government activity in the economy lead to crowding out effect, the oil revenue investment has a little effect on the growth of the non-oil producing sector. Moreover, a productivity shock in the model has the results that are similar to theoretical expectations.

The purpose of this study is to measure and compare the social costs of carbon dioxide emissions by economic agents in various regions in Iran based on three different approaches during 1380 to 1391. These approaches include the use of indicators of World Bank and Environmental Protection Agency, investigating various environmental equipment to escape the harmful effects of carbon dioxide emissions and calculating willingness to pay to avoid the deleterious effects of carbon dioxide emissions of the that using the hedonic price pattern. Carbon dioxide emissions have been considered to represent Greenhouse Gases. The amount of carbon dioxide emissions has been calculated based on an indirect method in each province. Then, the associated social costs have been calculated by using three methods for further investigation. The result shows that the social cost per unit of carbon for Iran’s provinces is different and that it is necessary to use unbalanced pricing policies on emissions. In addition, in this study households' willingness to pay to avoid pollution was calculated in order to separate different regions.

In this research, Iran’s energy system is simulated with the aim of reducing the greenhouse gases (GHG) emissions. Key variables of the system are identified according to expert’s viewpoints, and their relationships are depicted through a “cause and effect” diagram. Then, the mathematical equations which denoting variables’ relations are written according to the literature as well as some methods such as regression. Eventually, different scenarios for allocation of energy resources to end-users, including residential and commercial, agriculture, transportation, industries and power plants are simulated and the one that resulted to reduce the GHG emission in long-term is selected for implementation. Designing a dynamic model of the energy system and its simulation helps decision-makers to investigate other managerial policies as well as their effects on increasing the productivity of the system in the future.

In this paper, driving forces for the renewable-energy sector have been ranked with using a hybrid approach. Identification of driving forces' importance is a crucial step in national foresight projects or strategic planning in energy management area. So, firstly, the review of the literature and the opinions of experts and fuzzy Delphi method are used to identify and classify of driving forces for renewable energy. Secondly, the classification of driving forces is examined with using the fuzzy DEMATEL method and their causal relationships. In the final stage, we used results from prior stage to rank driving forces with an analytical network process. The results show that the technology capability and political stability are the most important driving forces for renewable energy that can be used for creating scenarios and strategic planning.

Empirical studies show that the oil price volatility causes structural problems (such as commercial payment problems and budget problems) in Iran’s economy. Realizing the mechanism of oil price formation can decrease the risk of oil price volatility and its negative effects on Iran’s economy. The formation of oil price has been changing with the development of oil exchange and future markets so that in short time with the change in the interest rate, the liquidity flow between financial markets and oil market and the price of crude oil deviate from its long-time path. In this paper, we investigate the deviation of crude oil price from its long-term path with respect to relationships between these markets. For this purpose, as well as multivariate GARCH technique method Fisher price jump model and Frankel theory are applied to test this relationship with using daily time series of the crude oil during 2005-13 across different areas (different markets).

In this research, the DCC model is estimated to calculate dynamic correlation series between crude oil price and growth of Industry and Mine sector during 1367:1-1392:4. Then, Macroeconomic variables which can explain the dynamic correlation are analyzed as variables of contagion. So, the import, as an effective and affected variable from crude oil price, is separated to real import of consumption, capital and intermediate goods. We apply an MSIXH (2)-ARX (0,0) model to investigate the effects of explaining variables. Our results show that imports of intermediate goods have a positive effect and imports of consumption goods have a negative effect on correlation series. These results suggest that in order to increase Industry and Mine sector growth, increase in import of intermediate goods, reduction in government consumption expenditure and implementing policies to stabilize the general price level and government consumption expenditure against changes in oil prices are necessary.

Generation of electricity releases various types of pollutants, which cause damages to a wide range of receptors such as human health, natural ecosystems, crops, and building materials. When the cost of such damages is not accounted in the price of electricity, they are referred as external costs. The estimation of external cost has important usage in policy making. An external cost, also known as an externality, arises when the social or economic activities of one group of people have an impact on another group, and that impact is not fully accounted, or compensated for, by the first group. Thus, a power station that generates emissions of SO2, causing damage to building materials or human health, imposes an external cost. Because the generator of the electricity when deciding on the level of the activities does not take into account the impact of these activities on the buildings’ owners or on those who suffer health damage. In this example, the environmental costs are “external” because, although they are real costs to the members of the society, the owner of the power station is not taking them into account when making decisions. The economic value is a measure of the benefit provided by an action or service to an economic agent. It is generally measured relative to units of currency, and the interpretation is, therefore "what is the maximum amount of money that a specific actor is willing and able to pay for the good or service"? .In this paper, we calculated the economic value of power generation efficiency improvement. The results show the economic value of one percent increase in power generation efficiency is equal to 294 million dollars.