Journal of Economic Research and Policies
Year:2018 | Volume:26 | Issue:85|Papers Count:9

Innovations and deregulations in the banking sector have led to bank’ s operation tends to be more complicated and riskier than what it was in the past. This has created some challenges in supervision on banking performance. To overcome these challenges, the supervisors use new methods and instruments which CAMELS rating system is one of them. In this paper, by applying CAMELS, the supervisory rating system is designed for Iranian banking network. For this purpose, the banks’ financial statements are used for the period of 1385-1394. In addition to the supervisory rating for each bank, this paper addresses the most important factors that affect the rating. The results show that the CAMELS rating system can give an accurate and consistent bank rating that is respect to the bank's financial condition and performance. This can identify the risks and risky banks. So it can help to reduce effects of unexpected shocks and improve the resource allocation. According to the results, the central bank should offer some recommendations and tips to control and manage the risks of risky banks. Also, the central bank should decide about restructuring, merging or liquidate of risky banks.

Output and welfare are among the most important economic indicators used in the assessment of economic performance. One of the reasons is that these variables have broad interactions with other variables. For this purpose, a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model is designed for the Iranian economy. In this research, after design, linearize and calculating the model coefficient, the impulse response function is used to evaluate effects of consumption expenditures and government capital shock, as well as oil revenues and monetary impulse. The comparing the variables' moments with the realized data show the relative success of the model in the simulation of economic variables such as production data, inflation, and consumption. The results show that the positive shock on consumption expenditures and government investment increase the production and reduce the consumption in the Iranian economy. Also, this process is accompanied by a crowding out effect. An oil revenue's shock leads to increase inflation by increasing the liquidity variable. In other sides, its positive effect on production rapidly vanishes, and the production trend returns to its equilibrium value. However, inflationary effects of oil revenue shock disappear later. Meanwhile, the oil revenue's shock increases the consumption and investment of the private sector. In addition, regarding the effect of financial policies on welfare, the results show that Lagrange's coefficient is equal to 34 if the current policies are going on, and the coefficient is equal 1. 95 if the optimal policy is running. In other words, the adoption of optimal policies in government spending can increase economic welfare.

Poverty is one of the major problems of human society and efforts to reduce it has been always the most important objectives of government policy. In order to achieve this goal, inclusive growth has a critical role. However, income inequality also affects the pace which economic growth is translated into poverty reduction. The most important challenge for policymakers in creating pro-poor policies is linking micro and macroeconomic field. Lack of coordination between these both can prevent the impact of the pro-poor policies In this study, it has been tried by using information household budget to create coordination and Cointegration between macro analyses of economic growth, and the microanalyses of economic actor's behavior. So how economic growth reduces poverty is a key question that discussed in this study. In addition, the impact of changes in average income and income distribution on poverty is studied. To determine which economic sector has been had pro-poor growth, pro-poor growth indexes are calculated for the services, industry and agriculture sectors in urban and rural areas of Azerbaijan Gharbi, Isfahan, Tehran, Khorasan Razavi, Khuzestan, Sistan & Baluchestan, Fars, Kermanshah, Mazandaran and Markazi provinces during the period 2005-2014. Furthermore, using the results, Gini's coefficient has been investigated as an index of inequality. The research results indicate that economic growth is negative in the majority of cases that has increase poverty through income effect. But income distribution has improved and has led to poverty reduction. According to the balance of these two effects on poverty except for Sistan & Baluchistan where poverty has increased in all sectors, Urban service's sector in Tehran, the urban agricultural sector in Isfahan and rural service's sector in other provinces have had best situation in pro-poor. Compare Gini's coefficient with model results indicates that the Gini coefficient did not report inequality correctly.

The main objective of this study is to investigate the inequality in the distribution of per capita income among Iranian provinces using the spatial data analysis. To this end, per capita income data are collected for the period of 1997 to 2014 in two cases, including oil and excluding oil. Then, with using the Gini coefficient and Theil index, the amount of inequality in per capita income is calculated between the provinces of Iran. Moreover, Moran' I index, Moran scatter plot and LISA index is used to identify the spatial patterns in per capita income distribution among Iranian provinces. The results show that there is a high instability in the spatial pattern of per capita income distribution in Iran. Also, the inclusion of the oil sector in calculating per capita income affects on the conclusion and changes in inequality and the spatial pattern of inequality. The results also show that there is a spatial clustering phenomenon in per capita income of provinces in Iran. In addition, there is evidence of core-periphery patterns based on the distribution of per capita income in Iran.

In this study, with employing a combination of Index Decomposition Analysis and Production-Theoretical Decomposition Analysis approach, based on multiplicative approach analysis and period-wise and chain-link analysis, we evaluate the influential factors on energy intensity in the period 2006-2012. In this regards, we calculate the indexes of structural effect, activity effect, intensity effect, technological changes, changes in technical performance, and the substitution rate of the labor force and capital with energy for the Iranian economic sectors included industry, transportation, and agriculture. Furthermore, we consider these indices for consumption of the different type of energy like crude oil, petroleum products, natural gas, and electricity. The results of this study show that energy intensity in all three economic sectors increased during the period. Based on economic sector's data, substitution of the labor force with energy is the most important determinant of total change in energy intensity. However, if in addition to economic sector's data, we use energy consumption data, production effect is the most important factor. The substitution of the labor force with energy is the most important factor affecting the sectoral energy intensity. Changes in technical efficiency during this period show that total energy consumption decreased and has the lowest share in total consumption growth and energy intensity. Also, the results show that comparing based on chain-link analysis has more realistic and reliable results for policymakers.

Fiscal regime governing contracts is one of the main aspects of differences between petroleum contracts with each other. To design a suitable fiscal regime, economic considerations are on the top of priority. Comparing Buy-Back contracts with new Iran Petroleum Contract (IPC) shows that Buy-Back contracts have intrinsic problems such as being short term, having a disintegrated chain of production, faulty tax system and having cost based fiscal system. While IPC is long-term contracts with an integrated chain of production and the contractor has an incentive for cost saving (but with the same faulty tax system). On the other hand, comparing the net present value of contractor take shows that IPC could have been more desirable and cost-effective in Azadegan oil field than Buy-Back contracts.

In this study, to measure financial instability and assess the probability of a financial crisis, we make a composite index which is a weighted average of Non-Performing Loans ratio, and volatilities in the stock price index by using Iranian quarterly time series for the periods of 79q1 until 93q4. Then, in order to investigate the affecting factors on Iran’ s Financial Instability, a basic model is estimated which, the financial instability index is influenced by the gap of credit growth rate, output gap, the index of central bank credibility, inflation, and the growth rate of public sector debt in the banking system. The results indicate that an increase in the gap of credit growth reduces the Financial Instability. Furthermore, the output gap has a negative and significant effect on the index of Financial Instability. In addition, a higher credibility of the central bank in the commitment to the targeted inflation leads to increase in Financial Stability. As expected, an increase in inflation and public sector debt in the banking system raises the instability of the economy. moreover, to evaluate the robustness of the results, we add the square of the gap of growth rate credit to the model as an explanatory variable. The results indicate that growth rate credit has a non-linearity relationship with Financial Stability, which induces the existence of an optimal level of credit growth rate. So the excessive credits can increase vulnerability and economic instability.

World Bank uses the knowledge assessment methodology (KAM) to determine the readiness of countries to compete based on the knowledge-based economy measures by introducing the index of knowledge-based economics (KEI). This criterion consists of four pillars of economic incentives and institutional regime, education and human resources, innovation system and information and communication infrastructure, which is obtained by calculating their respective measures by calculating the World Bank's formula. The results of the sub-indices related to the four pillars of Knowledge-based Economy in Iran state that although Iran acquires a good position in innovation system and mediocre in Education and human resources and the communications and information infrastructure, sub-index for Economic incentives and institutional regimes have been in an unfavorable situation.

In this paper, we estimate the reaction function of foreign exchange intervention in Iran, during 1381q2-1393q4. According to the existence of a non-linear relationship between variables, we used smooth transition regression model. The results of this investigation indicate that the monetary authority intervention in Iran is a function of the nominal exchange rate growth and its misalignment, the lag of central bank's foreign reserves growth and the growth of government oil revenues. According to the tests, the exchange rate growth is an appropriate transition variable in the estimation with the threshold of 10. 31 present. Around this amount, the coefficients follow two different regime structures. The results also reflect the fact that monetary authorities in Iran have shown a greater response to the exchange rate growth after crossing the threshold.