Journal of Economic Research and Policies
Year:2019 | Volume:27 | Issue:89|Papers Count:13

In this study, through the elasticity approach, we tried to evaluate the effects of cash subsidy on poverty reduction. In this regard, after the theoretical arguments about the poverty elasticity to income, Gini Coefficient, and price using the data related to the expenses and incomes of the 14701 urban households from 1389 to 1390, the quantitative value of these elasticity was measured and finally, the effect of paying the cash subsidy on the poverty was calculated based on summing the income effect, inequality and price. In this study, to measure poverty and the income distribution, foster Greer torbecka and Gini coefficient were used. The results of the study showed that the income elasticity of poverty is-1. 25, the inequality elasticity of poverty is and the price elasticity of poverty is 1. 25 The findings of the study suggest that unexpectedly, after the subsidies targetization plan, the poverty not only did not decrease but also experienced an 8% increase from 1389 t0 1390.

Current situation of Iran Economy which is under increasing sanction can be affected negatively and followed by many consequences for the society through any misleading economic decision from government side. The Iranian tax system includes various types of taxes that are directly and indirectly collected, each of them have its own effects on society and market system. Determining the way of collecting and the appropriate tax rate are items that the government must deal with them professionally based on studies and experiences; otherwise, there will be increasing inequalities or producers' indifference. In this research, using the input-output analysis and applying the COICOP and ISIC standards, the effects of income tax on legal entities (companies) on the costs of different levels in urban and rural households have been investigated. For this purpose, the input-output data table of 2010 and the income tax data for urban and rural households in 2016 are applied. The results indicate that any reduction or increase in taxes on legal entities (companies) will be passed directly to the consumer due to its reflection in the products price; so the tax impact will be in other ways. Meanwhile, the costs for low-income groups will increase by tax rise, which will result in social inequality and dissatisfaction in society.

In recent years, the banking crisis has increased the attention of researchers toward the banking system reform and solutions to it. The banking crisis can be accompanied by a banking run, banking panic, a rise in the Non-performing loan in banking system, fluctuations in cash and non-cash assets, and so on. On the other hand, the central bank's monetary policy has also played an important role in the emergence of banking crisis by using direct and indirect tools as well as the free access of banks to credit lines and overdrafts from the central bank. In this study, firstly, bank crises in the Iranian economy were identified in the framework of the adjusted index of money market pressure during the period 1973 to 2016 using seasonal data and then the probability of a banking crisis was investigated using the Markov model. The experimental results of this research show that Iran's economy experienced banking crisis in some periods, including early 1979, late-1990, between 1994 and 1996, as well as between 2013 and 2015. Statistical analysis showed that the Central Bank's expansionary monetary policy has played an important role in the emergence of banking crisis and liquidity movements towards immature activities. Hence, moving towards alternative monetary instruments such as the Islamic debt market or the interbank market can play an important role in the effective transfer of liquidity to productive sectors and reduce the government's dominance over the banking system.

The performance of banking system in attracting deposits, loan payment and inside money creation may cause the economy facing with potential challenges. Misallocation of resources in banking system and intensifying stagflation, monetary disequilibrium and transmitting its outcomes to real sector, the problems due to differences in maturity date and deviation in allocation of banking credits to productive sectors are items that can be seen in bank-based Iran economy. This paper is investigating system dynamics effects of inside money creation on inflation in Iran economy. During 1973-2014 liquidity has been 15100 times more but real GDP has been just 2 times. In this regard there are some important questions. Why liquidity has raised so much in Iran economy? What is the relationship between this increase in liquidity and inflation in Iran economy? To what extent has the conventional banking system played in causing inflation and liquidity growth? Specifically, this article will study these questions by analyzing data of Iran economy, based on system dynamics approach. Results from creating different scenarios show that increase in required reserve ratio for short term deposits up to 100%, ceasing bank’ s lending power from these deposits, increase in required reserve ratio for long term deposits and determining an equilibrium rate by central bank can decrease the power of money creation through banks. This policy will stabilize money supply, price levels and production costs in long run.

Examination of the environmental pollution and the factors influencing it by considering the specific characteristics of each country for acheivment to growth and sustainable development and reduse of emission is very important. this study, investigate the effect of productivity and institutional quality on the quality of the environment by using the panel data analysis for 16 developing countries including IRAN during the period of 1998-2016. The results of the estimations indicate that there is a third degree relationship between per capita income and environmental degradation. The results also reveal that in developing countries, the effect of productivity growth and institutional quality (political rights and civil liberties) on environmental quality are negative, as with productivity increase due to rebound effect of it and also with increase of political rights and civil liberties as a result of ignoring of environment by stakeholders and exploitation of resources in these countries, pollutant emissions will increase.

This study investigates the relationship between factor income distribution and aggregate demand in the context of the Post-Keynesian school, using data from Iran over the period 1346-1393. To this end, profit share and GDP growth are used as proxies for factor income distribution and demand growth, respectively. The results of the cointegration analysis based on the ARDL approach show that profit share and economic growth have a positive and significant effect on each other in the long-run. Furthermore, the results based on the error correction model show that, in the long-run, there is a bidirectional Granger causality between profit share and economic growth. However, in the short-run, Granger causality runs only from profit share to economic growth. The most important consequence of such results is that there is a profit-led demand (growth) regime for Iran in both the short-run and the long-run. Based on this result, the use of capital-intensive technologies instead of labor-intensive technologies increases the share of profits and thus leads to an increase in demand and economic growth. The implication of this finding is that the government should pursue policies to encourage and facilitate firms to adopt capital-intensive technologies, aimed at increasing the income of society as a whole. On the other hand, the government should also adopt effective policies to improve income distribution, increasing welfare.

In this paper, we want to determine what percentage of Iranian households doesn’ t act according to the Permanent Income Hypothesis (PIH), the so called hand-to-mouth consumers are, that consume 100% of their current income. For this mean, we have used three models. In the first model, we applied Constant Relative Risk Aversion (CRRA) preferences. In the second, preferences includes the habits of consumption, and in the third, it is imported Kerps-Portz preferences into the household utility function. After estimating the Euler equations with GMM, the percentage of hand-to-mouth consumers in each of models were obtained 0. 37, 0. 52 and 0. 45, respectively. So in average, during 1361 to 1395 period, about %45 of Iranian households have consumed all of their current income and they are hand-to-mouth consumers and they don’ t have any inter-period plan for self consumption. On the other, approximately 55% of households, by maintaining and investing in various types of assets, adjust their consumption plan based on their permanent income. Culturalization can be effective in reducing the percentage of hand-to-mouth households and having an inter-period program for consumption to manage and direct the households' capital to the capital market for the purchase of various types of assets.

This paper presents a model for assessing the efficiency of e-commerce in the provinces of IRAN with data envelopment analysis (DEA). For this purpose, first, we assess the factors that affect to growth and use of e-commerce in Iran, then to show the efficiency of IRAN's provinces on e-commerce, data analysis model applied. Results show the average efficiency in IRAN in year 2016 compared to year 2013 increased. The numbers of efficiency in years 2014, 2015 and 2016 have a normal distribution, and only in 2013 we have outliers. Also MALMQUIST efficiency coefficient calculation results show we have progress in years 2015 and 2014 compared to 2014 and 2013. The most progress is in year 2014 that related to Isfahan province and in year 2015 related to Charmahalobakhtyari province. Ultimately the efficiency coefficient of MALMQUIST results 8 provinces in year 2016 have progress compared to year 2015 and 22 provinces during the same time period have regressed. The greatest progress in year 2016 is relating to Khuzestan provinces and most regression is relating to North Khorasan Province.

the present study was to investigate the impact of ownership type on the performance of Iranian banks. To this end, the performance of the given banks was measured by three indices including return on equity, return on assets, and cost-to-operating income ratio. The bank assets, loan-to-deposit ratio, liquidity ratio, leverage ratio, operating profit margin ratio, and debt-to-asset ratio were also included in the model as control variables. Moreover, three dummy variables were defined to investigate ownership effect, privatization effect, as well as the effect of getting listed on the stock exchange. The time period of the study was between 2004 and 2015. Besides, the study covered 17 banks including 7 private banks, 6 state-owned banks, and 4 privatized banks. In general, the results of the generalized estimating equation of the population-averaged model in the Stata 14. 2 software indicated that private banks had yielded better performance indices compared with state-owned ones, but privatization of state-owned, had not brought about an improvement as well as increased efficiency in these banks.

One of the concerns of some Islamic finance specialists is the Sariah compliance of banking services. This is a greater concern about participation contracts which are more complicated especially in terms of profit sharing. Several Islamic finance researchers have suggested solutions to it. The main objective of this paper is to investigate the feasibility and the effect of applying these solutions. In fact, we are looking for the answer to this question, which one is the most appropriate solution considering the environmental conditions and operational capability of the banking system of the country. For this purpose, we have used the Structure-Conduct-Performance Paradigm (SCP). The result of this research shows that the use of incentive mechanisms in the participation contracts among the different suggested solutions is more consistent with existing restrictions.

The purpose of this paper is to identify the factors influencing the industrial production of apparel industry in Iran and also to recognize the cause of its decline by using of systemic approach during1995-2015. For attaining this aim we have used some tools of system dynamics: , so in this paper have been addressed three steps (Problem definition, Model structure and Policy design) with respect to the scope of study. Due to the subject literature and the interviews done with industrial experts, 15 major challenges of industry were identified, key variables and cause-effect relationships were extracted, and simulated by dividing into seven main parts of the system structure. By recognizing the system, the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade’ s strategic planning for developing industrial apparel production have been checked with the presented structure in respect of comprehensible and proficiency and have been introduced the ignored mechanisms. In the Strategic Plan of the Ministry of Industry, Mine and Trade, the lack of attention to the stimulus rings on the demand side of the market, the lack of attention to the effective loops of the existing vacancies of the existing industrial producers and the lack of consideration of the mechanism of influence of the tariffs in the industry, including the shortcomings of this strategic plan was identified.

Financial stability is amongst the issues that have been increasingly considered over the past two decades. Today, money and capital markets play a substantial role in the development of societies, but at the same time, this development will be problematic if it is not accompanied by a program, control, and supervision. The main reason is that, due to the correlation between the real and financial sectors of the economy, macroeconomic shocks can broadly spread to the financial system or spillover from the financial sector to other macroeconomic sectors. The key purpose of this article is to answer two questions. First, whether exchange rate shocks affect Mutual Fund return, while they typically use diversification policies to reduce market risks, second, how much is contagion between different mutual funds, In other words, how much systemic risk Index affects from rate change shocks. we examine the correlation structure of daily net return of the mutual fund portfolios during the period from March 21st, 2011 to December 22nd, 2015, Applying the multivariate GARCH model. The results indicate that coefficients of exchange rate change shocks are significant just only some of the Mutual Funds, while contagion between mutual funds causes direct effects of shocks to Spread among Mutual Funds and increase systemic risk Index among Mutual Funds, and also a potential systemic risk.

In this study, in order to assess and evaluate the role of the budget in the regional disparity of the country, the absolute beta and beta convergence of per capita income of the provinces of the country with the presence of allocation of government funds to the provinces variable's during the period from 1389 to 1393, with using panel spatial econometrics method. Based on the results, the slope of the absolute beta regression line is negative, small and statistically meaningless, therefore, the absolute beta assumption of per capita income in the provinces is rejected. The results show that the trend of standard deviation of real per capita income of Iranian provinces with increasing volatility during the research period is indicative of divergence of sigma. The results of the calculations show that the spatial dependency of per capita production and spillover effects in the provinces of the country are accepted. However, the beta conditional convergence in the spatial regression model with the presence of the total government budget allocations is not accepted. The results show that the total allocation of funds leads to a divergence and increased income gap between the provinces.