JOURNAL OF THE FACULTY OF HUMANITIES AND SOCIAL SCIENCES
Year:2006 | Volume:6 | Issue:22|Papers Count:6

Iran as a developing country possesses rich and extensive energy resources, an advantage in energy-intensive industries. In different economic thoughts, the more important factors that influence economic growth include labor and capital. In this research, we investigate the Granger-Causality relationship between marginal energy consumption in residential and commercial sectors (as marginal demand of energy), in industry, transportation and agriculture sectors (as intermediate demand for energy) and Iranian economic growth in (1967-2004), using standard Granger-Causality test, Auto Regressive with Distributed Lags and error correction models. The results of standard Granger-causality test reveal that there is unidirectional Granger Causality from marginal demand of energy to economic growth, and a bidirectional between intermediate demand of energy and economic growth. Estimation of error correction models reveals that in the short run and long run, there is bidirectional Granger-Causality between marginal demand of energy and economic growth as well as between intermediate demand of energy and economic growth.

Because of the restrictive assumptions contained in the traditional equity valuation models, this paper uses Fairfield Residual Income Model for equity valuation. This model is an adjusted state of the dividend discount model (DDM) that doesn't assumes a fixed relation between accounting data and future dividend, and restriction on payout policy. Book value and earnings play major roles in this model. It starts with book value (net assets) and for reflection of the expected profitability of those assets, adjusts it upward or downward. The price/earnings ratio (P/E) is a function of expected changes in future profitability, and the price/book ratio (P/B) is a function of the expected level of future profitability.Based on model prediction and earned results from this investigation, P/B correlates positively with future return on book value, and P/E correlates positively with growth in earnings. Findings show that different P/E – P/B combinations are associated with distinct patterns of future profitability.

The study aims at determining whether the tools and techniques of technical analysis are applicable to the Tehran Stock Exchange. The technical analysis goes against the fulfillment of the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis. In this research we have assessed one simple form of technical analysis named by Dual Simple Moving Average rule. To that end, we have used daily data for prices of the 35 firms of the Tehran Stock Exchange, covering the one-year period from 21 March 2004 to 20 March 2005. In the present investigation, the continuation of the past prices is confirmed and so the weak form of the Efficient Market Hypothesis is refused. Also our findings indicate that in the one year periods, returns mean obtained from studying DSMA both with and without considering transactions costs is equal to that achieved from the buy and hold strategy.

Poverty is a multidimensional phenomenon. Scientists have studied its different aspects. Governments and global societies have considered taking steps to remove or reduce the poverty in the life of the dispossessed. Poverty line is a basic factor for designing the poverty indexes. Effective factors in standard of living such as education, health, and social security are studied in the period of 1363-1384, in this research. The poverty line was estimated through dynamic linear expenditures system by ISUR approach, and then poverty indexes were calculated. The results indicate that 48% of the province population is under poverty line, and for filling this gap the government ought to pay 44% of poverty line to every person. The trend of the headcount and poverty gap indexes was decreasing in the period.

The main purpose of this paper is to estimate the effects of oil price fluctuation on macroeconomic performance in the Iranian economy. To do so, the cointegration approach along with response function and variance decomposition techniques are used.The results show that one of the main source of fluctuation in macroeconomic variables is the oil price shocks. 20 percent of GDP, 30 percent of unemployment rate and 60 percent of CPI fluctuation stem from oil price shocks. This finding also indicates that oil price shocks which affect the stability of economic activities in Iran result in a departure ofactual rate of mentioned variables from their equilibrium level in the long run.

Development based on knowledge is in fact a change of perspective and thinking about development. The most important feature of economy based knowledge is the ability to earn income from knowledge-oriented economics. Countries which fix the way of their earning accordingly will certainly gain economic faster growth and higher economic capacities. In this paper we pay close attention to the indexes of knowledge production and the development of wisdom. We also consider some related indexes of this issue. Finally, we examine the influence of related variables on the variables of economic growth in Iran as index of economic performance.By applying the econometric method of ARDL, a long run and a short run model was estimated. The results show that budget and credits allocated to the research sector in the country have significant effect on the growth of internal gross product (without oil) in the period investigated.