NAMEH-YE-MOFID
Year:2006 | Volume:12 | Issue:1 (54 ECONOMICS)|Papers Count:10

The relationship between productivity, output growth and export expansion has been a great attention in contemporary trade and development policy literature. Since productivity is a potentially relevant determinant of comparative advantage in the medium and long terms, several hypotheses have been put forward to explain possible links between sectoral differences in productivity and trade performance, particularly in developing countries. In this study, the link between output growth, total factor productivity (TFP) change and trade performance-export expansion and import substitution-will be investigated for four selective provinces of Iran. These provinces are the most important provinces in industrial sector. The main aim of this research is to determine the groups of industrial activities which the productivity growth of their production factors has significantly been affected by export variable for each of four selective provinces. Thus, those groups of industrial activities are the most important and prior groups in the strategy of export expansion.This research is organizedas follows: after introduction, in section 2, we reviewed the research methodology. Section 3 provided an overview of the theoretical literature and distinguishes the relationship between productivity, output growth and export expansion. Section 4 presents and discusses the empirical findings; section 5 Analyzed extensions and Section 6 Concludes. This research shows that growth productivity on foods, basic metals, and Chemicals industries in Tehran province and growth of foods, basic metals, and Chemicals industries in Esfahan province and growth of food, Basic metals, and others industries in East Azerbaijan province strongly dependent to export promotion. Therefore, we can improve the productivity of those industries by supportive policies, investment in export and marketing. On the whole, the industries which have been affected by promotion and expansion of export are: Paper printing industry, Chemicals industries, basic metals industries, and food industries.

India is a large country with hard working people. Analysis of Economic reforms in such country is full of experiences. This paper attempts to investigate the impacts of economic reform on investment and some other variables in Indian society. We, by using official data and relevant models, have organized some kinds of empirical research, which shows the successes of that reforms program in Indian economy. This success is mainly due to existing consistent residual factors in India along with the appropriate use of adjustment policies.

The most important issue for active investors in capital market is forecasting the stock's price. The main goal of this research is to study the application of stock's price anticipation by using indicators of technical analysis based on neural networks and the comparison of this method and neural networks which uses stock's price and ARIMA models. In this research stock's price of the next 10 days of 40 active companies will be anticipated in Tehran stock exchange by using three different methods. In the first method, the stock's price will be forecasted by applying SINGLE LAYER FEED FORWARD NEURAL NETWORKS. Using Levenberg-Marquardt learning algorithm and the performance criteria of MSE with admission of market value.In the next step, beside the entry of market value, 5, 10 and 20 days of moving average and 12 days of RSI and also ROC were introduced as new entries to the network and forecasting was accomplished. The Stock's prices were also anticipated for all companies using ARIMA models. By applying analysis of variance, three different anticipating models were compared. Since price anticipation for thirty companies by ARIMA models have presented better and more meaningful results rather than neural networks model. Therefore, we can claim that the linear models of ARIMA are more capable of explaining and analyzing the complexities of time series of stock's price than the nonlinear models of neural networks. Therefore, they are recommended to be used for anticipation of stock's price.

During the last few decades the Iran's economy has frequently faced different monetary shocks. Although during this period monetary discipline has been one of macroeconomic policies of policymakers but based on government budget deficits it was inevitable.Monetary expansion has considerable effects on real and nominal sectors of economy. To capture these effects, in this paper we are going to assess the effect of (positive) monetary shocks on trade performance (which was defined as export-import ratio) and nominal exchange rate as real and nominal variables. To do this, we used short and long run models through quarterly data for 20 years.The results imply that an expansionary monetary shock causes exchange rate to overshoots and improves trade performance after a short time of deterioration. The results strongly recommend the government a fiscal discipline in its annual budget.

Poverty is a cause of distress, confusion and sorrow for human being. Hence human societies as well as international institutions have committed themselves to reduce it to half by 2015, a major concern of those involved in the process being how to finance poverty eradicating plans. On the other hand, paying Zakat is considered both worship and a religious fiscal obligation whose principal goal is to meet the needs of the needy and the society in general. As far as Golestan province is concerned, it is one of the five outstanding wheat producing provinces in Iran. The religious beliefs of Shiite and Sunni Moslems in Golestan province and the state of poverty provide incentives for studying the capacity of Zakat for eliminating poverty in this province.In the present study, the amount of Zakat on two crops of wheat and barley has been estimated on the basis of the information available concerning the amount of wheat and barley produced in the province. The budget needed for such plans as a mean of poverty elimination, renovation of rural areas and education were also estimated. The findings of the study reveal that if collected accordingly, the amount of attainable Zakat can finance the government's plans on these matters to a considerable degree.

The investment is one of the key factors on economic development in every society, but the investors' need the criteria for evaluation of companies. The traditional criteria such as EPS, rate of profit, rate of return, cost of capital, and the other criteria's that only based on present value of stock holders future income can not be used as a credible criteria for evaluation of the performance.One of the criteria which can be helpful in the investors' decision making is (E.V.A). E.V.A is a value which has been created by operational activities and applies for evaluation of companies performance and the managers' motivation plans. This research has paid attention to the survey of E.V.A during 2002-2003 in (N.I.C.I.Co).The results show that E.V.A in 2003 decreased 47 percent relative to 2002, because of the low rate of return on assets. Low investment rate and the decline of copper price which caused 65 percent decline in profit earned by stockholders.

Recognizing the importance of women's labour force and their high capacity for employment, the present paper deals with estimation of labour supply of women in Khuzestan. This study is based upon existing data about female participation rates, educational level, wage rates and unemployment rates. To estimate the women's labour supply and the related error correction model, the Johansen cointegraion method and annual data from 1966 to 2003 has been used. The findings of the study show that educational level and all its lags decrease the female teenage participation rates significantly. In this age group, when unemployment rates rise, women's labour supply rise too. For women at age 20 and more, the ratio of those holding university degree has positive effect on women's participation rates; and an increase in income per-capita encourages women to tend to work out of home.

The real exchange rate is the key relative price in international finance. Thus it is not surprising that so much attention has been given to the determinants of this variable both in the short and long run. This research investigates the long run relationship between the real exchange rate, sectoral productivity rates, and demand shocks in Iran during the 1966-1999.Some economists, such as Menzie Chinn and Johanson (1997) and Jahanara (2000), about effects of sectoral productivity and demand shocks on real exchange rate in OECD countries and 7th group show that there is a long run relationship between these variables and real exchange rate. Models of this research have estimated the relationship between real exchange rate, sectoral productivity in traded and non traded sectors, and demand shocks using cointegration techniques of Johansen in period of 1966-1999.Results show that there is a negative relationship between real exchange and sectoral productivity, that's, increase in productivity decreases the real exchange rate. On the basis of the empirical result it is recommended that government should encourage the investment and formation of capital which will improve the productivity rates and appreciation of the currency.