JOURNAL OF ECONOMIC MODELING RESEARCH
Year:2020 | Volume:10 | Issue:40|Papers Count:6

This study investigates the relation between bounced checks and economic growth through the banking credit risk channel by estimation of a simultaneous equation system with panel data for 31 Iranian provinces covers the years from 2011 to 2015. For this purpose, after identifying determinants of the bounced checks, the relations of this variable with the non-performing loans, banking loans and economic growth are evaluated. The results confirm the positive relationship between the bounced checks to GDP ratio and the prices index, whereas the impacts of output deviation from trend and the index of enforcement of laws on the bounced checks are negative. In times of stagflation, with the decreasing possibility of defaults, the bounced checks tend to grow. Also, with the development of legal and judicial system in the country with a view to boosting institutional and governance quality, the number of bounced checks decreases on the scale of economic activities. On the other hand, the number of bounced checks after fixing the control variables will lead to an increase of non-performing loans and the bank credit risk. Meanwhile the impact of bank loans on economic growth through the productivity channel is meaningful and positive. Therefore, in the Iranian economy the increase of bounced checks through the channel of bank loaning power will have a negative influence on economic growth.

In financial markets, the symmetry of information and the homogeneous interpretation of information among traders is one of the main conditions for market efficiency, but these conditions are in fact violated. In this paper first; we accurately estimated the dynamic measures of trades stemming from information asymmetry and diverse opinions among investors indices by a hidden Markov model. Thereafter, we consider an event window of 21 days to investigate impact of information disclosure on that indices. For this purpose, we estimated the daily measures of probability of informed trading (PIN) and symmetric-order flow shock (PSOS) 32 Tehran Stock Exchange (TSE) stocks belonging to 11 industries of TSE during the period from 2015 to 2018. PIN is an indicator of asymmetric information risk and PSOS indicating diverse opinions among investors whose variations and intensity play an important role in price formation and stock liquidity. These results show that in most stocks that have higher market value experience less risks of asymmetric information and diverse opinions shocks than other stocks. Entirely, it appears that the average and the maximum of information risk and diverse opinions shocks at TSE are higher than in developed markets. Also, information disclosure decreases PIN for three days and increases PSOS for 10 days, significantly, but its impact on PIN is weaker than PSOS. Actually, in TSE, information advantage of some informed traders are independent of announcements as well as announcements causes opinion diversities to rise and stand up. Keywords: Informed Trading,

Due to pension fund problems in Iran, the multi-pillar social insurance system has been released in 2017. According to this, the first pillar is regarding to low income groups and finance through the public fund. The second pillar is defined benefit and finance pay as you go. The third pillar is defined contribution and fully funded finance. Contributions are transferred to the individual account. The pension fund directors supposed to investments the accounts and to return the Contribution fund and its returns in retirement time. The main issue is that the old age pensions are not guaranteed in this plan and face with financial risk and inflation. Due to high inflation of Iran’ s economy, the main challenge of third pillar plan is the inflation. This paper is main to inflation hedging in defined contribution pension plan by Investing in Tehran Stock-Exchange. By using NARDL model and 133 monthly data up to 2020 the results show that TSE index can hedge the inflation.

Money Laundering (ML) reduces the confidence of investors to the financial market, worsen political instability and deviates resources allocation to unproductive sectors by weakening of financial institutions credit. In the ML, illegal resources are entered into the legal economy secretly and outside formal control whereby it has hidden nature. The aim of this paper is to study the different sizes ML and its changes in Iranian economy in the context of latent variables literature using Partial Least Squares Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) over the period 1360 to 1396. According to the results from paper firstly, drug trafficking and theft crimes have a positive and significant effect on ML trend. Besides that, economic conditions influence an individual’ s motivation to enter illegal activities. Secondly, ML growth is associated with decreasing economic growth and increasing the volume of cash that waste economic stability. Thirdly, ML has an upward trend which based on it can be anticipated that in spite of crimes growth, especially drug trafficking, the increasing trend of ML will continue.

The corona virus has turned a health crisis into an economic crisis and its spread has led to strong negative reactions from stock markets in various countries and price fluctuations in many macroeconomic variables. On the other hand, the spread of the virus provides a basis for examining the effects of its prevalence on stock markets, economic variables and the power of influence and the speed of information dissemination in times of crisis in these markets. The aim of the present study was to investigate the effect of corona virus on the stock markets of 75 countries and the variables of oil, gold, silver and copper by comparing complex networks before and after the outbreak of the virus. Also, for the calculation section, matlab statistical software has been used and for drawing the networks, the maximum filtered flat graph method has been used with the help of daily data in the period from June 2019 to March 2020. the results show that before the outbreak of coronavirus, stock markets tended to move in small continental groups, but the outbreak of the virus led to negative group movements with high correlation for these markets, positive or negative information spreads 32% faster than before on the stock market network, also stock markets are twice as influential as they were before the outbreak. The corona virus has directly led to a 40% drop in stock markets. on the other hand, the virus has caused fluctuations in the global variables of oil, gold, silver and copper, which each respectively affected 55%, 32%, 28% and 35% of stock markets, the impact of these variables before the outbreak of the virus was 31%, 20%, 16% and 18% of stock markets, respectively. it is important to note that in crises due to the collective movements of stock markets, price stability in central stock markets and macroeconomic variables are very important to control and reduce the negative effects of the crisis on stock markets.

The relationship between external debt and economic growth is one of the important issues in macroeconomics literature and has been considered in empirical studies. So, in this paper the long-run relationship among external government debt and economic growth in 58 selected developing countries for 1985-2018 by applying a pool mean group method which is suggested by Pesaran & Smith. The main empirical results showed that there is a long-run relationship between external debt and economic growth. Also, increase in growth in selected countries in addition to the influence of produce factors, labor, capital stock and monetary policy, influence of public debt. Also, capital stock, open economic, financial balance and saving variables has positive effect and population growth and Government revenue has negative effect on economic growth.