DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY
Year:2018 | Volume:3 | Issue:10|Papers Count:6

This paper focuses on modeling the behavior of commanders in a combat simulation. A military mission is often associated with multiple conflicting goals, including task success, completion time, enemies’ elimination, and own forces survival. In this paper, considering defensive and non-defensive scenarios, and using multi-objective optimization, a model is presented in order to minimize own forces loss and to maximize enemies’ elimination. Also, based on the weighting method and the Karush-Kuhn-Tucker optimality conditions, a continuous time feedback neural network model is designed for solving the proposed multi-objective optimization problem. The main idea of the neural network approach for the proposed multi-objective optimization problem is to establish a dynamic system in the form of first order ordinary differential equations. The proposed neural network does not require any adjustable parameter and its structure enables a simple hardware implementation. The proposed method can act as a consultant for the commander who decides for its forces. Finally, the validity and efficiency of the proposed model are demonstrated by an example.

Changes in the regional order system have led to an intensification of the Saudi opposition to Iran's approach to the extent that the possibility of Saudi Arabia's military encounter with Iran, taking into account the likely states of this type of encounter, has been more than analysts contemptuous. Based on this, this paper attempts to answer the main question by using Schwartz scenario-scanning method and using the descriptive method to answer the main question: what are the likely scenarios about Saudi military confrontation with Iran and what factors affect the formation of these scenarios. The paper's hypothesis is based on the fact that three types of direct confrontation, proxy and sectarian warfare inside can be pursued by Saudi Arabia. The study of the factors, drivers, and their significance and certainty in the context of the scenario scenario showed that the future of the Yemeni war and the resilience of Iran to the economic pressures of the United States and its allies have been effective in determining the Saudi approach to military confrontation with the country and could serve as a basis for its future military conduct. The data of this paper have been collected from library sources as well as from expert opinions.

In the era of change, uncertainty and instability, continuous improvement of Iran’ s defense power is necessary and needs continuous attempt for future architecture. Although this attempt is full of risks, but the acceptance of this risk is better than only seeing the future changes. ICT megatrends are a most important effective area on defense industry future. On the other hand, after announcing the macro policies of defensive and safety policies. Analyzing and formulating the future scenarios is attainable. This research is to identifying the ICT megatrends that are important for defense industry foresight to achieving Islamic-Persian model of development. This research uses a mixed method. Result showed that for defense industry foresight, ICT megatrends included information security management, social networks, communication infrastructures, innovation networks on IT context, artificial intelligence, internet of things and data centers and data bases should be considered.

Writings always seek security and deterrence in their strategic and economic areas, and the basic goal is to achieve the highest level of security in these areas. The North Indian Ocean is one of the few areas of the world that has always witnessed the presence of foreign powers because of its fossil resources, geopolitical and strategic location. The purpose of this study was to investigate the security threats of the North Indian Ocean on the future of maritime trade in the Islamic Republic of Iran and to collect data through library and field studies. The Field Studies section also uses Delphi technique and a questionnaire. This is an applied and descriptive-analytical method. Data were analyzed using mixed methods, statistical tests of variance analysis, correlation coefficient and regression. The results of the Delphi panel of 28 cases were identified as the security threats of the North Indian Ocean, based on the analysis of questionnaires by statistical tests, the degree of importance and the power of the impact of each of these threats on the security and future of the Islamic Republic of Iran's maritime trade.

It is impossible to deal with cyber threats in order to eliminate them completely. Therefore, the main objective of this research is to explore the scientific community's understanding of the current state of the cyberspace and provide a model for improving the security of the space. The purpose of this research is of the type of developmental research. In terms of approach, it is a kind of qualitative research of the future research that was identified by environmental monitoring of information related to the subject and combined with the further method of the findings, and eventually Using the grounded theory, the output theory is presented in the framework of the model. The main source for collecting data from this research is the available documents (books, previous studies, and related materials in related meetings and conferences). In order to evaluate the validity and reliability of the model, the focus groups and Kappa index were used. The results of the research indicate that because of the great impact and ease and simplicity of the application and variety of tools and methods, the cyber threat is decisive and should be addressed through cultural development, infrastructure development, non-cyber defense, technical measures and physical security, and The management arrangements will provide a genuine change in cyberspace to achieve cybercrime independence.

Contemporary threats significantly differ from traditional ones. It is no longer enough to rely on traditional “ analytical-estimation” theories and models for the assessment of new threats. Proportional to the transformations which took place in the nature, dimensions, and methods of the operationalization of threats it is necessary to design and offer more advanced analytical frameworks and assessment models in the area of threats. The present research is one of the first attempts to respond to this need. In this research, “ futures studies" were performed in the field of defense-security and issues related to “ threat identification” which resulted in the presentation of a model titled “ threat dissection analysis” . This method performs a quantitative and qualitative assessment of the intensity of smart threats via Raymond Quivy – Luc Van Campenhoudt’ s indexing method in form of three dimensions (hard, semi-hard and soft) four factors (approaching, behavioral, structural and implemental), eight major indices (type of threat, size of threat, extent of threat, time of threat, depth of threat, repetition of threat, domain of threat and location of threat), 24 basic indices and 120 relative sub-indices. This study employed a normative approach with a mixed methods research design. The tools utilized to collect explicit knowledge included documentary research and web mining. The tools used to collect implicit knowledge were distributed questionnaires. To verify and validate the data, interviews, expert opinion, and validity (credibility) and reliability (confidence) assessment of the questionnaires were employed to make sure that the questionnaire’ s questions match the research objectives and ensure its repeatability.