DEFENSIVE FUTURE STUDY
Year:2018 | Volume:3 | Issue:8|Papers Count:6

Since the outbreak of the Islamic Revolution and the fundamental changes in Iran's foreign policy, the differences between the Islamic Republic and the United States have started in various dimensions, and in recent years, with new challenges added. The threats of the United States, with regard to the country's ruling attitude and regional conditions, include a variety of dimensions that have been tried and tested in all its dimensions with a futuristic approach. For this purpose, trend analysis has been used as one of the main methods of futures research. This research is applied in the applied research group and in terms of its method in the case study group. In addition, in the method of analysis, the qualitative approach and background analysis have been used. In order to achieve the research objectives, the present study deals with the descriptive analysis of USA threats against Islamic Republic of Iran in strategic documents published (between 2005 and 2017), As well as categorizing threats and reviewing their content. In the second part of the research, while analyzing the process of extracted threat strategies, the future trends of threats in the dimensions of regional, political, economic, security, social and thought, cyber and cultural have been discussed.

According to the orders of the Supreme Leader (Ayatollah Khamenei), the outrageous policies of arrogance in the Western Asia region are the creation of non-governmental pro-war wars. Therefore, the main objective of the research is to identify the key factors and drivers of non-governmental proxy warfare and to explain its scenario. The purpose of this study is to use applied research and In terms of method, it is a part of exploratory exploration research that has been done by scenario method. The statistical population of the study consisted of 10 military military strategy strategists who were selected by targeted method and the required information was collected by expert method and explained in the framework of scenario modeling. Out of the four possible scenarios against the Islamic Republic of Iran (scenario of non-governmental pro-war warfare, influence scenario, state-sponsored warfare and combined warfare), the scenario of non-governmental proletariat warfare Because of the possibility of more occurrence was explained and the results of the research indicate that due to the high cost of direct war, human casualties, Economic issues and the lack of persuasion of the public opinion, global arrogance, and above all, the United States are reluctant to enter directly into the war and, using existing or fictitious disputes, to incite and excite countries or religious ethnic groups to fight the GI. Iran deals with financial, economic, political and military support from them Them to achieve their goals.

With the entrance of the Islamic Awakening (the Arab Spring) into Yemen, Yemeni people in particular Houthis up rose against the government of Ali Abdullah Saleh that led to a 7-year and still-dissolved crisis. Due to the strategic situation of Yemen, the developments in this country have always been in the attention of influential countries such as Saudi Arabia and the United States of America, which together with the ]Persian[ Gulf Cooperation Council, tried to manage this crisis by replacing Mansour Hadi, deputy of Abdullah Saleh. But, this crisis has gradually become more complex and observers seek to suggest an appropriate solution. Therefore, this study seeks to answer this question that the developments in Yemen and the approaches of domestic and foreign actors what future can bring to the country? The findings of this futurology research based on scenario writing suggest the emergence of preferable scenarios such as the end of the conflict and starting peace negotiations and continuation of the conflict till surrendering Houthis and possible scenarios such as the acceptance of federalism and the breakdown of this country as well as a possible scenarios, namely the rise of al-Qaeda and the ISIS and the establishment of the Islamic Emirate in Yemen.

Achieving a "safe and sustainable city against a variety of injuries, hazards and accidents" is considered as one of the goals of the vision document of Tehran; along with the comprehensive plan The city of Tehran "considered the improvement of the crisis management system and improving the non-operating city's quality of defense" as one of the main strategies for the development of Tehran. Many scholars, drawing and challenging future city images, in order to overcome the ongoing changes and prepare themselves to confront the inherent complexities of the future, are considered as one of the most vital needs of urban communities. They believe that the survival and survival of cities without the attractive, strong and persistent images is not possible. Therefore, in this research, it is attempted to examine the images of the future of Tehran in the archetypal form of "growth, collapse, disciplined society and transformed society" using the " Dators Four Generic Alternative Futures " method. Until the identification of the most important challenges and opportunities of alternative futures, the basis for decision making and drawing of the desirable future of Tehran and provide expert-oriented proposals to enhance the city's performance and capacity in the field of crisis management and inactive defense is provided.

Establishing extensive sanctions against the Islamic Republic of Iran has put financial institutions and banks affiliated with the armed forces with serious challenges as one of the main pillars of the banking system and economic development of the country. The response of the banking system and the affiliated banks to these challenges is very important. As a result, recognizing these challenges and the importance of identifying challenges and finding a model for managing and confronting sanctions is one of the main questions of this research. Currently, due to the departure of the United States from Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, the ambitious future and future of the European countries in this study are trying to highlight the status of financial institutions and banks affiliated with the armed forces of the Islamic Republic of Iran in the scenarios for reducing sanctions or intensifying sanctions. And a conceptual model for improving the status of military banks in a boycott. The expected objectives of this study are to identify the challenges of banks and financial institutions dependent on the armed forces in the scenarios for reducing or increasing sanctions, and solutions to these challenges, the questions that this research is responding to include.

The main objective of this research is to examine and prioritize the quality improvement criteria in future wars, and to compare the status quo and the desired status of the indicators and analyze the gap between them. The present research is applied in terms of its purpose, and in terms of its method and nature, it is a descriptive survey. To collect data, a pair comparison questionnaire was used to prioritize the indicators, and a five-point Lickert scale questionnaire was used to collect the data in order to compare the status quo and the desired situation. The validity of the two questionnaires was verified by content and with the opinion of the academic and executive experts. To confirm the reliability of the first questionnaire, the reliability of the second questionnaire was used by Cronbach's alpha test. The collected data were analyzed by SPSS software and Expert Choice and analyzed through paired t-test and hierarchical analysis (AHP). The results of the study showed that among the indicators studied, the three indicators of flexibility, self-sufficiency and continuity have the most importance. Also, according to the research findings, the existing preparedness and support system in the face of future wars is significantly different from the desirable conditions for each of the 10 criteria, and the greatest gap is flexibility, timeliness and speed.