JOURNAL OF NATURAL ENVIRONMENT HAZARDS
Year:2020 | Volume:8 | Issue:22|Papers Count:14

Dust is a phenomenon that has many destructive environmental effects in different parts of human life, including: agriculture, economics, health and etc. The country of Iran, especially its western and southwestern regions, is suffering a lot of damage due to its presence in the area affected by the dust phenomenon every year. So paying attention to this issue and reducing the resulting damagest is a priority. The purpose of this Research is to investigate and predict the dust phenomenon in southwest of Iran. For this Research, 27 year old Dust Data were used at 14 synoptic Stations in Southwest of Iran during the period (1990-2017). In this Research, dust data was first normalized in 14 stations then, by using the hybrid-panel data model, the ANFIS Compatible Neural Network in Matlab Software was falsified and predicted and finally, to prioritize more stations, dust was exposed to TOPSIS and SAW multivariate decision making models. The findings of the Research showed that the reliability of the lira faction models (neural network of the hybrid panel compared to the ANFIS Comparative neural network) was higher. Based on prediction models, the maximum probability of occurrence, the maximum dust in the next 23 years in the studied area at two stations, Sarpol Zahab and Abadan are respectively (120. 709, 128. 917). According to the SAW model, the probability of occurrence of dust in the next 23 years is estimated at Abadan station with 0. 99% and Based on the TOPSIS model, Islamabad e Gharb station with a value of 97%. In order to reduce the damage caused by the dust phenomenon in the study area, in addition to domestic measures, such as inter-organizational cooperation, it should be addressed by concluding an international agreement with the neighboring countries.

Geographically, the studied region in Ilam dam watershed is between 46° 16'36'' to 46° 38'32'' eastern longitude and 33° 23'27'' to 33° 38'54'' northern latitude. The area of case study is 476. 5km2 with the highest and lowest height as 2400 m and 640m above sea level. In this study, in order to map the landslide hazard zonation of Ilam Cham Gordalan dam basin by weighting the main criteria and using fuzzy membership functions in Arc GIS and establishing the best relationship functions between the presence and absence of landslides, a set of parameters is used. Then, each of the factors affecting landslides in the under-study area such as slope, slope direction, elevation, geology, land use, distance from roads, distance from drainage network, distance from the fault, and rainfall map has been digitized in the software environment of ArcGIS and are used in the fuzzy analysis. Landslide hazard in the under-study area has been zoned using fuzzy operators (Gamma, Product, Sum, Or, And). After the fuzzy fiction phase, the effective measures in the landslide occurrences in the area have been prepared using the above-mentioned method through Gamma fuzzy operators with Lambda 0. 2، 0. 5، 0. 8and 0. 9and by comparing final maps, the ideal model for the landslide hazard zonation in the area has been selected. The results show that among the above-mentioned operators, the Gamma operator with Lambda 0. 9 is considered to be the most appropriate method for zoning the landslides in this area due to its fine fuzzy fiction of each criterion based on the distribution maps of occurred landslides and the way of separating risk classes.

Climate change affects agricultural production and, consequently, agricultural factors such as food security and economic well-being. In this study, by distinguishing between different aspects of climate change, the effects of four climate change assumptions, climate variability, climate change, variability and climate change on food security and economic well-being during the years of 2001-2016 were investigated and by using the cost and production information of three products of food security index in Iran (wheat, rice and potatoes), using the positive mathematical programming (PMP) method was used. The results of this study showed a sharp decrease in farm incomes and a surplus of economic welfare as well as an increase in the price of the product under the fourfold assumptions. In four assumptions examined, the average of total income 43979. 4, 127241. 9, 157960. 1 and 272367. 1 million Tomans was reduced, the price of the desired product 332. 95, 343. 7, 565. 18, and 1160. 86 one thousand Tomans was increased, and the total of economic welfare surplus decreased 927884. 4, 1542416, 2016383 and 2356754 million Tomans, respectively. Reducing the effects of climate change can be achieved by changing the pattern of cultivation, using modern irrigation methods and desertification.

The purpose of this study is analyzing the climate changing effects on almond phenology in a region with severe temperature fluctuation in Chaharahal and Bakhtiari province. For this purpose in this study, small-scale model SDSM and large-scale data of atmospheric general circulation canESM2 were used. Daily minimum, maximum temperature data, and precipitation in the statistical period of 30 years (1985-2015) for 4 stations were used as a basic data. And with using the SDSM model and general circulation under 2 scenario RCP4. 5 and 8. 5 from 2020-2050 compared with current amounts and its changes was evaluated. The results showed that the height factor had an important role in changing climatic elements and consequently temporal changes of almond phonological stages in the study region. Analyzing the reviewed scenarios showed that by affecting the climate changing, almond cultural calendar change and dates of crop phonological stages will happen sooner. Also the growth period will decrease; due to warming up of the region and early completion degree of required growth days. Special pattern of phonological stages changing showed that in both scenarios changes rates are more in the southern parts of the province and amounts changes decrease to the north. As regards in the forecasting period, the flowering stage occurs sooner and it coincides with the late spring frost of an almond tree. And because this stage is sensitive to cold, care proceedings should be increased. The results showed that in the regions where phonological stages occur sooner, the Impressionability of almond cultivation phonological stages is more than climate changing. In the province’ s southern regions the phonological stages occur sooner than other parts. And these regions have a greater impact from climate change.

The amount of precipitation measured by the radar is different from the amount of precipitation received on the ground. The difference has many causes, some of which are related to the nature of the radar and others to the climate of each region. As a result, radar data needs to be corrected and defined based on terrestrial data to determine the amount of ground-level rainfall received from the radar data. Weather radar used for estimation of rain in the large areas. The relationship between rain and reflectivity radar is exponential Z = aRb. Radar estimated rainfall amount is incorrect if the coefficients of this model are wrong. Drop size and distribution of rainfall is effective on the coefficient of this model. The change in the coefficients of this model is very high. In this study, to calibrate radar data, rain from 2 to 3 December 2016 and 11 to 13 February 2018 at the stations, Kermanshah, Eslamabad, Sarpol, Ghasre Shirin, Harsin, Javanroud, Tazabad, Songhor, Ravansar, Ghilan Gharb and Soumar at distance of 30 to 100 kilometers from Kermanshah’ s radar are investigated. In the first rain, using soft Rainbow for each of the stations and radar beam elevation angle optimization and correction factors relating to the extraction station, respectively. With this relationship, the radar rainfall estimates from 31 percent to 96 percent Increased and the average total rainfall from 8. 9 to 32. 4 millimeter increased an average radar rainfall estimated only 1 millimeter less than actual rain by gauge. In the second rain, using data from all stations, only one equation and correction factors were obtained. The results rainfall radar will be accepted at this stage, good approximation, and the average estimate rainfall radar from 9. 6 to 23. 5 millimeter increased those 4 millimeters less than the actual amount by gauge. If radar coefficients are corrected correctly for different areas, precipitation can be predicted and prevented from occurring unexpected events.

Dust is one of the atmospheric events of arid and semi-arid regions of the world that has had a notable increase in a recent year and negative effects in different parts. MODIS imagery provides an acceptable data source for accurate and timely monitoring of dust storms. However, there are useful dust indices based on MODIS imagery. In this study, the following are used: an improved brightness temperature adjusted dust index by Compound the brightness temperatures of three thermal infrared MODIS bands including band 20, band 31 and band 32 to monitor six representative dust storms over the West of Middle East between 2000 and 2016. When the dust storm indices of MODIS including the brightness temperature difference index in bands 32 and 31 (BTD32-31) and the normalized difference dust index (NDDI) and BADI are compared together, the BADI index more accurately estimated the spatial density of dust storms in our study area. The regression analysis has been showing significant correlations between the BADI index and MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth values. For the Five dust storms, the determination coefficients (R2) of the regression between the BADI index and MODIS Deep Blue AOD values were 0. 44, 0. 48, 0. 67, 0. 53 and 0. 45 (P < 0. 01), respectively. Considering that BTD 32-31 and NDDI are two widely used indices to detect dust storm, we compared the results obtained using the BTD 32-31, NDDI and BADI for detection of a dust-storm event that occurred on 17 Jul 2016 in order to illustrate the advantages of the BADI. The BADI index with the standard density index of MODIS Deep Blue Aerosol Optical Depth had the statistically significant relationship at P ≤ 0. 01.

Over-exploitation of the groundwater resources causes many environmental hazards among which land subsidence is more important. The main aim of this study is to evaluate the effect of groundwater level drawdown on land subsidence and fissure occurrence in the Kerdi-Shirazi plain, Hormozgan Province. For this reason, the groundwater level changes and distribution of the surface and subsurface sediments in the plain were investigated. Water level data from piezometers during the last 16 years from 1999 to 2015 indicate cumulative drawdown of about 40. 6 m with an average annual declining rate of about 2. 2 m. The groundwater level drawdown caused considerable stress loading on the aquifer forming sediments, resulted in compaction and settlement of aquifer materials. Consequently, a large fissure with a length of about 567. 6 meters appeared at the northwest part of the plain in 1394. The results of this study indicate that two main factors including groundwater level drop down and changes in the thickness of the fine-grained clay layer caused unequal subsidence, creation of the tensile stress, and consequently occurrences of the fissure. Based on these factors, map of hazards of fissure occurrence due to land subsidence was prepared for the plain with three categories including the high, moderate and low hazard areas.

Soil mechanics at large scale is a process that effects on infiltration rates, which can lead to an increased stormwater runoff. Sustainable land management for runoff controls requires reliable information on the spatial distribution of soil infiltration rate. The traditional method of soil analysis and interpretation are laborious, timeconsuming, hence expensive. Therefore spatial analysis of infiltration rate is necessary for the determination of susceptible areas for surface runoff. The purpose of this study was to propose alternative approaches in searching for infiltration rate and surface runoff hotspots. The study was conducted on an agricultural field at Khodafarin, East Azarbaijan province, Iran. It is with 675500 to 692500 longitudinal coordinates and 4332500 to 4349000 latitude coordinates. To arrive at the goal of this research, 88 sample points were selected with using a geographic information system and considering the soil distribution pattern and land utilization. Infiltration rate data was collected from double rings method with 3 replicated at each point. Soil samples were obtained from each point and then sent to soil mechanics laboratory to determine physical and chemical properties. Kriging method was used for the interpolation of the study area. Finally, soil properties distribution layer expended in Arc GIS software that analyzing hot spot surface runoff hazard. The significant correlation of infiltration rate with soil parameter including porosity, sand, silt, and organic content. Overall, at wide distances of case study lands organic material and porosity were assessed effectively to water permeability into the soil and other measured parameters due to statistics were without specified spatial distribution. The results showed that simulation generates equally likely sets of values for a variable, which are consistent with available in-situ measurements. The information on spatial sampling density and hotspot pattern could be useful for long-term monitoring and assessment.

The occurrence of factors such as decreasing atmospheric precipitation, population growth, and industrial progress has increased the importance of necessity of paying attention to the proper quality management of water resources. Pollution sources are categorized in different aspects. In this research, controllable and uncontrollable pollutant management is considered. To manage and control the damages caused by each of these types of pollutants, a certain qualitative tool is employed. Assimilation capacity is suggested when the pollution source is controllable and dilution flow is the proposed tool of this investigation to uncontrollable pollution management. To analyze and calculate the above mentioned qualitative tools, the simulation process is used by the analytical solution of the advection-diffusion equation. The case study considered in this research is an area with specific characteristics, which has been investigated by many previous types of research. Efficient indices in the determination of qualitative tools including the mean area of unallowable concentration (c? ), affected distance (X) and duration of unallowable pollution concentration contact with the river (T) was calculated in each simulation process loop. The results demonstrated that 94. 1% variation of river-reservoir flow discharge can change the assimilation capacity up to 99. 3%. Moreover, by applying a suitable dilution flow, 10 and 20 tons of sudden contaminants arrived at the permitted concentrations of 0. 5 and 1 mg / l over the river. In this process, the values of the crucial quality parameters of the river ( eH  X ( T) change up to 96. 6%, 92. 2% and 53. 7%, respectively.

The progress in flood estimation techniques has enabled us to use rainfall-runoff models to evaluate the hydrographic properties of the flood in watersheds, thus lowering the risks of flooding. Accordingly, this study aimed to determine the peak flood discharge for Amuqin area to reveal the impact of land use changes on peak flood discharge using a WMS model. Amuqin area stretches across approximately 78 km2 of land. The Curve Number (CN) of the basin was found by integrating land use maps with soil hydrologic group (B, C, D) obtained from analyzing Landsat 8 images in IDRISI32 and overlaying the maps in ArcGIS and were estimated at 76. 4 and 78. 7 for 2000 and 2015, respectively. The model calibration (RE= 7. 17  RMSE = 0. 44) and validation results (RE%= 2. 51, RMSE= 0. 0042) with rainfall-runoff phenomena in the area, suggested consistency with observations. Given the high sensitivity of this method to rainfall distribution, an analysis of rainfall across the region is required to obtain reliable results. Further, the curve number of the basin showed a 3% increase between 2000 and 2015 due to the reduced quality of the rangelands and the change to agricultural land use in areas of the basin most prone to flooding and erosion, which increases the peak flood discharge by 22, 26 and 25. 5% for return periods of 25, 50 and 100 years, respectively. The management of land use seems necessary in order to prevent future increases in the catchment CN.

Since the mid-20th century, alluvial plains in the south of Rey township, due to the vicinity to Tehran and roads, has favored the establishment of giant plants such as Tehran oil refinery and its auxiliary that air and land pollutions are inevitably part of such industries. This study is provided to investigate the sources and spatial spreading of a contaminant in the air, soils, and plants of Baghershar town. The studied town locates in 4 km from south of Tehran and has an area of 551. 5 hectares. The data obtained from the measurements had been done by Baghershahr municipality in 2016. Resource data were arranged within a GIS framework and interpolation methods were used to produce zoning maps. Findings show that in half of the time, the concentration of particles in the air, exceeds the standard limit, and for soils, the average amount of 15362 mg/kg of TPHs indicate high contamination. Combined zoning maps showed that southeast of the city was more polluted. This zoning map is highly consistent with the zoning of pollutants in the soil and is more or less consistent with the zoning in plants, but does not conform to zoning map of air pollutants. Plants and industrial complexes, loading, and transferring fuels, and transportation were a source of atmospheric pollution. Penetration of contaminants into soils and plants is often from non-atmospheric origins, but passing the wastewater channel alongside the town, and green spaces irrigation with polluted water extracted from wells, have been affecting contaminants spreading.

Sustainable development is the consequence of balance among the three parameters, contains economy, social and environment; As their inattention will cause the balance disturbance and getting away from the sustainable development. Mining industry and dependent industries are one of the most influential industries in economic development and industrialization process for each country. The main target of sustainable mining is the profit rising, reducing the operational risk and making the ideal environmental circumstances. Environmental impact assessment (EIA) is an essential issue in environmental problem protection. Environmental impact assessment (EIA) of the Boog Granite Mine located in Sistan and Balouchestan, Iran, and determining the effective factors and environmental components, was done, in present study. Boog granite mine is one of the most important Iranian construction quarries, which is extracted outdoors and has a significant impact on the economy, culture and environment around it. In this study, a quantitative model of environmental impact assessment was used by using the matrix method. Air quality, ecology and human health and safety are along the most environmental damages resulted from the mining activities in that area with 33. 63, 28. 26 and 28. 09 percent, respectively. Finally, the results gained from the assessment of the environmental impact are used to evaluate the sustainability using Philips Mathematical Model. Considering the accomplished calculations and considering that the environmental parameters are bigger than human parameter, the present project has been evaluated as a sustainable case; but the sustainability has been located in weak class. So environmental preventive measures are recommended to reduce the environmental damages to its components.

Considering the vital importance of the ozone layer and the rising course of its destruction in recent decades, the necessity of studying the ozone layer in order to know its state in the atmosphere of Iran has become more recent. In recent years, several techniques and techniques have been used to monitor this vital gas in the atmosphere of the planet. Meanwhile, the use of satellite data has become widespread because of the availability and availability of features such as spatial, temporal and spatial resolution. The study also uses ozone data collected by the AIRS based on the AQUA satellite, which provides an opportunity to study the process of Ozone changes in the atmosphere of all parts of the world, including Iran. The relevant data were extracted from the https: //disc. gsfc. nasa. gov/datasets/AIRS3STM_006 website with the NetCDF format, with one-day and oneday temporal resolution and a 1° x 1° spatial resolution during the 15-year statistical period (2003-217) ArcGIS and Grads software was analyzed, visualized, analyzed. The results indicate that annual ozone has dropped in the atmosphere of Iran. Among the seasons, the highest and lowest ozone levels occurred in the spring and autumn seasons, and the highest and lowest monthly ozone levels were observed in March and October, respectively. In terms of location, moving from the south to the north, it is approximately uniformly increased by the amount of ozone, so that the maximum total ozone (TOC) exists in Pars Abad plain (318 Dobson) and its lowest value in an interconnected area Provinces of Hormozgan, Kerman and Fars, and part of Southeastern Iran (283 Dobson). The maximum ozone concentration (ozonosphere) is also evident at an altitude of 27-40 km.