JOURNAL OF APPLIED THEORIES OF ECONOMICS
Year:2019 | Volume:6 | Issue:1|Papers Count:10

The Organization of Islamic Cooperation (OIC) was established in 1971 and includes 57 Islamic countries. The most important goal of this organization is strengthening and expanding political, economic, and commercial ties and creating a common market among its member countries. Considering the successful experience of Euro area, it might be possible that a common currency area could help the OIC countries to achieve the integration. Therefore, the purpose of this study is to investigate the possibility of forming a common currency area among the OIC countries. Based on the convergence criteria presented in the optimum currency area literature, the study uses two different clustering algorithms, i. e. fuzzy and hard clustering methods to cluster the OIC countries. The results show that there are adequate similarities in the economic structures of the Arab Economic Union (AEU) countries. Therefore it seems plausible to create a common currency area among the AEU countries. In addition, a subgroup of the Economic Cooperation Organization (ECO) countries also can join this common monetary union.

Fiscal illusion is one of the effective factors on government’ s budget status. Fiscal illusion refers to misinterpretation of financial parameters and overestimation and underestimation of expenditure and tax liabilities that leads to bias in budgetary decision at all levels of the government. Therefore, fiscal illusion in taxpayers confronts the politicians and the decision makers with a structure of motivations that prompts the adoption of public spending (expenditure) plans and increases the size of the government and its expenditure. The aim of this research is to investigate the effect of fiscal illusion on budgetary policy in selected developing countries between 2000 and 2014. For this purpose, we used dynamic panel data and a System Generalized Method of Moments GMM estimator. The results showed that fiscal illusion had a positive effect on budget deficit. So that the effect of fiscal illusion on budget deficit in the oil exporting countries it is higher than other countries; in the countries with high budget deficit is higher than in the countries with low budget deficit; in the countries with high fiscal illusion is higher than in the countries with low fiscal illusion, and in the high income countries is higher than other countries. Inflation has a positive effect and exchange rate as well as the degree of trade openness has negative effect on budget deficit.

This paper survey the estimating methods of Non Accelerating Inflation Rate of Unemployment in provinces of Iran. In this paper, statistical techniques and time series filtering methods (Hodrick-Prescott, Calman and Band-Po) have been used to estimate NAIRU during the period 2003-17. In the Band-Pass filtering method, we lose many observations at the beginning and the end of time series, so in this paper, we only used the results of the two methods of Hodrick-Prescott and Kalman filter. After estimating the model, the differences between the real unemployment rate and the NAIRU are calculated and provinces ranked based on these differences by using statistical tests. The results indicate an irregular trend in the gap between the real unemployment rate and the NAIRU in the entire country and provinces.

The exchange rate volatility as an important factor will affect the behaviour of supply and demand of financial markets participants. The importance of the spillover explanation between the two markets comes from managed floating exchange rate system in Iran and the large portion of the foreign currency-dependent industries in the capital market. This paper examines the dynamic conditional correlation and volatility spillover of the exchange rate on the capital market using three multivariate GARCH models in a 12-year period ending in 2016. The purpose of this study is to explain the effect of shocks and the spillover of the currency market on the Iranian capital market. This could play an important role in investors' decisions, fundamental analysts and also sovereign institutions. The results confirm the existence of negative short-term and positive long-term sustainability of exchange rate shocks on capital market returns. Also, the asymmetric and positive volatility spillover to the Iranian capital market was confirmed.

The main of this paper is to investigate the effects of social capital and human capital on air pollution in Iranian provinces during the period of 2000-2015. In this regard, using fuzzy logic of social capital was estimated in each province of the country. Then, considering the dynamism of the research model, the effects of social capital and human capital along with the control variables on air pollution emission were studied using GMM method. The results showed that social capital and human capital have a significant negative effect on air pollution in Iranian provinces. Therefore, the government can reduce the spread of air pollution by planning in the field; increasing expertise, improving the quality of manpower, raising awareness, reducing corruption, increasing people's participation, and reducing the gap between people and government. Other results of the study showed that economic growth, industrialization, energy intensity, urbanization, and past pollution contributed significantly to air pollution in Iran's provinces. However, squared per capita income variable have no significant effect on air pollution.

The balance-sheet channel was introduced after the big financial crises of 2008 and following the inability of the previous channels of monetary transmission mechanism to respond to the economic events. This channel similar to the bank lending channel can be categorized as one of the credit channels and based on the assumption of the inefficient and imperfect markets according to the asymmetric information. This channel sheds light on the important role of the firms in the transmission of monetary policy to the real economic variables. The financial statements of fifty nonfinancial firms from 2007 up to 2014 are studied by using the GMM method. In brief, the results indicate the negative and significant effect of the net worth of the firms and the interaction variable of monetary policy and the interest coverage ratio of the firms on the received loans. Therefore the effect of the monetary policy is boosted through the interest coverage ratio. Other findings relative to the macro and external organization factors, indicate the positive impact of the gross domestic product and price index on the received loans.

The purpose of this study was to investigate the effect of Iran's oil revenues on macroeconomic variables in the form of DSGE model during the period of 1995-2015 in the context of open economy based on the real business cycle pattern, in line with the conditions of the Iranian economy including households, enterprises, government and The monetary authority is the oil sector with an emphasis on the National Development Fund. The results of simulation of the model variables indicate that, due to the positive impetus of oil revenues, production, consumption, investment, government spending under both scenarios increases, but the increase in the direct tax distribution scenario is higher than the base scenario. Also, the greater the share of government-owned oil revenues (50 and 75percent) in households from the current budget, the increase will also be higher in the resources of the National Development Fund. Consequently, the contribution of the Facility to the Private Sector (F) increases. According to the modeling of this study, the increased private sector investment also increases, as a result of non-oil production in the country. Therefore, based on the results obtained, the direct tax-deductible distribution policy is recommended as a supplement to the National Development Fund.

The main purpose of the present paper was to investigate the effect of total factor productivity shocks in agricultural, industrial and service sectors on macro and sectoral variables of Iran’ s economy. Accordingly, we carried out this research based on statistical data of the period 2002-2015 and the specification of a dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model. The specified pattern was solved and simulated using the calibration method and the Dynare software. The results from model simulation indicate that TFP shocks in all of the three aforementioned sectors, consistent with the theory of the subject, had increasing effect on total production, sectoral production, private consumption and investment in the first period of application of shocks, and the economy reached equilibrium again after several economic periods. These shocks also had initial reducing effects on variables such as employment, wage, private consumption of imported goods, inflation, real exchange rate, changes in currencies and exports in the three sectors which increased in following periods and the economy reached equilibrium again.

Generation expansion planning (GEP) includes determining the optimal strategy to plan the construction of new generation plants while satisfying technical and economic constraints. Generation expansion planning (GEP) includes determining the optimal strategy to plan the construction of new generation plants while satisfying technical and economic constraints. The purpose of this study is to examine a multi-Objective power generation capacity expansion planning model for studying changes in production decisions and carbon dioxide contamination under uncertainty of power demand and supply. Uncertainty of demand and power generation capacity factor (supply uncertainty) were expressed as a fuzzy set, and a fuzzy multi-objective nonlinear model was used for a case study of Kerman power generation capacity expansion planning system for a 12-year period. The result of the study showed that in order to meet demand and to ensure the economic (minimizing production costs) and environmental (minimizing the costs of carbon dioxide pollution) objectives in the same time under the uncertainty of demand and generation capacity factor, the capacity of wind and water technology along with coal fuel should be respectively expanded by almost. However, as far as only economic goals are concerned, the plan will include the increase of coal fuel electricity production capacity. Furthermore, to meet environmental goal, capacity expansion of renewable wind, water and photovoltaic power technologies are respectively expected in the plan. The difference in results reveals the importance of integrated and comprehensive planning for the power generation capacity expansion planning.

The drastic oil price fluctuations in recent years have made researchers and policymakers curious about the role of each structural shock in the Variability of crude oil prices. In this study, fluctuations of WTI & ORB prices are analyzed in the form of a structural vector auto regression model (SVAR) over the period from 2006 to 2018. Based on historical decomposition of WIT price, fluctuations of crude oil price in 2008 are mainly due to a combination of structural shocks, in which oil demand shocks play a significant role in the sharp fall of oil prices since the second half of 2008 Onwards. While the reason for the fall in WIT crude oil price in the second half of 2014 was largely due to supply shocks and oil inventory demand shocks. During this period, contango has accelerated the accumulation of crude oil commercial stocks and has intensified the oil price fall.