STRATEGIC STUDIES QUARTERLY
Year:2019 | Volume:22 | Issue:1 (83)|Papers Count:6

This article seeks to obtain the principles and requirements of the explanation stage in the security analysis process based on the theoretical coordinates of chaos theory. This objective is accomplished through answering the following questions: What are the epistemic foundations and conceptual and theoretical principles of chaos theory? And what are the epistemic and methodological requirements of the explanation process within the framework of chaos theory? According to the theoretical and epistemic principles of chaos theory, the explanation stage should take shape based on the principles of "systemic recognition", "importance of internal relations between components at a proper temporal and spatial scale", "unbalanced component effect", "sensitivity to initial conditions", and "short-term forecast window" and should identify and explain the cause of the occurrence of a phenomenon.

The discourse of the 11th administration has taken shape based on the noble concept of "moderation" and its components include an interactive approach to the outside world, a moderate interaction model inside the country, an Iranian-Islamic model of development, a broad non-securitized model in the social field, non-mechanical cultural engineering, a combined-local-economic approach to national security with software orientation, creating a promotional model of the Islamic Republic, and a cultural approach to the fight against imperialism. Studies show that the moderation discourse has been effective in the fields of military security, political security, and social cohesion; has had a dual outcome in the area of economic security; and has a long way to achieve the stated goals in the field of environmental security despite some accomplishments.

The purpose of this article is to study the concepts of balance and stability in Russia's Middle East policy and the resulting threats and benefits for Iran. In the author's view, Moscow believes that establishing balance and strategic stability at two levels could help secure its long-term interests, given its limited resources and regional dynamics, particularly the potential of regional instability and threats spilling over fast to adjacent areas and the international stage. Balancing relations with the United States and contributing to efforts aimed at forging balanced relations between regional powers are the two principles of balance at the regional level that Russia is following to achieve its major aim of ensuring strategic stability. Although cooperation with the United States as part of Russia's macro policy of balance and stability within the framework of global governance creates certain restrictions for Iran, some aspects of it, including the deterrence it provides against destabilizing moves by the United States and its allies, are in line with Tehran's interests.

This article argues that although critical thinkers such as Yoram Peri, Oren Barak, and Gabriel Sheffer point to the independence and influence of Israel's army in the civil area, they disregard large parts of these interferences, which results in ignoring key issues in the relations between the Zionist regime's government and army. Israel's army exerts influence on the government and civil society organizations through four major ways: providing the government with political advice and strategic intelligence, shaping the public opinion in Israel, the army ruling over the occupied territories under the pretext of fighting against the Palestinian intifada, and military officers assuming the most important posts in the political arena. This article brings this issue into the spotlight that although Israel's army has failed in certain periods to advance its agenda, it exerts profound influence on the regime's policies by using various mechanisms.

The studies conducted as part of this article show that the network of intellectuals created by the United States during the Cold War realized the ineffectiveness of a hardline and negative approach to opinions of the left and moved to provide an internal reading of it as the "non-communist left" by adopting a soft and affirmative attitude, while recognizing this orientation. By developing and supporting this idea, which transforms communism within itself and criticizes it while epistemically belonging to the left's ideology, this network promoted an alternative model that served the political purpose of institutions of power and their funders, namely curbing the influence of the Soviet Union, while undermining the foundations of the legitimacy of eastern European governments.

The United States Intelligence Community underwent an unprecedented transformation at the beginning of the 21st century. The changes took place in the three fields of structure, objectives, and tools. By asking what reasons underlie the transformation of the United States Intelligence Community in the 21st century, this study presents this hypothesis that "new terrorism", which marked a milestone in security issues on September 11, 2001, has been the main reason behind this transformation. In addition, two other factors, namely "cyber revolution" and "changes in the structure of the international system" have also had an impact in this regard. The findings of the study show that there is no significant evidence or document incompatible with the presented hypothesis and that all the mentioned factors have had an impact on the transformation of the United States Intelligence Community.