Geography and Development
Year:2006 | Volume:3 | Issue:6|Papers Count:12

Geographical position of a country can effect different impressions on its national power and political behaviors. Also, geographical position understanding of different parts of a country can directly effect on the country interests. The south-east of Iran holds remarkable geopolitics capacity as economic, security, access, regional and international communications which possesses power producer operations in the country that neglected ever and numbered one of the most backwards zones with economics, sociological and environmental. The country future development is involved to design of competent diplomacy and optimal use of this country operations considering to geographical and coastal position of the Oman sea.This article with descriptive- analytical method from using library sources and variant maps determines the geographical facts and geopolitics potential of the south- east of Iran especially the Oman sea coasts and its effects on Iran Commonweal.

In this survey the data relating to global temperature anomalies and annual mean temperature of Tabriz station have been used for 1951-2003 period. The main methodologies are being used in this research are the Pearson correlation coefficient method, analysis of trend component of time series, simple linear and polynomial regression as a semi linear model and Artificial Neural Networks methods. The results of applying Pearson analysis indicate significant positive and direct correlation between global temperature anomalies and annual temperature in Tabriz station. The analysis of long term trend components of time series shows that the annual mean temperature of Tabriz and annual global temperature anomalies has a increasing trend towards the length of the period. Also have simulated the relationships between annual temperature in Tabriz station and global temperature anomalies using artificial neural networks. The applying different methods demonstrated that artificial neural network is recognized as a better and more accurate simulation model compared to the other models applied in this research, i.e., simple regression model, and semi-linear polynomial regression with the power of 6 models.

By occurrence of climate change phenomenon and increasing of human’s interference on global climate, two natural disasters such as drought and flood effect on different parts of the earth. In recent years, our country was alternatively witness in occurring of floods and severe droughts in some parts, specially conjoint occurring of these natural disasters, improve each other as severe droughts spoiled vegetative coverage and humidity of soil that facilitates agent for flowing destructive floods. On the other hand, occurring of severe floods have caused destroyed agricultural lands and eroded fertile soils and has amplified the effective of drought in these places. In this watershed which has high submergible potential, with an extensive and accurate management, we can reduce the effects and damages of flood and use it for increasing water potential in this place, for example increasing soil moisture, discharging aquifer and increasing water resources in dams' lakes. For succession in these actions, an expansive and optimum flood risk management in that watershed is necessary. Kardeh watershed is located on near Mashhad, which considered as case study. The risk of flown floods in this basin is modulated with three flowing types of statistical models: 1) Probability Distribution Functions, 2) Linear Regressive Model, 3) Auto Regressive Independent Moving Average (ARIMA) Models.According the results of models testing, Probability Distribution Functions couldn’t be able to model the floods risk in basin. Regressive Model doesn’t offer acceptable responses because it obeyed one general trend. ARIMA Time Series Models are tested in different stages and finally, ARIMA (1,2,3) Model offered the best statistical fitness. According the conclusion from this research, by using of three statistical models, we can get a fit model for flood risk management for (Kardeh) basin that is usable practical and conclusion of this research is expansible and usable for the other similar watershed basins.

This paper primarily elaborates on methodology of human development then examines factors influencing it as well as degree of their effects. The research method is quantitative analytic which computer software's and models are used. In this paper, 38 using modern statistical methods are reduced to 6 combination factors and indicated as meaning factors in Also percentage on each factors in human development is identified. The result shows that the effect of first factor on human development in different region of the country has been 63% and the effect of subsequent factors has been 13.3, 7.2, 5.8, 5.7 and 4.7 respectively. The establishing regression relationship between effective factors and the rate of regional development shows that effect of all factors except factor 6 has been significant, therefore, principles of population-education, health-medication and housing are the first priority development in undeveloped, low semi-developed, high semi developed and developed regions respectively. Employment, economic- social principle from low which regions take second priority in second development of the country. The principles of roads which can increase level of development in undeveloped and deprived region take third priority.

Alongside the rapid development of computer hardware's and software's in late 1990s, the use of Geographical Information Systems (GIS) in Iran has been accelerated for zoning sensitive areas for occurrence of landslides. However, the utilization of such services and facilities would not present precise results without some consideration of base data. The western and south-western parts of Orumiyyeh are generally susceptible for toppling and rotational landslide occurrences. It was emerging at first glance that the ground level data could be easily accessed; hence, regarding the available facilities, seven land characteristics including slope gradient, hydrography, vegetation cover, pedology, lithology, land use, and the land permeability were extracted by GIS analysis. However the results of this analysis indicated these data were suffering either from their scales, lesser validities due to shortage of research backgrounds. Therefore, relying on these insufficient data could only result to the very small scale and general maps. Although the hazard/susceptibility maps of landslides have applications in some of development and watershed management schemes, one can carry out a cost - effective zoning with detailed and comprehensive study of important or the most important influential factors of landslides.

Arid and semi-arid areas cover more than 30 percent of the earth lands. Analysis of the characteristics of irrigation systems in these lands can offer a basic foundation for local and regional planning. Massive research has been carried out on the existing ducts, water - storage and irrigation systems in central plateau of Iran, show the most important works of the country regard as traditional irrigation systems, where more than 70 percent of the land is arid and semi-arid.The research has been done by the descriptive - analytical method which indicates that the system of traditional management irrigation is based on particular natural geographical conditions especially water- deficiency, intensive evaporation and shining duration (the difference between day and night length in plant growth period) in Yang- Abad.

The study area is located at the 38°, 42' to 38°, 52' northern latitude and 45°, 23' to 45°, 40˝ eastern longitude with an area of 283 km2 and 8.5 km far from Republic of Azarbaijan. Large extension of unconsolidated and semi-resistant formation contain clay and salty alluvials, gypseous, marl, Clay plains, as well vast superficial mainly tiny formation at the low gradient intermountain points, have created background for genesis and development typical gullies. In the study area, gully erosion not only caused the soil and vegetation destruction, but also created some problems for using agricultural machines. Thus, significance of this study becomes more clear. The results of climatic estimated indices_ such as Ws (the amount of wet in the soil), hydrothermal coefficient and some equations verified potentiality of the zone for gullyfication. Related to increasing of gradient caused decreasing of the superficial unstable formations and then length and as well as number of gully. This subject estimated with linear regression for 43% samples in the area. There are negative significance with%95confidence between gullies length and their heights locations and %45 correlation coefficient. Thus, with increasing of height, steepness become intense but diameter of destructed fine aggregate and soil materials decreased so, deep and large gully in compared with low steep surfaces, less formed. In the other hand the exist of reverse significant with %40 correlation coefficient for gradient and depth verifies the above subject, (average deep of gullies at the plains is about 2.2m and in mountain area 1.62m). According to the results of this cause study, gully erosion is one of the important factors to instability and destruction of superficial formations on the slopes and some Parts of plain area.

In this study, Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) was used to identify and classify air masses in basins of south-western part of Iran. The method of SSC classifies the air masses into six groups based on origin and their moderation in its direction. Include Dry Polar (DP), Moist Polar (MP), Dry Tropical (DT), Moist Tropical (MT), Dry Moderate (DM) and Moist Moderate (MM) air masses. This denomination to identify properties of air masses. Typical days (as evidence) are needed to determine the properties of air masses and their classification. Arrangement line of the surface of the surface level maps and 850 hpa levels represent the transference of special air mass to under study area. Primary criteria of typical days selection for each air mass at each station were used through the exact evaluation of datum and surface level climatological maps and 850 hpa levels. An each selected typical days was tracked from the origin to the domain under study and their features were evaluated. The selected typical days determine the particularity of an air mass. Hour time of 3, 9, 15, and 21 UTC for 10 synoptic stations during the statistical period of 1961-1999 was used to classify air mass in term of variable such as temperature, dew point temperature, pressure QFF, cloudiness, the direction and speed of wind. Related variable was merged using PCA and dimensions of matrix were reduced. In this study mode P was used to identify air masses and discriminantal analysis was used to classify air masses. So that the features representative of typical days were used as input for discriminant analysis function for the purpose of air masses classification. Accordingly we effect of air masses on basins of south - western of country (Iran) in winter, December to February, was identify using SSC. Climatologic conditions and accumulative effects determine by air masses that from this region pass.

In towns and cities of Iran until 1940 decades, the impoverished groups were living in neighborhood of riched groups in different districts: But since 1940 decades, at the outset of the civil planning, the traditional local system was dissolved and replaced by a regional model on the basis of a kind of parting classification and neglecting low- income groups. Therefore, these people who could not afford to buy the expensive domiciles in proper districts, first resided at the marginal districts and then moved to suburban areas, generally at the tural centers. The inhabitance of low- income people in the areas that have no interaction with other social classes, like middle- classes, from one side, and the decreasing state control in these places from the other side, led to figuration and concentration of different social abnormalities in these places. This article deals with main agents which have important role development and rise of crimes: low level of people subsistance and decline of state control in untaught settlements. Case study untaught city Pakdasht is one of untaught settlements around metropolitan Tehran.

Dust is an atmospheric phenomenon which has many unsuitable consequences to environments. In relation to location and climatic situation, Iran exposes too many local and synoptic dust storms at through the year. With regards to nearness of west part of Iran to deserts of Iraq and Arabian Peninsula, this part of the country generally exposes to sever dust storms. In this article we have studied the genesis and origin of dust systems in west part of Iran from 1983 to 1987. The hourly data of dust, visibility, relative humidity, rainfall, wind and other factors for 15 synoptic stations from west of Iran were utilized. So, weather maps in two levels of ground and 500 hpa layers were analyzed. Results of this study show that the number of dust days and dust waves in June is very high in comparisons to the other months. Dezful station with average 137.4 days, during statistic period has had the dustiest situation. When Khoy with average 2.6 days has had the least dusty station.Also, results show that the troughs and dynamic low pressures penetrate to zone when subtropical high pressure is absent or very weak. These systems in relation to situation sometimes produce dust and sometimes rainfall or both together but when the Azores high pressure is strong, thermal lows at the ground are producing. These lows play important roles in production of local dust storms. With regards to routes and location of troughs and cyclones in different days, the Syria desert, Nofoud desert in the north of Arabian Peninsula and northern of Sahara desert main roles in genesis of dust storms respectively. Thermal lows of Arabian Peninsula are effective when these pressure centers are going to near the west part of Iran or supported by a strong trough at the upper level. In other word, this phenomenon is happened when above mentioned systems changing into dynamic-thermal lows.