Geography and Development
Year:2017 | Volume:15 | Issue:48|Papers Count:17

Climatic changes and environmental degradation has had a significant impact on the movement of people around the world. Reactions of people is different in response to the climatic changes and the most important reaction of people is toward the environmental deterioration and removal of the relocation risk, that migrations caused by climatic changes and its consequences form the shape of climate refugee. The idea of Climatic refugee or climatic change refugee is a relatively new idea. Lack of adaptability and the required capacity for climatic changes are the most important causes of the humans vulnerability. Southern Khorasan Province located in the southeast of Iran is one of the places vulnerable to climatic changes. In this study to assess the climatic changes, the precipitation and temperature data and the number of days of dust and groundwater resources have been used for 20 years up to 2014. To identify and predict the climatic changes of South Khorasan province, Statistical Down Scaling Model (SDSM) by using LARS- WG model and Evaluation Indices of climatic changes have been used. For the assessment, the climatic changes of 10 stations of the province for period 2010-2030 have been made under Lars Model. By using such data, firstly , the centers of the crisis due to the climatic changes have been identified and zoned in GIS environment. Then the dispersion of the settlements which are subject to such risks has been specified. For the assessment of climatic refugees, the migration statistics of year 1996 and up to 2011 have been used and the rural settlements at these areas which have been evacuated and removed in this period have been determined. Processing of climatic data shows that most of the province districts were affected by climatic changes, but south of the province centered by Nehbandan, has had the greatest impacts of climatic changes. These events led to population displacement and the formation of climatic refugees in the south of the province and the population of the southern provinces has moved to the north of the province. The human settlements of the province in 1996 was equal to 61.76 percent which decreased to 45.61 percent in 2011. So that the role of climatic changes in the last 20 years is evident with the challenges such as drought, degradation of water resources, desertification, particularly in the west and south part of the province.

One of the criteria for estimating the amount of energy used for cooling and heating is the degree hour. The aim of this study was to select the most appropriate method to calculate the cooling degree hour and simulate these parameters in the coming decades. Firstly, by using EH5OM model data from Max Planck Institute in Germany, the hourly temperature data at a time interval of 3 hours (8 data per day) in Iran territory during the period of 2025-2060 under A1B scenario of the International Committee of Climate Changes and resolution 1.75 ´ 1.75 of longitude and latitude degree were simulated. Then the hourly temperature data separetely with 0.27 ´ 0.27 of geographical altitude and latitude degree which covers an area with dimensions of approximately 30 ´ 30 km of Iran was downscaled by the fourth edition of the regional climatic model. By using temperature threshold 23.9° C degree, the required hours of cooling per hour in each day and their monthly calculation were extracted in a matrix of size 2138 ´ 3456. In this matrix, the rows indicate the total of monthly degree hours and the columns indicate the cells. Then the hours of 09, 12 and 15 Zulu were selected from the existing hours and the total monthly average of degree hours of 6 warm months of the year (April to September) were calculated on a matrix of size 2140 ´ 12 and its maps were drawn in Surfer software. The trend amount of the said degree hours was calculated in MATLAB software and through the Mann-Kendall test on 2140 ´ 12 matrix and their monthly process maps were drawn. The results showed that spring season sepecially April and May months will have the greatest hour cooling need and the lowest one will be in summer, especially in August and September. Maximum cooling needs in the hours of 09 and 12 Zulu in April and May in Khuzestan plain and 900-1000 hour degree in the southern coast hinterlanda and the lowest one at 15 o' clock zulu, On the hills of Azerbaijan, Zagros, Alborz and Khorasan in June, July, August and September will be zero hour degree. The positive trend of cooling need is in the West and southern banks at every three hours of the under study in the months of April, May and June and July which indicate the warmer temperatures in the first half year. Central belt and across the eastern and northern half of the country except in June has no trend in the rest months of the year.

The aim of this study is, the study of role of Mediator Management and Planning in the Relations between the role of Resources, Community and Tourism with Sustainable Eco-tourism Development in Darre Rageh of Rafsanjan town.The method of the research is descriptive - correlation method. Participants were 252 people of tourists entered in to Rageh canyon which selected by using available sampling method. All of them completed the scales of the role of sustainable eco-tourism development, community, resource, tourism, management & planning. In this research, the data analyzed with SPSS & Lisrel software.The results of the study indicate that resource has the role of resources has a direct effect on sustainable ecotourism development. The role of resources with mediation of management & planning has indirect effect on sustainable eco-tourism development, But with mediation of management & planning has an indirect impact on the sustainable eco-tourism development. Tourism has a significant effect on sustainable eco-tourism development both directly & indirectly with intermediation management & planning. Also, management & planning perform a direct & significant effect on sustainable eco-tourism development.Resource & tourism role can impact directly and indirectly on sustainable eco-tourism development. But, the community has only an indirect impact on sustainable eco-tourism development. Applied implications of results were discussed.

One of the causes of mass movement is the presence of faults. The studied basin in this research was Khezr-Abad Basin, one of the sub-basins of Yazd-Ardakan plain on the northern slope of Shirkouh mountain range in Yazd which is located between 53 - 41' -30" up to 54 - 12' of east longitude and 31- 46' -00 up to 32-06' -00 of north latitude. and there are over 418 km of faults in the basin. This basin is part of the city of Sadukh and located in the south part of the city. In this study, the fault weight were identified through the geomorphic indicators and In order to prove the region's activation, the mountain front sinuosity index and rock formations photo lineament recognition through areal photos, satellite photos (remote sensing) and Geology Maps has been performed that the index action in the East Zone was 1.2 and in the western zone was 1.3, which indicates that the basin is morph tectonically active. Then by identifying the fault zone in the region and identifying the main and minor faults and preparing faults maps in the Arc GIS, the effect of the fault zone on the formation of mass movements was evaluated.

Drought is one of the natural and hazardous phenomenon which occurs periodically due to the lack of humidity resulting from decrease of precipitation. In this research, it is tried to study the pervasive droughts in Ghazalozan water basin during the last two decades. To obtain the research objectives, the data of climatic stations with statistical period of 1991-2011 have been used. at the first step, the general characteristics of precipitation and the basin discharge were examined. At the next step, Further calculations were performed by using MATLAB, Excel, GIS and Surfer softwares. Then based on Moran index I, the map for spatial distribution of abundance, occurrence probability and spatial autocorrelation of discharge, drought and rainfall were drawn. Analyzing the drought maps showed that there exists a significant relationship between discharge drought with precipitation in Ghazalozan area. Accordingly, the results of analyzing Moran spatial autocorrelation indicates that the impacts of discharge droughts and precipitation has formed more the above pattern in southern part of the basin, while in other areas, the discharge draughts and precipitation have a random pattern.

Usually environmental science and geography researcher use OLS model for variable spatial relations analyzing. This model has some lacks and shortagea in spatial outcome especially in local scale. In recent years, GWR model are used by some scientists for analyzing the relation of spatial variables in local scale.In this article, for analyzing and comparison of these models, land use change (as dependent variable) are assessed in relation with drawdown and withdrawal of groundwater resources (as independent variable) in years of 2001-2011 in Khanmirza Plain (Chaharmahal va bakhtiari province). In order to study the models efficiency, the Standardized residual variation's coefficient, Spatial Local dependencies, Morn’s Index, Corrected Akaike Information Criterion and Local coefficient of determination were used. Result indicate that based on Standardized residual coefficient of variation, GWR model has better ability to adopt data on variables respect to OLS. The findings of the research showed that based on the standardized coefficient of variations, GWR model has the ability to adapt data than OLS. Also, based on the results of the explanation coefficient on the variables of the research, GWR model creates a favorable local fit between regression and sample points. Based on Morrow index, GWR pattern represents the least similarity of the amount and location in the adjacent positions of the data samples and prows the performance of GWR model in providing spatial outputs relative to the OLS pattern.

Tourism is an industry that nowadays considered by many governments and currently is one of the most profitable sectors of the global economy. The tourism industry has a significant impact on employment rates, national income, consumption and investment. Depending on the purpose of the tourist, tourism is classified into various types, one of them is geotourism Although geo tourism now has allocated a small part of the total tourism to itself, but at the present, this part of tourism industry has a very high growth rate. In this paper by using the Geographic Information System (GIS), identifying areas prone to geo tourism in the protected area of Manesht, Bankol and Galarang using the Boolean logic model and AHP model have been investigated. For this purpose, information layers including maps of geomorphic, geological, topographic, gradient zoning, vegetation, mineral springs, communication paths, water resources and map of welfare and residential accommodations were prepared.Applying the appropriate weights was done in the Expert choice software environment. Then through combining and overlapping information layers in Arc GIS10.2 environment, suitable areas were identified and top priorities to the development of geo tourism in the area were introduced. The results of this study show that the areas with high attraction are located in the north, center to south-east of the protected area, which have vegetation and forest cover, water resources and high geomorphologic values, and areas with lower attraction are located more in the south and west area, which have evaluated as poor in terms of for geomorphologic values, vegetation and forest cover, access and infrastructure, water resources and natural attractions. The results of this research show that the two models of AHP and Boolean's logical model are highly adaptive in assessing geotourism in the studied region and can be suitable for assessing geo tourism in different regions. Also, the correct introduction of these natural attractions to the tourists, will positively affect on the natural environment of the tourists and improve the attraction of tourism.

Soil and water conservation, sustainable development and job creation were considered as one of the most important of the country's knowledge-based management strategies in poor and rural region. Soil survey, Watering ability, standard classification and land suitability for amending or replacing the current use and also new irrigation methods to increase irrigation efficiency in agricultural part and promote the value added of agricultural production was an important step to achieve resistance economies. In this regard, a study was conducted in the Rigan County located at the South East of Kerman Province. Intended region was very poor and this research was very important in terms of manufacturing career opportunities and get template for nearby areas. The main objectives of this research were the feasibility of modify and production new capabilities in water and soil resource for Eliminating or reducing the restrictions on improve or change land utilization type and promotion of management operations in the region. Field studies including site selection and drilling of 23 soil profiles and 160 soil sampling were conducted to attain above objectives. various thematic maps such as land resource evaluation, standard classification and land Watering ability were prepared for two irrigation method as surface (traditional) and localized (modern) using auxiliaries’ data such as satellite imagery, geological and topographic maps and weather information, previous studies and laboratory analysis result from soil sampling. Then, current and future land suitability evaluation were conducted for three land utilization types including irrigated wheat, alfalfa and the date. Physiographic lands of the study area were piedmont plain, plateau and alluvial fan. The results showed soils based on comprehensive classification of soils (Soil Taxonomy, 2014) are classified into the Salids and Gypsids suborder category. Land modifiable restrictions and the uncorrectable limitation can be noted salinity and alkalinity, hardpan layer, topography and climate, large amounts of gravel in top and subsoil, respectively.Due to the presence of underground water resources, doing improvement operation, changing irrigation method and performing an efficient management can be planted suitable variety of land utilization types (agriculture and horticulture) for all of the region that were bare land. Part of the region having agricultural capability land use were moderately suitable class (S2) for wheat and alfalfa utilization types and the entire region were suitable class (S1) and moderately suitable class (S2) for date. Finally it can be said that the fulfillment of rural development programs, overcome on deprivation and restrictive economy goals in soil and water resources context are accessible by implementing suitable management.

Urban old and problematic textures in developing countries, like Iran, are more vulnerable to earthquakes than other urban textures. The city of Kerman has become the most violent earthquake in the country due to numerous active faults and devastating earthquakes with high human casualties. Out of the total area of the worn out texture of Kerman province, which is about four hundred and sixty two acres, 1589 ha are located in the city of Kerman. The necessity to reduce the vulnerability of the city against earthquakes is one of the main goals of physical and urban planning. The purpose of the study is to identify and level the vulnerability of urban tissues. The main issue is that the city of Kerman has a lot of vulnerable areas, and identifying vulnerable levels and reducing vulnerability can be effective in crisis management. The research method is descriptive-analytical one. The research data were prepared using documentary and field studies. The data of Kerman Municipality Crisis Management were used and indicators such as type of materials, population density, width of passages, type of use and structural density were investigated and maps of each of these criteria are provided usingSDM FUZZY software in Arc GIS. The final vulnerability map shows that Kerman city tissues with 11.7% of cases are very vulnerable, 14.1% are highly vulnerable, 13.3% have average vulnerability, 15.5% Low vulnerability, 45.9% have very low vulnerability, which indicates the inappropriate status of the tissues.

Precipitation is one of the most changeable meteorological and hydrological phenomena. Estimating the average annual number and the manner of rain fall time changes for management and planning changes of water resources in different regions is a necessary subject, So that the maximum or minimum exponential number with different objectives in water resources management has an important cultural, social and political consequences in a country. In many resources, always numerical value of 240 to 250 mm of rainfall in the past few decades has been introduced. So on this basis to explore the accuracy of the above number; the aim of this study was to calculate the mean and variance of rainfall during the final decades in Iran. In this study, changes in precipitation over the last four decades in 33 synoptic stations with proper spatial distribution were studied. For temporal analysis of precipitation data, firstly their preliminary nature from the view of the uniformity, adequacy and stochastic were statistically analyzed And the average precipitation was calculated by Thiessen polygons and Isohyetal in different ways of Kriging interpolation, inverse distance and natural neighborhood, and using Leuven statistics, the heterogeneity of variances were compared in different decades. Based on the results obtained, the average rainfall in Iran over the past four decades was estimated 421 mm in Thiessen polygons method, 232 mm in Kriging method, IDW 715 mm and Natural Neighbor Interpolation 715.5 mm. The results of the study of heterogeneity of variance in four decades showed that the variances are homogeneous and does not show a significant difference.Accordingly, it is proposed that the nominated method for estimating precipitation on the surface to be selected based on the considered objective and accuracy.

The present study aimed to investigate the effects of information and communication technologies on development of some social and economic indicators of rural areas in Bahar city. This study was an applied research in terms of purpose, a surveying study in terms of data gathering method and a descriptive-analytic in terms of data analysis. The study population consisted of 15, 933 residents of 13 villages with ICTs in the central sector of Bahar city. Of them a sample of 375 were selected based on Kregsi and Morgan's sampling size table and the samples were distributed among the villages proportionally. Data collection tool was a questionnaire which first validated through a panel of experts and university professors. The reliability of the questionnaire was calculated through Cronbach's alphas and they were ranged from 0.863 to 0.872. A 5-point Likert-type scale ranged from one (very high) to five (very low) was used to measure the economic and social indicators. The extent to which users made use of ICT services was measured through a 5-point Likert-type scale, ranged from one (never) to five (frequently). The data processing was run by SPSS software in two separate ways descriptive and analytic. Results of testing the hypotheses showed that the use of ICT has a positive effect on all economic indicators studied in this research such as increasing production, amounts of income's generating by rural people, employability, decreasing transportation costs, and marketing. The results also showed that the use of ICT may improve some social indicators such as rural participation, social trust, social welfare, education and communication, but had a negative effect on rural migration. Due to the impact of ICT on both social and economic indices, it is recommended that more attention be given to the rural ICT centers and offices by governmental and non-governmental supports. In order to better support from rural ICT centers, a supervisory role of state and a strong training system should be planned.

The longitudinal profile of the rivers provides valuable information about the changes in the conditions governing the catchment areas. For this reason, it has always been the favorable subject of many researchers. By examining the longitudinal profiles of the rivers, we can examine the status of tectonic activities in the region. In this research, the longitudinal profile of the catchment area of Polrood river basin and its effective factors were investigated. In order to do this research, the study area is divided into 10 basins and sub basins, and in each of these basins, the sub-basins, type of flow, the amount of tectonic activity and exit points of equilibrium status in the form of longitudinal profile of the river were identified.In the tectonic assessment of the under study river basins and sub-basins, some of the active tectonic indicators of Hi, the SL index and also the drawing of the Ds diagram have been used. Also, the results obtained from calculating the hypsometric integral indices and the SL index in these basina and sub basins indicate the mild rate of tectonic and uplift activity. The formation of NIC points and fractures in the Basin and sub-basins of Plourod, Shelman and Jirkol are litho logical changes. In other words, litho logical changes in these three basins and sub-basins cause distortion of the longitudinal profile of the river. The rate of hypsometric integral in the basin of the Polrood, Shelman and Jirkol basins is 0.79, 0.59 and 0.38, respectively. These values indicate a relatively high level of tectonic activity in these three basins, however, litho logical changes in these basins and sub-basins are the cause of forming fractures and imbalance in the longitudinal profile of the river. Values of hypsometric integral in Selechal, Asgharabad, Chalakrood and Sorkh-Ghele sub-basins are 0.54, 0.6, 0.45 and 0.44, respectively, which indicate the mild tectonic level in the sub-basins of the Chalakrood And Sorkh-Ghele, as well as relatively high tectonic rates in the sub-basins of Asgharad and Selechal. The cause of imbalance and fracture in the longitudinal profile of the river in this basin and sub-basin is a combination of tectonic and litho logic factors. The highest rate of SL index anomalies is in sub-basins of Selechal, Asgharabad, Chalakrood, which are high and resistant in terms of litho logy, the remaining anomalies of basins and sub-basins of the study area have values of SL index of medium up to low. Eventually, the study carried out in this basin and the obtained results, it was revealed that the shape of the longitudinal profile of the Polrood River is more subject to litho logical changes and tectonic processes have less effect on it.

The water erosion is as one of the important issues in agriculture and watershed management. researchers, through different studies are looking for ways to minimize it. Rainfall erosivity index is the most important factors affecting on soil erosion and is a function of the rain physical properties. Various index have been developed to quantify the rainfall erosivity factors. The choice of appropriate indicators is important due to ecological conditions. This study has been carried out in Fars province to estimate rainfall erosivity index according to the relationship between quantity-based indicators of erosion and erosivity factor introduced by Which meier and Smith, (EI30) and to zone by using different geo statistics and deterministic methods. Investigation of the regression relations showed that Fournier index was as a suitable indicator for the province with r=0.80. In the next step, erosivity factor (R) was calculated for stations without rain recorder. Finally, the method of radial basis function (RBF) with tapes thin due to higher r value and lower RMSE and MAE was chosen as the best interpolation method. According to the temporal and spatial distribution erosivity factor in Fars province, the maximum amount of erosivity factor was observed in north and the lowest was in east and north east of province. Also, 44% of province area has medium erosion and 10% is subjected to high erosion.

Areas of the earth, which are covered by limestone formations and dissolved by water flows, are called karst areas. Due to the fact that karst forms play an important role in water resources, tourism and development activities, their study is considered a necessity. Darparchin basin is one of the sub-basins of the Bidvaz River in northeastern of Iran, that due to the calcareous formations, various forms of karstic has formed in it. In this article, it is tried to study and identify the factors affecting on karst production in this basin, in order to control these factors in development activities and basin planning. In order to achieve this goal, after specifying the boundary of this basin, by using the library method, field studies, topographic maps, geological maps and satellite images, the karsts of this basin were identified and studied. Early studies have suggested that in the formation of karsts in this basin, factors such as lithology, hydrology, tectonic activity, and climate have played a greater role. After studying these factors, lithology was found to be effective in shaping the basin through dissolution, porosity, fracture and type of rocks coating. In terms of hydrology, the high water dissolution capacity of this basin and the lack of conformity of its sub branches with the geological structure played a role in this field. Also, the ranking of this basin revealed that the largest and most diverse forms of karst in the basin formed in its high ranks. In terms of tectonics, the three sides of the basin are surrounded by faults, the fault of Hame Ghaji in the north and Ardaghan fault in the south of the basin has facilitated the process of forming the groove and hammer carneys in this basin. Also, the force exerted by faults has damaged the rocks and provided the situation to dissolve them by water penetration and created karstic forms. Regarding the effects of climate, it has been found that among the climate parameters, the temperature and precipitation had a more important role. Temperature through different forms of weathering and precipitation through its influence on the formation of honeydew carneys, rainfall carneys and vegetation cover has played their role in this respect.