JOURNAL OF SUSTAINABLE GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT (THE ECONOMIC RESEARCH)
Year:2015 | Volume:15 | Issue:2|Papers Count:12

In this paper, we construct a Symmetric Input-Output Table (SIOT), which has no negative elements and preserves balance of table. For this purpose, we apply Almon's mathematical algorithm and use the Make and Use Matrices of 2001, which are provided by the Statistical Center of Iran (SCI). The estimated SIOT is compared with the SIOT of SCI. Our findings reveal that required adjustments in SIOT derived by Almon's algorithm are less than adjustments made by the SCI for eliminating negative elements. We propose this method for the calculation of future Input-output Tables of Iran.

The consumption expenditure is a key element of macroeconomic analyses, which accounts for considerable share of aggregate demand in Iran. Any effort for forecasting the future consumption trend is of special importance for policy-makers. In this paper, we specify a consumption model relying on theoretical basics in order to obtain desirable forecasts. On the basis of Duesenberry and Friedman consumption theories, we use genetic algorithm (GA) and particle swarm optimization (PSO) algorithm to simulate Iranians consumption during 1973-2009. Then we select the superior model in terms of prediction power criteria and forecast consumption until 2025. According to the results, the PSO algorithm is efficient and accurate in forecasting consumption; and consumption behavior of Iranians is consistent with Duesenberry theory. In addition, the simulations by exponential consumption model indicate increasing average propensity to consume until 2025.

Higher education attainment and labour force participation, especially among females, have been increasing for the past decades in Iran. If labour market is not flexible enough to adjust with the new trends, it may have negative effect on female education and participation rate. In this paper, we investigate the effects of higher education attainment on labour force participation, with an emphasis on female education in Iran using the data from the household budget surveys for the period 2001-2007. We use a logit model with cross section and pooled data and control for personal and household characteristics such as age, gender, marriage, and family income. Our findings show that participation rate is at maximum for middle-aged groups, and the married people are of more participation rates in labor market than current and former singles. The results also indicate that probability of labour force participation increases with the level of education especially for females and decreases with the family income.

Nowadays, different methods are used to calculate the capital stock in Iran. For example, the Central Bank uses permanent inventory method (PIM) to calculate the capital stock, however the researchers have used the production function method or the method of the ratio of capital to production in different periods. The present study aims at estimating the capital stock in Iran’s economic sectors. By comparing the results of permanent inventory method (PIM) and production function method, it is observed that the estimations by production function method are more suitable due to the data limitations. The same method was applied for the U.S. regarding data limitations and estimations were compared with the U.S capital stock; and once again the production function method was selected. It is found that the depreciation rates in agriculture, industry and mining, building, services, oil and gas, and water and electricity are 5.8, 4.9, 7.8, 3.5, 6.3, and 4.1 per cent, respectively. In order to make the depreciation rate more reliable, these rates were compared with the similar researches in Iran and a close relationship was found among them.

Productivity improvement is considered as one of the important strategies for providing economic growth and raising firms’ competitiveness. In this study, using the Divisia method, first the total factor productivity has been calculated during 2003-2009 and then the effects of trade openness, energy consumption and human capital on the total factor productivity has been investigated within subsectors of Iran’s industry. The estimation results using panel data model indicate that the trade openness, energy consumption and human capital have positive and significant effects on the total factor productivity. Meanwhile, the effect of skilled and experienced workers on the total factor productivity is stronger than educated workers.

Historically, the mankind has benefited from social capital in his collective life course implicitly and unconsciously. Nowadays, the concept of social capital has been included in the center of economy and community. The communities need to identify the framework of social capital and its consequences in order to overcome recession and deterioration. The relationship among socioeconomic indicators and social capital is one of the most important effects and interactions of social capital. In this article we try to identify the interaction between social capital and human development in the provinces of Iran. To do this, we use vector autoregressive panel data for the period 2000-2009. The results show that social capital has a positive effect on human development in the Iran’s provinces. On the other side, human development will generate social capital strata in the country.

In this study, to find the relationship between the government budget deficit and trade balance in Iran, a structural macro-econometric model is set up. In the model, government consumption expenditure increased by 20 percent annually during 2001-2010, so the government budget deficit increased relative to the baseline. The financing methods of budget deficit and relevant effects on trade balance were analyzed in 4 options. The results indicate that government budget deficit increases by adopting expansionary fiscal policy in all options. If the budget deficit is financed by borrowing from the central bank (the first option), it will raise the monetary base and finally worsen the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If the budget deficit is financed by selling participation bonds to the public (the second option), it will reduce aggregate demand and finally improve the trade balance and non-oil trade balance compared to the baseline. If direct taxes and government spending are increased by the same amount (the third option), private consumption will decrease; and trade balance and non-oil trade balance will be deteriorated compared to the baseline. Finally, if the budget deficit is financed by the withdrawal of foreign currency reserves (the fourth option), oil revenues will increase, as a result the trade balance will be improved and the non-oil trade balance will be exacerbated compared to the baseline.

In order to study the effects of subsidies targeted plan on Iran agricultural sector, a regional agricultural sector model is made. For this purpose, Iran is divided into 9 equal radar regions agro-climatologically. Then agricultural sector is modeled within 14 commodity groups and 23 production activities using positive mathematical programming (PMP) method and applying generalized maximum entropy (GME) approach. The results indicate that making subsidies targeted by increasing prices of inputs (irrigation water, fertility, pesticide and machinery), escalating energy prices for poultry and dairy farms and raising transportation cost, leads to decrease total surplus of agricultural sector, decrease in many crop and livestock activity levels in different regions, increase in prices, decrease in consumption and exports and increase in imports of some agricultural products. According to the results, if subsidies targeted policy is mixed with support payments to producers, dependent on amount of support payment, the social surplus of agricultural sector may decrease or increase. A support payment equal to 25 percent of production costs can compensate losses of producers due to targeted subsidies, transmit loss of social welfare to zero and decrease volatility of economic variables such as activity levels, price and quantity of consumption of commodity groups.

This study investigates the time-varying correlations among oil and coin prices, and exchange rate in Iran. Since investment is a key factor in economic growth and development, so the necessary funds should be provided and directed towards manufacturing and industrial sectors. In addition, understanding the relationships among financial variables allows to the investor to reduce overall portfolio risk without harming to the return on investment. In this paper we use monthly data of the oil and coin prices, and exchange rate in Iran over the period 1991: 3 to 2011: 2 and examine time-varying correlations using Dynamic Conditional Correlation - Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (DCC-GARCH) approach by G@RCH6 software. The analyses made in milieu of the world financial crisis (2008) show that the conditional correlations among assets are time-varying and world financial crisis causes significant changes in dynamic relationships among assets under study in Iran.

The economic distance refers to the ease or difficulty for goods, services, labor, capital, information, and ideas to traverse space. This variable affects the regional economic growth through influencing location of firms, knowledge spillover and market size. This paper examines the effects of economic distance on regional economic growth by using Dynamic Panel Data model for 28 provinces of Iran over the period 2000-2009. The results show that economic distance has negative effect on regional economic growth.