UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME RAINFALL INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: KHORASAN-RAZAVI PROVINCE

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SEYED KABOLI H.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2016 | Volume:12 | Issue:2 Page(s): 93-103

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Title

UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME RAINFALL INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: KHORASAN-RAZAVI PROVINCE

Author(s)

SEYED KABOLI H. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

EXTREME RAINFALLQ2

CLIMATE CHANGEQ2

KHORASAN-RAZAVIQ2

DOWNSCALINGQ2

UNCERTAINTYQ1

Abstract

Global warning has caused the characteristics of EXTREME RAINFALL to be changed out of the internal variability range of climate. In this research an analysis is presented for the variation of rainfall intensity, duration, and frequency (IDF) in KHORASAN-RAZAVI province under 10 climate scenarios derived from the global climate models and A1B emission scenario for 2021-2040 period. The IDF values for 23 rain gages is projected under future climate scenarios in 3 risk levels (%25, %50 and %75) by a proposed combined approach consisted of: (1) developing a nonparametric DOWNSCALING model to project the future daily rainfall in arid and semi-arid regions, and (2) establishing frequency-quantile relationships between the t-hour and daily rainfall based on the annual maximum for estimating the IDF values. Under the risk level of %50 the results show a wide range of variation in rainfall intensity between -23% to +7.3% relative to baseline (1993-2012). Short duration rainfalls change in more positive range than long-durations and for return periods of more than 10-year the range of changes will be wider in this area. Generally, central and southern regions will be received slighter increase compared to the northern regions. Also, the high rainfall regions will face a more severe flooding while the low rainfall regions will suffer from a more severe decrease. Furthermore, in low risk level the rainfall intensity will be increased in the future period which can be alerting for design of hydraulic infrastructures of high importance.

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APA: Copy

SEYED KABOLI, H.. (2016). UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME RAINFALL INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: KHORASAN-RAZAVI PROVINCE. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 12(2), 93-103. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100115/en

Vancouver: Copy

SEYED KABOLI H.. UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME RAINFALL INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: KHORASAN-RAZAVI PROVINCE. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2016;12(2):93-103. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100115/en

IEEE: Copy

H. SEYED KABOLI, “UNCERTAINTY OF EXTREME RAINFALL INTENSITY AND FREQUENCY UNDER FUTURE CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT: KHORASAN-RAZAVI PROVINCE,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 12, no. 2, pp. 93–103, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100115/en

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