Investigating the Hydropower Plants Profitability Using System Dynamics Approach

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JAMALMANESH A.; KHODAPARAST MASHHADI M.; SEIFI A.; FALAHI M.A.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2019 | Volume:14 | Issue:5 Page(s): 39-53

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Title

Investigating the Hydropower Plants Profitability Using System Dynamics Approach

Author(s)

JAMALMANESH A. | KHODAPARAST MASHHADI M. | SEIFI A. | FALAHI M.A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Production-Profitability ModelQ1

System DynamicsQ1

Hydropower PlantsQ1

Monte Carlo MethodsQ3

Abstract

Iran's electricity industry is looking for better more efficient ways in generation, transmission and distribution of electrical power in recent years. The industry rules have changed to become more competitive. With uncertainty of market price, water inflow, the beneficiary's behavior, access to information and corresponding increased risk, it is increasingly challenging for hydroelectric energy producers to maximize the profit in electricity market. In this situation, pursue a decision-making procedure for optimum operating in power plants is one of the main concerns. For this purpose, time series of average monthly data during 2005– 2015 was used and profit is forecasted for twenty-four months. For this study, energy data from Karun1 HPP on Karun River was used. Firstly, Gó mes-Maravall model was used to predict the electricity price and river inflow. Then, using an ARIMA model, operating and maintenance cost in the hydropower plant was estimated. In this research the hydropower plant profitability was estimated using System Dynamics approach and multiple scenarios like climate change and penalty costs scenarios.

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APA: Copy

JAMALMANESH, A., KHODAPARAST MASHHADI, M., SEIFI, A., & FALAHI, M.A.. (2019). Investigating the Hydropower Plants Profitability Using System Dynamics Approach. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 14(5 ), 39-53. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/100198/en

Vancouver: Copy

JAMALMANESH A., KHODAPARAST MASHHADI M., SEIFI A., FALAHI M.A.. Investigating the Hydropower Plants Profitability Using System Dynamics Approach. IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2019;14(5 ):39-53. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/100198/en

IEEE: Copy

A. JAMALMANESH, M. KHODAPARAST MASHHADI, A. SEIFI, and M.A. FALAHI, “Investigating the Hydropower Plants Profitability Using System Dynamics Approach,” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 14, no. 5 , pp. 39–53, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/100198/en

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