Mathematical Model of Novel COVID-19 and Its Transmission Dynamics

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Gurmu E.D.; Batu G.B.; Wameko M.S.

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ISSN: 2588-4824

Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL MODELLING & COMPUTATION Year:2020 | Volume:10 | Issue:2 Page(s): 141-159

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Title

Mathematical Model of Novel COVID-19 and Its Transmission Dynamics

Author(s)

Gurmu E.D. | Batu G.B. | Wameko M.S. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

COVID-19

Model

Stability

Sensitivity

Reproduction number

Abstract

In this paper, we formulated a dynamical Model of COVID-19 to describe the transmission dynamics of the disease. The well possedness of the formulated Model equations was proved. Both local and global Stability of the disease free equilibrium and endemic equilibrium point of the Model equation was established using basic Reproduction number. The results show that, if the basic Reproduction number is less than one then the solution converges to the disease free steady state i. e. the disease free equilibrium is asymptotically stable. The endemic states are considered to exist when the basic Reproduction number for each disease is greater than one. Numerical simulation carried out on the Model revealed that an increase in level of contact rate among individuals has an effect on reducing the prevalence of COVID-19 and COVID-19 disease. Furthermore, Sensitivity analysis of the Model equation was performed on the key parameters to find out their relative significance and potential impact on the transmission dynamics of COVID-19.

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APA: Copy

Gurmu, E.D., Batu, G.B., & Wameko, M.S.. (2020). Mathematical Model of Novel COVID-19 and Its Transmission Dynamics. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL MODELLING & COMPUTATION, 10(2), 141-159. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/1001988/en

Vancouver: Copy

Gurmu E.D., Batu G.B., Wameko M.S.. Mathematical Model of Novel COVID-19 and Its Transmission Dynamics. INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL MODELLING & COMPUTATION[Internet]. 2020;10(2):141-159. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/1001988/en

IEEE: Copy

E.D. Gurmu, G.B. Batu, and M.S. Wameko, “Mathematical Model of Novel COVID-19 and Its Transmission Dynamics,” INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF MATHEMATICAL MODELLING & COMPUTATION, vol. 10, no. 2, pp. 141–159, 2020, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/1001988/en

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