Modeling of Daily Rainfall Sequence and Extreme Values in the East Azerbaijan Province

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SHAHRAKI N.; MAROFI S.; GHAZANFARI MOGHADAM M.S.

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Year:2019 | Volume:13 | Issue:4 Page(s): 1075-1086

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Title

Modeling of Daily Rainfall Sequence and Extreme Values in the East Azerbaijan Province

Author(s)

SHAHRAKI N. | MAROFI S. | GHAZANFARI MOGHADAM M.S. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Extreme rainfallQ1

Markov chainQ1

Piecewise Exponential-generalized Pareto distributionQ1

Semiarid extra coldQ1

Abstract

In this study using 4 synoptic stations of semi-arid extra cold climate of east Azerbaijan province were used in order to modeling extreme values and occurrence rainfall. To this aim, a stochastic rainfall time series generation consisting of first, second and third-order Markov models and the generalized Pareto and Exponential distribution density functions were used for reproducing amount rainfall. Also, the Exponential-generalized Pareto density function was used to improve the estimation of extreme values. The proposed model essentially was a piecewise distribution approach created by parametrically modeling the tails (i. e. above a threshold) of the distribution using a generalized Pareto, , and the rest Exponential density estimation methods. The results Based on the AIC criterion indicated that the first-order Markov performs relatively better than another model for daily rainfall occurrence. The average of preference first-order Markov chain compared with second and third order was 79 and 66% for all study stations, respectively. Also, results from RMSE showed that Exponentialgeneralized Pareto probability density performs better to reproduce extreme daily rainfall comparing another distribution. The RMSE criterion is varying between 0. 0015 to 0. 0017 for Piecewise Exponential-generalized Pareto distribution to estimate extreme daily rainfall daily rainfall.

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APA: Copy

SHAHRAKI, N., MAROFI, S., & GHAZANFARI MOGHADAM, M.S.. (2019). Modeling of Daily Rainfall Sequence and Extreme Values in the East Azerbaijan Province. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, 13(4 ), 1075-1086. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/131722/en

Vancouver: Copy

SHAHRAKI N., MAROFI S., GHAZANFARI MOGHADAM M.S.. Modeling of Daily Rainfall Sequence and Extreme Values in the East Azerbaijan Province. IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE[Internet]. 2019;13(4 ):1075-1086. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/131722/en

IEEE: Copy

N. SHAHRAKI, S. MAROFI, and M.S. GHAZANFARI MOGHADAM, “Modeling of Daily Rainfall Sequence and Extreme Values in the East Azerbaijan Province,” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, vol. 13, no. 4 , pp. 1075–1086, 2019, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/131722/en

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