UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELING BY USING GENERALIZED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION METHOD (CASE STUDY: BOJNOURD PLAIN)

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ABEDINI M.; ZIAI A.N.; SHAFIEI M.; GHAHRAMAN B.; ANSARI H.; MESHKINI J.

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Journal: Iranian Journal of Irrigation and Drainage Year:2017 | Volume:10 | Issue:6 Page(s): 755-769

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Title

UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELING BY USING GENERALIZED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION METHOD (CASE STUDY: BOJNOURD PLAIN)

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Keywords

GLUEQ2

INVERSE MODELINGQ2

MODFLOWQ2

Abstract

Parameter uncertainty arises uncertainty in the result of model performance and prediction of a system behavior. Therefore uncertainty estimation into modeling is inevitable. This study aimed to analyze and quantify amounts of uncertainty in model parameters of Bojnurd aquifer with an area of 65.2 km2 due to the highly uncertain available data and the increasing importance of Bojunrd aquifer caused by the expansion of its urban areas to the plains. A steady-state groundwater flow model of Bojnurd aquifer was developed and calibrated employing ten years of data (1380-1390) and 11 observation wells. The prior distributions of model parameters including hydraulic conductivity and recharge were assumed uniform and uncertainty bounds and posterior distributions were derived within the generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) framework. The results showed high amounts of uncertainty in recharge parameters. The pre and posterior distributions does not showed a significant change. Hydraulic conductivity as the most sensitive parameters, reduced the uncertainty of the model output. Most of the observed head values fall within 95% confidence interval and only a few number of points were out of it. It can be concluded that the GLUE approach has been successfully applied to Bojnurd MODFLOW model and the modeling results are reliable to decision makers for water resources management projects.

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APA: Copy

ABEDINI, M., ZIAI, A.N., SHAFIEI, M., GHAHRAMAN, B., ANSARI, H., & MESHKINI, J.. (2017). UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELING BY USING GENERALIZED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION METHOD (CASE STUDY: BOJNOURD PLAIN). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, 10(6 ), 755-769. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/131765/en

Vancouver: Copy

ABEDINI M., ZIAI A.N., SHAFIEI M., GHAHRAMAN B., ANSARI H., MESHKINI J.. UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELING BY USING GENERALIZED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION METHOD (CASE STUDY: BOJNOURD PLAIN). IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE[Internet]. 2017;10(6 ):755-769. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/131765/en

IEEE: Copy

M. ABEDINI, A.N. ZIAI, M. SHAFIEI, B. GHAHRAMAN, H. ANSARI, and J. MESHKINI, “UNCERTAINTY ASSESSMENT OF GROUNDWATER FLOW MODELING BY USING GENERALIZED LIKELIHOOD UNCERTAINTY ESTIMATION METHOD (CASE STUDY: BOJNOURD PLAIN),” IRANIAN JOURNAL OF IRRIGATION AND DRAINAGE, vol. 10, no. 6 , pp. 755–769, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/131765/en

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