A FORECASTING MODEL FOR POTATO LATE BLIGHT IN GORGAN

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AGHAJANI M.A.

مرکز اطلاعات علمی Scientific Information Database (SID) - Trusted Source for Research and Academic Resources

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Journal: Journal of Plant Production Research Year:2015 | Volume:21 | Issue:4 Page(s): 99-116

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Title

A FORECASTING MODEL FOR POTATO LATE BLIGHT IN GORGAN

Author(s)

AGHAJANI M.A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

POTATOQ1

LATE BLIGHTQ2

PHYTOPHTHORA INFESTANSQ2

FORECASTINGQ2

WETHER VARIABLESQ2

Abstract

Late blight, caused by PHYTOPHTHORA INFESTANS, is one of the most important diseases of POTATO in the world and Iran, especially in Golestan province. 16 models have introduced for FORECASTING the disease in the world, sofar. In order to developing a FORECASTING model, wether and disease occurrence data during the recent 10 years were used.then, 22 variables were built using daily temperature, relative humidity and percipitation data during March 20 to April 19. Study of these variables using logistic regression and discriminant analysis showed that four variables nTRH10, nTRHPR10, nRH10 and nTRHP20 were strongly ralated with occurrence of disease. Four FORECASTING models were developed for prediction of disease occurrence, based on these variables. Variable nTRH10 had the most strong relation with disease occurrence, and its mean values were 45 and 118.75 in years without and with disease, respectively. Prediction accuracy of the final model was 100%.

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APA: Copy

AGHAJANI, M.A.. (2015). A FORECASTING MODEL FOR POTATO LATE BLIGHT IN GORGAN. JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), 21(4), 99-116. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/155934/en

Vancouver: Copy

AGHAJANI M.A.. A FORECASTING MODEL FOR POTATO LATE BLIGHT IN GORGAN. JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES)[Internet]. 2015;21(4):99-116. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/155934/en

IEEE: Copy

M.A. AGHAJANI, “A FORECASTING MODEL FOR POTATO LATE BLIGHT IN GORGAN,” JOURNAL OF PLANT PRODUCTION (JOURNAL OF AGRICULTURAL SCIENCES AND NATURAL RESOURCES), vol. 21, no. 4, pp. 99–116, 2015, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/155934/en

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