ANALYZING AND FORECASTING RAILWAY PASSENGER DEMAND WITH TIME SERIES ALGORITHM

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AFANDI ZADE SHAHRIYAR; RAHIMI AMIR MASOUD; TALAIE ALIASGHAR; SAFARI EHRAM

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Paper Information

Journal: AMIRKABIR JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING (AMIRKABIR) Year:2011 | Volume:43 | Issue:1 Page(s): 9-17

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Information Journal Paper

Title

ANALYZING AND FORECASTING RAILWAY PASSENGER DEMAND WITH TIME SERIES ALGORITHM

Author(s)

AFANDI ZADE SHAHRIYAR | RAHIMI AMIR MASOUD | TALAIE ALIASGHAR | SAFARI EHRAM | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

PASSENGER DEMAND FORECASTINGQ2

RAILWAY NETWORKQ2

TIME SERIESQ2

Abstract

Regarding the importance of the supply management for existing transportation facilities and allocating these resources in the rail transportation, travel demand forecasting has a very important role. In this paper the TIME SERIES models are used to forecast passenger demand in Iranian RAILWAY NETWORK.Before estimation, model selection and forecasting, the stationary and non-stationary TIME SERIES models of railway passenger demand are analyzed with the tests of unit root and seasonal unit root. In the modeling part the Box-Jenkins method are used that the main reason for using them was the strong correlation between the data in several months and seasons and repeating exact trends in the fixed basis of time. The Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) criteria are used in order to evaluate the performance of models. The final fitted models are in conformity with family of seasonally ARIMA, and have at least 92 percent accuracy in the forecasting.

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APA: Copy

AFANDI ZADE, SHAHRIYAR, RAHIMI, AMIR MASOUD, TALAIE, ALIASGHAR, & SAFARI, EHRAM. (2011). ANALYZING AND FORECASTING RAILWAY PASSENGER DEMAND WITH TIME SERIES ALGORITHM. AMIRKABIR JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING (AMIRKABIR), 43(1), 9-17. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/165840/en

Vancouver: Copy

AFANDI ZADE SHAHRIYAR, RAHIMI AMIR MASOUD, TALAIE ALIASGHAR, SAFARI EHRAM. ANALYZING AND FORECASTING RAILWAY PASSENGER DEMAND WITH TIME SERIES ALGORITHM. AMIRKABIR JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING (AMIRKABIR)[Internet]. 2011;43(1):9-17. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/165840/en

IEEE: Copy

SHAHRIYAR AFANDI ZADE, AMIR MASOUD RAHIMI, ALIASGHAR TALAIE, and EHRAM SAFARI, “ANALYZING AND FORECASTING RAILWAY PASSENGER DEMAND WITH TIME SERIES ALGORITHM,” AMIRKABIR JOURNAL OF CIVIL ENGINEERING (AMIRKABIR), vol. 43, no. 1, pp. 9–17, 2011, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/165840/en

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