Analysis the Relationship between Selected Rail Transport Indicators and the Growth of the Transportation Sector’s Value Added Using Vector Autoregressive Model

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Shirali Shirin; Derakhshan Horeh Shahrzad

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF RAILWAY RESEARCH Year:2025 | Volume:12 | Issue:2 Page(s): 23-33

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Title

Analysis the Relationship between Selected Rail Transport Indicators and the Growth of the Transportation Sector’s Value Added Using Vector Autoregressive Model

Author(s)

Shirali Shirin | Derakhshan Horeh Shahrzad | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

Rail Transport Indicators

The Growth of the Transportation Sector’s Value added

Vector Autoregressive Model

Johansen Juselius cointegration approach

the Vector Error Correction Model.

Abstract

Transportation, as a critical sub-sector of the communication infrastructure, constitutes a fundamental pillar of economic development and policy planning. Among the various modes of transportation, rail transport holds a crucial role. Access to smooth, safe, high-speed, efficient and effective rail systems can substantially influence trade development, price stabilization, optimal allocation of scarce resources, increased competition, efficient labor distribution and overall economic development. Accordingly, this study investigates the relationship between selected rail transport indicators and the growth of the transportation sector’s value added in Iran over the period 1997–2023 by using the Vector Autoregressive (VAR) model. The Johansen-Juselius cointegration approach is utilized to estimate the long-run relationships among the variables. The Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) is employed to examine the convergence of the model’s variables and analyzes the short and long-run relationships among them. The obtained results confirm the presence of a long-run relationship among the variables. The number of locomotives, total railway track length, volume of freight transported, and the exchange rate demonstrates a positive influence on the growth of the transportation sector’s value added. Conversely, the inflation rate negatively affects this indicator. The estimated error correction coefficient is 0.12 and indicates that the model converges towards equilibrium, and approximately 8 periods are required to eliminate deviations and align the short-run equilibrium with the long-run steady state.

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