Improving the Estimation of the Impact of the IOD-Modulated MJO on the Autumnal Precipitation Variability over Iran by Simultaneously Utilizing the RMM and RM-RMM Indices

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Mansouri Sharifoddin

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Journal Paper

Paper Information

Journal: JOURNAL OF WATER RESOURCES ENGINEERING Year:2025 | Volume:18 | Issue:66 Page(s): 69-90

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Title

Improving the Estimation of the Impact of the IOD-Modulated MJO on the Autumnal Precipitation Variability over Iran by Simultaneously Utilizing the RMM and RM-RMM Indices

Author(s)

Mansouri Sharifoddin | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

RMM index

RM-RMM index

IOD state

Bootstrap method

False discovery rate

Abstract

Introduction: In the present study, owing to the substantial effect of the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) on the activity of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO), the focus is on improving the estimation of the influence of the IOD on the MJO-related precipitation variabilities over Iran during the October-to-November (ON) periods which coincide with the peak activity of the IOD. Methods: This is achieved by comparing the corresponding active phases of the Real-time Multi-variate MJO (RMM) and Regionally Modified RMM (RM-RMM) indices during the Positive, Neutral and Negative IOD events, separately. Accordingly, in addition to performing a localized significance test at each grid point, the field significance of these tests was also assessed within the study region, Iran, by using the False Discovery Rate (FDR) method. Findings: The significant positive (negative) differences in the precipitation anomaly and occurrence probability are detected during the phases 8 and 1 (phase 4) of the RM-RMM and RMM indices over some parts of Iran, during the Positive IOD (Negative) IOD event which intensifies the MJO&rsquo, s convection (suppression) and the lower-level convergence (divergence) of the moisture over the western Indian Ocean. However, during the Neutral IOD event no significant precipitation difference between the pertinent phases is observed. These findings suggest that by forecasting the interannual variations in the IOD and anticipating the associated precipitation differences between the equivalent phases of the RM-RMM and RMM indices, there is potential to increase the accuracy of the precipitation forecasts for Iran.

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