ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTY AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE PROBABILITY OF THE JAMISHAN DAM INFLOW FREQUENCY

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HAFEZPARAST MARYAM; BAFKAR ALIJAN; PANAHI ELAHE

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Journal: JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES CONSERVATION Year:2017 | Volume:6 | Issue:3 Page(s): 19-41

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Title

ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTY AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE PROBABILITY OF THE JAMISHAN DAM INFLOW FREQUENCY

Author(s)

HAFEZPARAST MARYAM | BAFKAR ALIJAN | PANAHI ELAHE | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ1

IHACRESQ2

MARKOV CHAINQ1

UNCERTAINTYQ2

Abstract

In order to assess the UNCERTAINTY of CLIMATE CHANGE and its effect on the discharge into the Jamishan dam located in the northwestern province of Kermanshah changes in temperature and precipitation parameters in the periods 2020-2039 and 2040-2059 were calculated using a combination of weighted average seven climate model output under three emission scenarios A1B, B1 and A2 respectively, The daily rainfall and temperature forecasts for future periods under each climate scenario was entered to rainfall-runoff calibrated and validated model ‘IHACRES’ and the daily runoff of future periods under each scenario was predicted. In order to determine periods of high-water and water shortage in the status quo and future periods, using MARKOV CHAIN transition probability matrix, the Frequency months of wet, normal and drought were calculated. The results showed that in the period 2020-2039, annual rainfall decreases and temperature increases. In the period 2040-2059 the annual temperature changes are most severe between -0.66 and +2oC. A1B and B1 scenarios show annual rainfall and runoff reduction and increase in the A2 scenario.

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APA: Copy

HAFEZPARAST, MARYAM, BAFKAR, ALIJAN, & PANAHI, ELAHE. (2017). ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTY AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE PROBABILITY OF THE JAMISHAN DAM INFLOW FREQUENCY. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES CONSERVATION, 6(3), 19-41. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/232148/en

Vancouver: Copy

HAFEZPARAST MARYAM, BAFKAR ALIJAN, PANAHI ELAHE. ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTY AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE PROBABILITY OF THE JAMISHAN DAM INFLOW FREQUENCY. JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES CONSERVATION[Internet]. 2017;6(3):19-41. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/232148/en

IEEE: Copy

MARYAM HAFEZPARAST, ALIJAN BAFKAR, and ELAHE PANAHI, “ASSESSMENT OF CLIMATE CHANGE UNCERTAINTY AND ITS EFFECTS ON THE PROBABILITY OF THE JAMISHAN DAM INFLOW FREQUENCY,” JOURNAL OF WATER AND SOIL RESOURCES CONSERVATION, vol. 6, no. 3, pp. 19–41, 2017, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/232148/en

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