COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF DIFFERENT SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF IN SEMI-ARID BASINS (CASE STUDY: AZAM HARAT RIVER BASIN)

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YAGHOBI M.; MASSAH BAVANI A.

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Journal: IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH Year:2016 | Volume:11 | Issue:3 (34) Page(s): 113-130

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Title

COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF DIFFERENT SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF IN SEMI-ARID BASINS (CASE STUDY: AZAM HARAT RIVER BASIN)

Author(s)

YAGHOBI M. | MASSAH BAVANI A. | Issue Writer Certificate

Keywords

CLIMATE CHANGEQ1

RUNOFFQ2

HYDROLOGICAL MODELSQ2

UNCERTAINTYQ2

STATISTICAL DOWNSCALINGQ2

Abstract

Present study assess the impact of CLIMATE CHANGE on the AZAM-HARAT River basin RUNOFF in the 2015-2030 period considering the sources of UNCERTAINTY in adjustment of model parameters for two rainfall-runoff models of IHACRES and HEC-HMS, as well as A1B, A2 and B1 greenhouse gasses emission scenarios of AOGCM models, and LARS-WG and SDSM downscaling models. First in calibration and verification of rainfall-runoff models, sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was done. Then the climatic variables of 15 AOGCM models and climatic scenario were downscaled using LARS-WG model and these data were introduced to each of the HYDROLOGICAL MODELS to determine the RUNOFF variation ranges. Results showed that the temperature in the future period will increase about 1.5C and also the amount and distribution of the rainfall will vary greatly. These variations in rainfall will result in changes in the RUNOFF. The results showed that the UNCERTAINTY related to HYDROLOGICAL MODELS in some months is higher than AOGCM models and greenhouse gases emission scenarios which is due to the critical parameters in the structure of the HYDROLOGICAL MODELS. To assess downscaling UNCERTAINTY, data of HadCM3-A2 model were downscaled using LARS-WG and SDSM models. The results showed that the UNCERTAINTY of HYDROLOGICAL MODELS is much greater than that in the downscaling methods. It is also shown that the uncertainties in the AOGCM models are larger than greenhouse gases emissions scenarios.

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APA: Copy

YAGHOBI, M., & MASSAH BAVANI, A.. (2016). COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF DIFFERENT SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF IN SEMI-ARID BASINS (CASE STUDY: AZAM HARAT RIVER BASIN). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 11(3 (34)), 113-130. SID. https://sid.ir/paper/99949/en

Vancouver: Copy

YAGHOBI M., MASSAH BAVANI A.. COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF DIFFERENT SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF IN SEMI-ARID BASINS (CASE STUDY: AZAM HARAT RIVER BASIN). IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH[Internet]. 2016;11(3 (34)):113-130. Available from: https://sid.ir/paper/99949/en

IEEE: Copy

M. YAGHOBI, and A. MASSAH BAVANI, “COMPARISON AND EVALUATION OF DIFFERENT SOURCES OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE STUDY OF CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACT ON RUNOFF IN SEMI-ARID BASINS (CASE STUDY: AZAM HARAT RIVER BASIN),” IRAN-WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, vol. 11, no. 3 (34), pp. 113–130, 2016, [Online]. Available: https://sid.ir/paper/99949/en

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